<p>When you think about it, Matvei Gridin has gone through a ton of change in his life on and off the ice over the past few years.</p>
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<p>Since 2020, Gridin has played in three different levels of Russian junior hockey – for two teams in two different cities (St. Petersburg and Omsk) – and then moved to an entirely different continent, where he spent two seasons in a brand-new league and committed to college. Then, after becoming a first-round NHL draft choice, he closed the door on college and went to Canadian major junior instead after signing his first NHL contract.</p>
<p>Now learning the Canadian junior game with the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League&#8217;s Shawinigan Cataractes, Gridin will be looking to become a top player in a brand-new league after becoming one of the top players in the United States Hockey League over the prior two seasons.</p>
<p>So here&#8217;s what we think we know about Gridin based on the available information: he&#8217;s adaptable, and he keeps figuring out ways to put up good offensive numbers. In Russia&#8217;s under-18 league in 2020-21 (in his 14-year-old season) he had 33 points in 22 games. As a 15-year-old in under-17 hockey in 2021-22, he had 50 points in 34 games. He dipped a bit in 2022-23 as he learned the USHL as a 16-year-old, settling for 21 points in 40 games. But he bounced back, posting 83 points in 60 games in his draft year as a 17-year-old.</p>
<p>Is he a two-way marvel? Nope. He&#8217;ll never be confused for Mikael Backlund or Blake Coleman, in terms of 200-foot acumen or checking ability. But when he has the puck in the offensive zone – or he&#8217;s anywhere near it – he&#8217;s adept at using his speed, skill and instincts to either score goals or draw defenders to him to free up his teammates.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">💫Check out this end-to end snipe from Matvei Gridin in the Q<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Flames?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Flames</a> <a href="https://t.co/GyhtXbIrYK">pic.twitter.com/GyhtXbIrYK</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Flames Prospects (@BlastyProspects) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlastyProspects/status/1843306612867698700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2024</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>In terms of expectations, our thought is this: Gridin is with Shawinigan to round out his game and prepare to be a pro. Worse case scenario, Gridin is there for two seasons (this season and 2025-26) and then goes to the AHL as a 20-year-old in 2026-27. If Gridin can continue to hone his offensive skills and round out his play away from the puck a bit, perhaps he can challenge for a spot in the NHL earlier than that.</p>
<p>Perhaps.</p>
<h1>Exceeding expectations</h1>
<p>When it comes to offensive players, we tend to focus on their production and output, which typically involves comparing their NHLe (NHL equivalent scoring amounts). Comparisons between leagues are tricky, but <em>generally</em> the USHL and QMJHL tend to have similar offensive outputs so their NHLe comparison coefficients are similar – players who scored at the same rate in the two leagues tend to have similar NHL scoring, too.</p>
<p>Anyway, Gridin&#8217;s scoring output in the USHL was about 1.4 points per game and he led that league in scoring last season. Expectations are high for him offensively because, well, he set a high standard and his body of work to date suggests that if he&#8217;s effective, he&#8217;s scoring. If he gets anything above 1.4 points per game, it&#8217;ll result in his NHLe <em>increasing</em> from last season&#8217;s torrid pace and that would exceed expectations given his circumstances.</p>
<p>Something that&#8217;ll be harder to suss out in the numbers, though: how well his two-way game is progressing. We&#8217;ll be paying attention to see how many of his points come at five-on-five. If that&#8217;s trending upward – and he&#8217;s relying on the power play less and less – that&#8217;ll be a nice value-add, too.</p>
<h1>Meeting expectations</h1>
<p>Gridin is a damn smart offensive player, but he&#8217;s playing in a new league and a new country, so it&#8217;s natural that there may be growing pains. If his overall offensive output is between a point per game and 1.4 points per game, that seems like it would be right in line with what he should be producing given his circumstances. The Q is a tough league, so if you can produce consistently every game, that&#8217;s pretty impressive.</p>
<p>In this scenario, we wouldn&#8217;t necessarily expect his two-way game to improve as he&#8217;s adapting to the Q&#8217;s nuances, so it wouldn&#8217;t be disappointing if the proportion of points he gets at five-on-five remains fairly stable throughout the season.</p>
<h1>Below expectations</h1>
<p>If Gridin&#8217;s point production dips below the point-per-game level on the season, that would be a bit of a step back for him, even in the context of all the changes he&#8217;s making this season. He&#8217;s shown the ability to adapt fairly rapidly in recent years, so his adaptation taking a bit longer than in the past would probably be below expectations given the circumstances.</p>
<p><em><strong>What are your hopes for Matvei Gridin in his first season in the QMJHL? Do you think he can potentially challenge for an NHL job in 2025-26? Let us know in the comments!<br />
</strong></em></p>


