The Calgary Flames will wrap up their six-game road trip when they play the Dallas Stars on Thursday evening. The Flames have put up a solid 2-2-1 record in the first give games of the road trip, which has included matchups versus several of the league’s best home teams.
The Stars are 23-7-1 on home ice this season, and have collected more points than any other team since the holiday break with a record of 20-6-2.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Flames vs. Stars odds

  • Flames Moneyline Odds: +197
  • Stars Moneyline Odds: -223
  • Puck Line Odds: Flames +1.5 (-130), Stars -1.5 (+115)
  • Game Total: Over 6 -105, Under 6 -101
    *Odds courtesy of Pinnacle and are subject to change.

Calgary Flames

The Flames were able to expose the Philadelphia Flyers’ league-worst goaltending on Tuesday, earning two critical points with a 6-3 victory. It was just the third time Calgary had scored more than five goals this season, and the first time since December 21st. The Flames generated 34 shots on goal, but only six were considered high-danger scoring chances.
Whether the Flames are able to win this matchup or not, earning five points from this nightmare road trip has to be viewed as a success, and keeps them in a solid spot to earn the final playoff spot in the West. All indications continue to be that GM Craig Conroy will stand pat at the trade deadline, and allow his overachieving roster to continue pushing for a playoff spot.
While you have to respect Conroy’s desire to allow a roster which has played its heart out all year to finish the season together, choosing to keep Rasmus Andersson, in particular, could prove to be a huge mistake.
Andersson is entering the stage of his career where the majority of players fall into a steep decline, and has already been struggling for a lengthy period of play. Based on Seth Jones’ recent trade to the Florida Panthers, Andersson could net a significant return. On top of the possible return Andersson would likely garner, it’s entirely possible that signing Andersson to a long-term deal ends up being a net loss anyways.
The Flames were lucky to avoid a similarly disastrous situation with Elias Lindholm, whose contract now looks to be one of the worst in the league. While I’m not saying Andersson will fall off that badly, it seems possible that keeping Andersson ends up being a disastrous long-term decision. Even if Andersson does find his game moving forward, he will be in his early 30s by the time Calgary is in true contention.
Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold an expected goal share of 43.54%, and have allowed 29.93 shots against per 60. Analytics can fail to tell the whole story, but they are still a fairly strong indicator; the last 10 Stanley Cup champions have been teams averaging just over seventh place in expected goal share over the entire season.
The Flames are currently tied for last in goals scored per game this season, with an average of 2.59. They have proven the ability to win close games, but much of that comes down to the unreal play of Dustin Wolf in goal. Wolf holds a +12.0 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage in 37 games played this season.
It is possible that the team will opt to hand this start to Dan Vladar, who has bounced back with three straight high quality performances. Vladar holds a -1.3 GSAx and .894 save percentage in 24 appearances this season.

Dallas Stars

After falling in six games in each of the last two Western Conference Finals, the Stars look poised for another deep playoff run this season. They haven’t missed a beat since losing top defender Miro Heiskanen to injury, and could be a complete juggernaut once he is back in the fold.
Since Heiskanen’s injury, the Stars are 8-2-1 and hold a +17 goal differential in that span. They hold an expected goal share of 52.4% in those 11 matchups, and their highly-skilled offensive core has powered the team to a goal-per-game average of 4.63.
After entering the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament under difficult circumstances, Thomas Harley was excellent for Team Canada, having somewhat of a coming out party for those that have not watched many Stars games this season.
Harley has put up 14 points in 11 games since Heiskanen’s injury, including eight points in six games since the break. The Stars power play has succeeded on a league-leading 41.9% of opportunities in that span.
After surprisingly slow starts to the season, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson have both trended into top form. Hintz leads the league with 18 points since January 29th, while Robertson ranks sixth with 16 points.
Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. He holds a .911 save percentage and +9.4 GSAx in 44 appearances this season.

Best Bet for Flames vs Stars

The Flames will have their hands full in this matchup, as the Stars have been the league’s hottest team over the last third of the season. Dallas features a highly dynamic offensive attack, and holds an elite goaltender of its own in Oettinger. The Flames have shown plenty of fight all season long, but they could be running out of gas at the end of this long road trip, and this scheduling spot is favourable to the Stars.
If I were to place a bet involving a side it would be backing the Stars to cover the puck line at +110, but there looks to be more value in the prop market.
Robertson has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in nine of his last 10 games played, and continues to get a ton of opportunities playing on one of the league’s best lines, and best power play units. The Flames continue to allow a ton of shots against, and this looks like another good opportunity to back an opposing shooter, a strategy which has worked for us in each of the last two articles.
Best bet: Jason Robertson Over 2.5 shots on goal -125 (Pinnacle, Play to -130)