Rookies and the 20 Goal Plateau

-via halfaxdrunk

Flames’ rookie Sean Monahan has been the talk of Flames Town for much of the 2013-14 season. He was selected in the 2013 draft 6th overall by the Flames and made the team immediately out of camp. He did not disappoint in his first few months in the league, putting up 15 points in roughly 20 games. His game has trailed off since then but he’s still contributing on a Flames team that doesn’t score very much. In fact, he’s leading this Flames team in goals with his 14 on the season.

A few weeks ago I noted that, even though Monhan’s production has trailed off dramatically, he looks like he should hit the 20 goal mark, barring a significant injury. The Flames haven’t had a 20 goal rookie since Dion Phaneuf in 2006 and before that it was Jarome Iginla in 1997. That puts the kid in pretty good company.

Say what you will about Phaneuf but he’s one of the highest paid defensemen in the league, plays big minutes and regularly finishes in the top 20 in d-man scoring. And then there’s Iginla. We all know and love Jarome for what he did for the Flames for a decade. He may not be elite anymore but he certainly was a big time talent not too long ago.

With this in mind, I was curious how other 20 goal rookies around the league have fared after their rookie campaign. Specifically, I wanted to see what type of player they went on to be. To investigate, I compiled a list of all players that put up 20 or more goals in their rookie campaign, since the 2005 lockout.

In total, the list includes 45 players that put up 20+ goals in their rookie year. The table includes the player, goals (rookie year), points (rookie year), their goal/points ratio, the year they did it, their draft year and their shooting percentage that year. Monahan is highlighted in red at the top with his projected scoring totals for the end of the season, players that regularly play in the top six are highlighted in blue, players playing further down the depth chart are highlighted in pink and players now out of the league are highlighted in grey. The asterix indicates players from the shortened 2012-13 season who’s 48 game totals were estimated over 82 games.

What we find is that the vast majority of players, 75% in fact, have gone on to regularly play in the top six. Conversely, 14% are still recognizable players but not top six players and only 11% of the players could be considered a flash in the pan and are now out of the league. This suggests that if a player tallies 20 or more goals in his rookie year, there’s an 89% chance you have a player who, at the very least, is going to play significant minutes in the NHL for many years.

1st overall selections like Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos and P. Kane all made the list. The list also includes a number of players that have gone on to be very elite players without being drafted 1st overall. Names like Toews, Kopitar, Stastny, Carter, Vanek, Duchene, Skinner and Couture all put up north of 20 goals in their rookie campaign and have all progressed significantly since those outstanding rookie years. Newer players like Landeskog, Gallagher and Huberdeau are all doing well after their 1st year as well. So what does this mean for Monahan? Will he become a good NHLer?

 

Like the players on the list, it’s a good bet that Monahan is a good to great player with a long career ahead. But there are a few minor concerns when it comes to Monahan.

For one, he’s essentially all goals with very little assists. At this point, 70% of his points have come from goals. That is the highest goals/points ratio on the list. Looking at the list, the players with a goal/point ratio higher than 60% tend to be less elite than their peers (e.g., Dustin Penner, Patrick Eaves and Chris Higgins). However, James Neal also had a G/P ratio over 60% and he’s an elite talent especially when coupled with an elite playmaker like Malkin or Crosby. Perhaps Monahan develops into a trigger man like Neal.

The other concern is Monahan’s shooting percentage. He scored on about 20% of his shots to start off the season which led to his hot start. That shooting percentage has come down as has his production but it still sits at 17%. Most of the players on the list that turned into top six talent had a shooting percentage right around the typical NHL-wide average of 10%-12%. Marek Svatos and Petr Prucha both had incredibly high shooting percentages their first years. But, today, both are out of the league after only a few years in the NHL.  

Onto the positive side again. Out of the 45 players on the list (not including Monahan), 11 came into the league directly after being drafted. The list consists of Yakupov, Landeskog, Skinner, Hall, Duchene, Tavares, Stamkos, P. Kane, J. Staal, Malkin and Crosby. You could argue with ease that every one of those players is very elite. The only exceptions being perhaps Jordan Staal and Nail Yakupov, who the jury’s still out on. This lends support for the argument that Monahan is ready for the NHL and shouldn’t have been sent back to juniors. Like his peers in this category, he’s got the goods already to do well in the bigs, witnessed by his goal production.  

Scoring 20 goals as a rookie, especially a newly drafted rookie, is certainly something to write home about as hitting the feat seems to be partially predictive of the player’s future in the NHL. 75% of rookies that scored 20 goals or more since the 2005 lockout have gone on to play in a top six role and 89% have become regular NHLers. Like any top prospect, Flames fans are excited about Monahan and his potential. While Monahan’s goal/points ratio and shooting percentage provide a certain caution of his future success, Monahan likely hitting the 20 goal mark is a definite sign of his potential. Based on the players that have hit the 20 goal mark their first season, Monahan is in very good and elite company and, assuming he hits that mark, it’s a good bet that he’ll be a pretty good player for this Flames team for years to come.