Setting expectations for the 2011 & 2012 Flames draft classes

7 years ago

It’s September, and many junior teams have been in camp for a few weeks. In another week or so, National Hockey League teams will begin their prospect camps and the continent will be overrun with hockey once more.

It’ll be great.

But the opening of camps is a good chance to reflect on the performance of the last few seasons of Flames draft picks. Which picks are doing well? Which are doing poorly? And what are reasonable expectations for their performances this coming season?

Let’s begin with the 2011 and 2012 Draft classes, as they have the most seasons for us to judge! (NHLE calculations from the most recent Hockey Abstract revisions.)

TYLER WOTHERSPOON

Second round selection, 57th overall in 2011.

2011-12: 28 points in 67 games (WHL) – 9.3 NHLE
2012-13: 37 points in 61 games (WHL) – 13.4 NHLE
2013-14: 9 points in 48 games (AHL) – 7.2 NHLE; also 4 points in 14 NHL games
2014-15: 24 points in 61 games (AHL) – 15.2 NHLE; also 0 points in 1 NHL game
2015-16: 10 points in 53 games (AHL) – 7.3 NHLE; also 1 point in 11 NHL games

Wotherspoon was a key player in a good junior program, but his production on the pro level has been a bit all over the place. His game has lacked consistency at times, and it’s been unclear what his specific niche in the AHL is. He’s definitely a good enough player to be in the NHL, but if he has designs of being more than a third pairing guy he’ll need to find his offensive consistency (as he had briefly in 2014-15). If he can put together another 20-or-more-point season, perhaps he could convince the Flames he’s second pairing material.

(Or else he could make himself a pretty interesting piece on the trade market.)

JOHNNY GAUDREAU

Fourth round selection, 104th overall in 2011.

2011-12: 44 points in 44 games (Hockey East) – 30.3 NHLE
2012-13: 51 points in 35 games (Hockey East) – 44.2 NHLE
2013-14: 80 points in 40 games (Hockey East) – 60.7 NHLE; also 1 point in 1 NHL game
2014-15: 64 points in 80 games (NHL) – 65.6 NHLE
2015-16: 78 points in 79 games (NHL) – 81.0 NHLE

I’ve honestly never heard of this guy.

Impressive numbers, though, with year-over-year production improvements in each of his seasons since being drafted.

MARK JANKOWSKI

First round selection, 21st overall in 2012.

2012-13: 18 points in 34 games (Hockey East) – 16.1 NHLE
2013-14: 25 points in 39 games (Hockey East) – 19.4 NHLE
2014-15: 27 points in 37 games (Hockey East) – 22.1 NHLE
2015-16: 40 points in 38 games (Hockey East) – 31.9 NHLE

Jankowski also spent a bit of time in the AHL late last season. He’s modestly improved his production every season, playing on a fairly strong college program in Providence. For the curious, a 31.9 NHLE in the AHL would be 56 points over a full season. Given the typical production dip we’ve seen in most players when they go pro – Wotherspoon dropped by five NHLE points, for example – a more reasonable hope for Jankowski might be 40 points as an AHL newb.

JON GILLIES

Third round selection, 75th overall in 2012.

2012-13: .931 save percentage in 35 games (Hockey East)
2013-14: .931 save percentage in 34 games (Hockey East)
2014-15: .930 save percentage in 39 games (Hockey East)
2015-16: .920 save percentage in 7 games (AHL)

Gillies had three strong seasons in college (on a good team). He had pretty solid numbers in the AHL, battling an injury, with a small sample size. If he can put together a similar performance over a full AHL season, I’d think that would be considered a good start to his pro career.

BRETT KULAK

Fourth round selection, 105th overall in 2012.

2012-13: 44 points in 72 games (WHL) – 13.5 NHLE
2013-14: 60 points in 69 games (WHL) – 19.3 NHLE
2014-15: 30 points in 39 games (ECHL); 13 points in 26 games (AHL); also 0 points in 1 NHL game
2015-16: 17 points in 59 games (AHL) – 11.1 NHLE; also 0 points in 8 NHL games

Like Wotherspoon, Kulak experienced a bit of a dip in production in his first year pro. Heck, he played a good chunk of the season in the ECHL. But he rebounded nicely (in terms of consistency) last season and got some NHL games in out of camp. If he’s not in the NHL this season, the hope will probably be for some continued consistency and a bit of an increase in his offensive production. A 30-point season would probably be reasonable.

RYAN CULKIN

Fifth round selection, 124th overall in 2012.

2012-13: 45 points in 67 games (QMJHL) – 14.3 NHLE
2013-14: 50 points in 65 games (QMJHL) – 16.4 NHLE
2014-15: 18 points in 37 games (AHL) – 18.7 NHLE
2015-16: 8 points in 33 games (ECHL); 2 points in 27 games (AHL)

Culkin bucked the trend, actually increasing his adjusted offensive production in his injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign. His was injured in camp last year and never really got out of the starting blocks, eventually ending up in the ECHL. If he’s healthy again, the expectation is probably a 20-point season in the AHL (if not more) if he wants to stay on the NHL radar.