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Revising the Flames’ playoff runway

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Photo credit:Sergei Belski/USA Today Sports
Ryan Pike
1 year ago
The Calgary Flames have 26 games remaining in the 2020-21 season. They’re three points back of the last playoff spot, held by Montreal, with the Canadiens having a game in hand.
The playoff picture isn’t rosy, but it’s not exactly dire quite yet.

The table

(For each team, read across the rows.)
TeamPct.PtsGRTORWPGEDMMTLCGYVANOTT
Leafs.66740262-2-0
(6 GR)
5-1-1
(2 GR)
3-1-0
(6 GR)
3-1-0
(5 GR)
3-2-0
(4 GR)
3-2-1
(3 GR)
Jets.63338262-1-1
(6 GR)
2-3-0
(4 GR)
4-2-0
(3 GR)
3-1-1
(4 GR)
3-2-0
(4 GR)
4-1-0
(5 GR)
Oilers.60640232-5-0
(2 GR)
2-2-0
(5 GR)
1-2-0
(6 GR)
4-2-0
(4 GR)
3-2-0
(5 GR)
7-0-0
(2 GR)
Canadiens.58634271-2-1
(6 GR)
2-1-3
(3 GR)
2-1-0
(6 GR)
1-3-0
(5 GR)
5-0-2
(2 GR)
2-1-2
(5 GR)
Flames.51731261-2-1
(5 GR)
2-2-1
(4 GR)
2-4-0
(4 GR)
3-1-0
(5 GR)
4-2-0
(4 GR)
2-2-1
(4 GR)
Canucks.48532232-3-0
(4 GR)
2-2-1
(4 GR)
2-3-0
(5 GR)
2-5-0
(2 GR)
2-3-1
(4 GR)
5-0-0
(4 GR)
Senators.34823233-3-0
(3 GR)
1-3-1
(5 GR)
0-7-0
(2 GR)
3-2-0
(5 GR)
3-2-0
(4 GR)
0-3-2
(4 GR)

The road to 65 points

Here are the points percentages North Division teams need to achieve to hit 65 points, the generally accepted playoff cutline:
  • Toronto: .481
  • Winnipeg: .519
  • Edmonton: .543
  • Montreal: .574
  • Calgary: .654
  • Vancouver: .717
  • Ottawa: .913
The unique thing about the Flames schedule is that they still have a bunch of games left against, well, everybody. They’re below .500 in two season series (Toronto & Edmonton), at .500 in two (Winnipeg & Ottawa) and above .500 in two (Montreal & Vancouver).
If you look at the four current playoff teams, they’ve all won at least half of their season series. There’s enough runway left for the Flames to accomplish that – and honestly, none of their season series’ are completely out of reach.
That said, if you look at the sheer math of it all, they need to capture about two-thirds of their remaining points to make the playoffs. The clock is ticking, and the team that’s most vulnerable for them to catch at the moment is Montreal.

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