How do the Calgary Flames put together a really good run? When I asked that question to head coach Glen Gulutzan earlier this week, his response was rather glib: “We need to win some games in a row.” While completely accurate, I’m interested in how that actually starts to happen, because there are plenty of indicators the Flames might be poised for a breakthrough.

With the high expectations this team had heading into the season, fighting in and around the bottom of the playoff picture in late December is disappointing. I’m not suggesting Calgary needs to bust off a 10-game heater for a second straight year, but a good stretch with significantly more wins than losses would go a long way right now.

The Flames haven’t been bad this season, but the team’s longest win streak is three games (twice), and their longest point streak is at four from earlier this month. To create some separation from the rest of the pack, they’re going to need to do a little better than that. Fortunately, a couple positive trends make a good stretch a realistic possibility if they continue.

The strides Calgary has made in this regard are substantial since the end of Bob Hartley’s tenure as head coach. The Flames finished 2015-16 with a 48.0% possession rate at five-on-five, the highest number in Hartley’s four seasons as head coach. In Gulutzan’s first year the following season, that jumped to 50.5%. Through the first three months of this campaign, the team has taken another significant step forward.

Mike Keenan was head coach the last time Calgary was a top five team by this metric, going all the way back to 2008-09. Sure, they went out in round one that year, but mainly because they ran up against another elite possession team in Chicago.

It was a long time ago, but that really was a high end team at even strength and likely would have ran away with the Northwest Division had they gotten better goaltending. I know, it’s blasphemy to question anything to do with goaltending during Miikka Kiprusoff’s reign here, but it’s also the truth. With an 0.899 team save percentage that year, the Flames ranked 25th in the NHL and were brought back to the middle of the pack as a result.

Hindsight counts for nothing, but that history lesson helps illustrate how long it has been since Calgary controlled play like they have this season. Your eye can see it, too; this team cycles well, they force lots of offensive zone faceoffs, and they put tons of rubber towards the net. As such, the Flames have won the possession battle on 25 of 35 occasions so far this year.

Of course, possession is only part of the battle on the road to sustained success…

Another important factor is what a team does once they’re on the offensive. It’s great to spend lots of time inside the opposing blueline, but if that time isn’t dangerous, it counts for a whole lot less. Luckily for Calgary, they’ve been able to convert a top five even strength shot rate into a similarly dangerous clip creating scoring chances.

Per NaturalStatTrick, the Flames rank sixth overall in raw high danger scoring chances. Even more impressive is Calgary’s for and against ratio of 55.7% has them third in the league, as they’re a middle of the pack team in terms of chances against.

This team’s correlation between positive five-on-five zone time and scoring chances is certainly promising. Also encouraging is the fact the Flames aren’t relying on unsustainable percentages; in fact, Calgary is only shooting at 6.97% five-on-five, which puts them just 24th overall.

While there’s no guarantee that number progresses to the mean, it’s likely to improve at least a little. In turn, there’s a decent chance the Flames start to see more pucks go in, especially if they keep generating chances at the same rate they have thus far.

Here’s where things are a little less rosy, as Calgary just cannot seem to break through on the powerplay. Since Kris Versteeg went down with a hip injury in late November, the Flames have scored just four powerplay goals in 14 games, which is hard to wrap your head around.

Ideally, losing one player shouldn’t be as detrimental as Versteeg’s loss has been to Calgary, but the numbers above are fairly staggering. Regardless of what their powerplay units look like, the Flames do not look consistently dangerous when up a man and that is their least promising trend currently.

With how close teams are in this day and age, Calgary should expect to be in a large number of close games at five-on-five. In situations like that, the ability to tally even one powerplay goal can be the difference between winning and losing. The Flames are an effective even strength team, but until they figure their powerplay out, it serves as an obstruction on their road up the standings.

On the bright side, it looks like Calgary’s penalty kill has normalized. The Flames were absolutely dreadful in this regard through the first six weeks of the season, but something seemed to click during a six-game November road trip.

Calgary was one of the league’s better penalty killing teams in the second half of last season, so there’s no reason why they should have been as porous as they were early on. Regardless, it seems like the penalty kill has turned a corner, which also bodes well in this conversation.

There is a lot to like about the way the Flames are playing right now. Calgary’s five-on-five game is better than it has been in years, they’re getting solid goaltending, depth scoring, and have gotten their shorthanded game back on track. That leaves the powerplay as the team’s largest stumbling block, and it’s something they need to fix.

For the Flames to separate themselves from the pack, they’re going to need to get on a run. The way they’re playing suggests that might be in the cards, but until it happens, it’s nothing but talk. However, if Calgary keeps on trending the way they are in most areas, and if they fix their powerplay, the smart money says a nice little hot streak isn’t too far away.