Revising the Flames’ playoff runway
By Ryan Pike
3 years agoThe Calgary Flames have 26 games remaining in the 2020-21 season. They’re three points back of the last playoff spot, held by Montreal, with the Canadiens having a game in hand.
The playoff picture isn’t rosy, but it’s not exactly dire quite yet.
The table
(For each team, read across the rows.)
| Team | Pct. | Pts | GR | TOR | WPG | EDM | MTL | CGY | VAN | OTT |
| Leafs | .667 | 40 | 26 | — | 2-2-0 (6 GR) | 5-1-1 (2 GR) | 3-1-0 (6 GR) | 3-1-0 (5 GR) | 3-2-0 (4 GR) | 3-2-1 (3 GR) |
| Jets | .633 | 38 | 26 | 2-1-1 (6 GR) | — | 2-3-0 (4 GR) | 4-2-0 (3 GR) | 3-1-1 (4 GR) | 3-2-0 (4 GR) | 4-1-0 (5 GR) |
| Oilers | .606 | 40 | 23 | 2-5-0 (2 GR) | 2-2-0 (5 GR) | — | 1-2-0 (6 GR) | 4-2-0 (4 GR) | 3-2-0 (5 GR) | 7-0-0 (2 GR) |
| Canadiens | .586 | 34 | 27 | 1-2-1 (6 GR) | 2-1-3 (3 GR) | 2-1-0 (6 GR) | — | 1-3-0 (5 GR) | 5-0-2 (2 GR) | 2-1-2 (5 GR) |
| Flames | .517 | 31 | 26 | 1-2-1 (5 GR) | 2-2-1 (4 GR) | 2-4-0 (4 GR) | 3-1-0 (5 GR) | — | 4-2-0 (4 GR) | 2-2-1 (4 GR) |
| Canucks | .485 | 32 | 23 | 2-3-0 (4 GR) | 2-2-1 (4 GR) | 2-3-0 (5 GR) | 2-5-0 (2 GR) | 2-3-1 (4 GR) | — | 5-0-0 (4 GR) |
| Senators | .348 | 23 | 23 | 3-3-0 (3 GR) | 1-3-1 (5 GR) | 0-7-0 (2 GR) | 3-2-0 (5 GR) | 3-2-0 (4 GR) | 0-3-2 (4 GR) | — |
The road to 65 points
Here are the points percentages North Division teams need to achieve to hit 65 points, the generally accepted playoff cutline:
- Toronto: .481
- Winnipeg: .519
- Edmonton: .543
- Montreal: .574
- Calgary: .654
- Vancouver: .717
- Ottawa: .913
The unique thing about the Flames schedule is that they still have a bunch of games left against, well, everybody. They’re below .500 in two season series (Toronto & Edmonton), at .500 in two (Winnipeg & Ottawa) and above .500 in two (Montreal & Vancouver).
If you look at the four current playoff teams, they’ve all won at least half of their season series. There’s enough runway left for the Flames to accomplish that – and honestly, none of their season series’ are completely out of reach.
That said, if you look at the sheer math of it all, they need to capture about two-thirds of their remaining points to make the playoffs. The clock is ticking, and the team that’s most vulnerable for them to catch at the moment is Montreal.
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