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Lots of charts today, it’s because Seattle is one of the more interesting teams in the league. The skaters follow through with the process it takes to win quite well, but they haven’t been able to buy a proper save since their inception last year. Already this season they’ve let in 6 goals above expected – one would expect regression but then you see whose in net and that expectation starts to fade.
Calgary’s top forward in xGF% is Backlund, but following him is Huberdeau who has new linemates in Kadri and Mangiapane. Lindholm is flanked by Toffoli and Lucic – we’re going to keep our bet recommendations to the supposed new first line.
Seattle actually employs better defensive metrics than the Flames right now so shot on goal props and total goals bets make me eery.
Primary Bet – Mangiapane to get 1+ assist (+200)
The most success has come from the 1+ assist bets this season, Mangiapane has the best payout odds from the top line. Huberdeau is now going to be feeding him the puck which is only an inherent positive. Some may think why not pick anytime goal – it’s because with handing out 2 assists on each goal this is still more likely. Never guaranteed – just more likely.
At +200 a $5 bet pays out $15.00
Secondary Bet – Jonathan Huberdeau and Jaden Schwartz to score 1+ points each (+162)
Schwartz and Huberdeau are both top 3 on their teams in xGF% for forwards. The power play line for Schwartz and Kadri pays out +650, but we’re going with the more likely any situation points. Seattle’s power play offence is bad and Calgary’s PK is one of the better ones – not worth going there.
At +162 a $5 bet pays out $13.12
Tertiary Bet – Nazem Kadri to get 1+ goals and 1+ assists (+333)
Certainly the biggest longshot of the day, but having Kadri between two fantastic top shelf wingers in Huberdeau and Mangiapane help. He’s a top option if they get power plays and is always relentless in his puck pursuit. Mangiapane and Kadri’s fearless attack should create turnovers that will help Huberdeau find time and space to find passing seams. I will admit it’s more of a longshot than some other things, but with the Kraken being strong i’m banking the Flames most skilled players will take advantage of Joey Daccord when they get their limited scoring chances.
At +333 a $5 bet pays out $21.66
As usual, bet safe and enjoy the game!