When you think about it, Matvei Gridin has gone through a ton of change in his life on and off the ice over the past few years.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2109" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="328"></div>
Since 2020, Gridin has played in three different levels of Russian junior hockey – for two teams in two different cities (St. Petersburg and Omsk) – and then moved to an entirely different continent, where he spent two seasons in a brand-new league and committed to college. Then, after becoming a first-round NHL draft choice, he closed the door on college and went to Canadian major junior instead after signing his first NHL contract.

Now learning the Canadian junior game with the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League's Shawinigan Cataractes, Gridin will be looking to become a top player in a brand-new league after becoming one of the top players in the United States Hockey League over the prior two seasons.

So here's what we think we know about Gridin based on the available information: he's adaptable, and he keeps figuring out ways to put up good offensive numbers. In Russia's under-18 league in 2020-21 (in his 14-year-old season) he had 33 points in 22 games. As a 15-year-old in under-17 hockey in 2021-22, he had 50 points in 34 games. He dipped a bit in 2022-23 as he learned the USHL as a 16-year-old, settling for 21 points in 40 games. But he bounced back, posting 83 points in 60 games in his draft year as a 17-year-old.

Is he a two-way marvel? Nope. He'll never be confused for Mikael Backlund or Blake Coleman, in terms of 200-foot acumen or checking ability. But when he has the puck in the offensive zone – or he's anywhere near it – he's adept at using his speed, skill and instincts to either score goals or draw defenders to him to free up his teammates.

https://twitter.com/BlastyProspects/status/1843306612867698700

In terms of expectations, our thought is this: Gridin is with Shawinigan to round out his game and prepare to be a pro. Worse case scenario, Gridin is there for two seasons (this season and 2025-26) and then goes to the AHL as a 20-year-old in 2026-27. If Gridin can continue to hone his offensive skills and round out his play away from the puck a bit, perhaps he can challenge for a spot in the NHL earlier than that.

Perhaps.
<h1>Exceeding expectations</h1>
When it comes to offensive players, we tend to focus on their production and output, which typically involves comparing their NHLe (NHL equivalent scoring amounts). Comparisons between leagues are tricky, but <em>generally</em> the USHL and QMJHL tend to have similar offensive outputs so their NHLe comparison coefficients are similar – players who scored at the same rate in the two leagues tend to have similar NHL scoring, too.

Anyway, Gridin's scoring output in the USHL was about 1.4 points per game and he led that league in scoring last season. Expectations are high for him offensively because, well, he set a high standard and his body of work to date suggests that if he's effective, he's scoring. If he gets anything above 1.4 points per game, it'll result in his NHLe <em>increasing</em> from last season's torrid pace and that would exceed expectations given his circumstances.

Something that'll be harder to suss out in the numbers, though: how well his two-way game is progressing. We'll be paying attention to see how many of his points come at five-on-five. If that's trending upward – and he's relying on the power play less and less – that'll be a nice value-add, too.
<h1>Meeting expectations</h1>
Gridin is a damn smart offensive player, but he's playing in a new league and a new country, so it's natural that there may be growing pains. If his overall offensive output is between a point per game and 1.4 points per game, that seems like it would be right in line with what he should be producing given his circumstances. The Q is a tough league, so if you can produce consistently every game, that's pretty impressive.

In this scenario, we wouldn't necessarily expect his two-way game to improve as he's adapting to the Q's nuances, so it wouldn't be disappointing if the proportion of points he gets at five-on-five remains fairly stable throughout the season.
<h1>Below expectations</h1>
If Gridin's point production dips below the point-per-game level on the season, that would be a bit of a step back for him, even in the context of all the changes he's making this season. He's shown the ability to adapt fairly rapidly in recent years, so his adaptation taking a bit longer than in the past would probably be below expectations given the circumstances.

<em><strong>What are your hopes for Matvei Gridin in his first season in the QMJHL? Do you think he can potentially challenge for an NHL job in 2025-26? Let us know in the comments!
</strong></em>

Can Flames first-rounder Matvei Gridin continue to adapt and thrive in 2024-25?

Calgary Flames right wing Matt Coronato (27) during the face off against the Ottawa Senators during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome.

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