When will the Flames draft?

The Calgary Flames are still alive in the 2020 NHL Draft lottery. Since Team E, a placeholder team, won the lottery last week, it’s still up in the air as to who will draft first overall. In fact, the Flames’ draft placement is very much yet to be determined.

We crunched the numbers of the various possible scenarios.

The Flames are currently considered a moderate favourite by The Athletic’s odds guru to beat Winnipeg. The odds of an upset and winning the 1-in-8 lottery are 5.2%.

If it happened, the Flames would likely select winger Alexis Lafreniere (who played with Flames prospect Dmitry Zavgorodniy with Rimouski for the past two seasons).

If the Flames lose to Winnipeg, there’s still a 7-in-8 shot at another qualifying round loser winning the Lafreniere lottery. Should that happen, the Flames pick would fall somewhere between 9th and 13th overall.

For the Flames to fall all the way to 13th, they (and Montreal, Chicago, Arizona and Minnesota) would need to lose and another team would need to win the lottery. If any of those four teams win their play-ins, the Flames would nudge up towards 9th overall.

If there is no second lottery because the play-in round isn’t complete, they’ll revert to regular season point percentage – first for the 15 teams not in playoff spots at the pause, then the 16 playoff teams. As the weakest playoff team by that measure, the Flames would draft 16th overall.

If a second lottery occurs but the playoffs don’t get finished, our understanding is the 16 qualifying playoff teams will be ranked by points percentage. Even with some qualifying round upsets, the furthest the Flames would slide in this scenario is 20th overall. (11 playoff qualifiers are guaranteed to have better points percentages.)

If the playoffs are completed, the draft order will be determined by points percentage (lowest goes first) in order of (a) teams that didn’t win their division, (b) division winners, (c) the conference finals losers (28th and 29th), (d) the Stanley Cup finalist (30th) and the Stanley Cup winner (31st).

If the Flames lose in the first two rounds, they’ll likely be the weakest qualifying playoff team by points percentage – we won’t spoil the Athletic’s projections, but Calgary is the weakest-finishing play-in round favourite. Thus, they’re probable to draft 16th overall. Only Montreal, Chicago, Arizona or Minnesota making the playoffs and losing in the first two rounds would nudge them back in the draft order.

It could happen. (As in, there’s a mathematical possibility of it conceivably occurring.)

If the Flames lose to Winnipeg, they probably draft around 12th or 13th.

If the Flames beat Winnipeg, they probably draft around 16th.