It’s a quiet week for the hockey world, with the majority of the Calgary Flames’ prospects off due to the holidays or COVID-19 protocol stoppages. Either way, we figured it’s a good time to look at each player’s offensive contributions in the context of their NHLe (NHL equivalent) progression.
Let’s dive in!
For the unfamiliar, NHLe is a method of roughly approximating what a player’s production in one league would translate to at the NHL level. It’s an approximation based on large data samples of players who played in those leagues and made the jump (or didn’t) to NHL success. Take them with a grain of salt, as they’re not meant to be predictions, but mere conversions meant to put a player’s current play in a broader context.

F Jack Beck – Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
OHL
12
17
37.52
2020-21
OHL
2019-20
OHL
56
19
8.99
2018-19
U16 GTHL
33
36
n/a
U16 AAA
73
74
n/a
Beck’s 18 and missed his entire draft year, but he’s made a massive jump in productivity from his Draft-1 year (when he was 16). It’s yet to be seen how he’ll be once he returned from injury, but the start to his season was superb.
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D Jake Boltmann – University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NCAA)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
NCAA
17
8
12.85
2020-21
NCAA
19
0
0.00
USHL
6
0
0.00
2019-20
USHL
17
9
12.16
USHS
25
13
n/a
2018-19
USHL
8
1
2.87
USHS
44
19
n/a
Boltmann had a pretty rough Draft+1 year offensively in 2020-21, but he’s returned to his pre-draft form. He’s a stay-at-home guy ultimately, but he’s been pretty decent as a sophomore for the Irish.

F Lucas Ciona – Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
WHL
26
13
12.38
2020-21
WHL
23
13
14.00
AJHL
2
4
n/a
2019-20
WHL
53
13
6.07
2018-19
WHL
3
0
0.00
AJHL
2
1
n/a
CSSHL
29
27
n/a
Ciona’s producing this season at more or less the rate he was producing in his Draft year. It’d be nice to see a bit of progression, especially given his size and physical maturity compared to the younger WHL skaters he’s playing against.

RW Matt Coronato – Harvard University Crimson (NCAA)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
NCAA
11
12
25.05
2020-21
USHL
51
85
38.27
2019-20
USHL
45
40
20.41
2018-19
USHS
30
32
n/a
BEAST U16
8
8
n/a
Coronato’s production is down a bit, relatively-speaking, from his superb USHL draft year. That said, it’s natural for production to dip slightly when going into a higher level and he’s still producing at a high level. It’ll be interesting to see what the second half of this season and his entire sophomore year look like from an offensive standpoint.
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RW Walker Duehr – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
15
6
15.94
2020-21
AHL
5
0
0.00
NCAA
28
17
20.91
2019-20
NCAA
32
15
16.14
2018-19
NCAA
34
16
16.21
Duehr’s not destined to be a pro hockey star, but he’s really consistent when you look back at his production over this four year period.

LW Lucas Feuk – Vasby IK HK (HockeyEttan)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
HockeyAllsvenskan
10
2
6.51
HockeyEttan
11
8
n/a
2020-21
HockeyAllsvenskan
14
1
2.33
HockeyEttan
18
18
n/a
J20 Nationell
8
10
19.78
2019-20
HockeyAllsvenskan
29
2
2.25
J20 SuperElit
23
27
18.58
2018-19
HockeyAllsvenskan
5
0
0.00
J20 SuperElit
43
43
15.83
J18 Elite
5
8
n/a
Feuk has been a decent Swedish junior player and a wholly unremarkable Swedish pro.

C/RW Ryan Francis – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
QMJHL
18
23
29.76
AHL
4
0
0.00
2020-21
QMJHL
36
50
36.39
2019-20
QMJHL
61
72
27.49
2018-19
QMJHL
64
32
11.64
Francis has shown really steady progression as a junior player. He’s rapidly catching up offensively this season after it was delayed a bit by a brief AHL stint.

RW/C Glenn Gawdin – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
21
24
45.55
2020-21
AHL
22
13
23.55
SL
1
0
n/a
2019-20
AHL
53
47
35.34
2018-19
AHL
64
38
23.66
Gawdin’s one of the older prospects in the system, and he’s destined to become a Group 6 free agent and leave the organization this summer. But he’s been a really consistently strong AHLer, with only a minor blip in the pandemic season where he bounced around the system a bit.

LW Emil Heineman – Leksands IF (SHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
SHL
29
12
20.22
2020-21
SHL
43
13
14.78
J20 Nationell
1
0
0.00
2019-20
SHL
11
2
8.89
J20 SuperElit
29
41
22.37
2018-19
J20 SuperElit
27
5
2.93
J18
6
6
n/a
He’s a role player in the SHL right now, but Heineman has shown really nice progression from his rookie SHL season.
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C Cole Huckins – Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
QMJHL
24
22
21.35
2020-21
QMJHL
33
32
22.58
2019-20
QMJHL
64
38
13.83
2018-19
MPHL
18
27
n/a
It would’ve been nice to see Huckins take a bigger offensive step in his Draft+1 year, but he’s one of the more consistent players in the Flames system right now.

D Cole Jordan – Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
WHL
7
2
7.08
2020-21
WHL
23
10
10.77
2019-20
WHL
38
7
4.56
2018-19
MMHL
48
44
n/a
MJHL
2
0
n/a
Scouts love Jordan because of his smarts and skating, but his offensive output has yet to really explode. Here’s hoping the second half of his WHL season sees him stay healthy and live up to the potential that many believe that he has.

LW/C Rory Kerins – Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
OHL
26
44
44.82
2020-21
AHL
4
0
0.00
2019-20
OHL
64
59
24.42
2018-19
OHL
57
23
10.69
It’s hard not to be impressed with Kerins’ offensive step forward in his Draft+2 season after playing just four games in his Draft+1 year.

D Johannes Kinnvall – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
2020-21
SHL
32
22
33.60
2019-20
SHL
51
40
38.33
2018-19
SHL
52
22
20.68
Kinnvall is nearing a return from a gnarly pre-season injury. Hopefully he can produce anywhere close to what his last few seasons suggests he has in him.

LW Justin Kirkland – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
22
8
14.49
2020-21
AHL
16
7
17.44
2019-20
AHL
53
28
21.05
2018-19
AHL
75
30
15.94
Kirkland is reliable depth in the AHL. But given his age and his (lack of) offensive progression, he’s probably topped out. He’s set to become a Group 6 free agent this summer.
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RW Demetrios Koumontzis – Arizona State University Sun Devils (NCAA)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
NCAA
20
9
12.29
2020-21
NCAA
22
10
12.41
2019-20
NCAA
25
8
8.74
2018-19
NCAA
35
20
15.60
Koumontzis hasn’t been a huge needle-mover offensively in college, with his NHLe peaking in his freshman year.

D Yan Kuznetsov – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
QMJHL
4
3
19.86
AHL
12
0
0.00
2020-21
AHL
6
0
0.00
NCAA
16
6
12.08
2019-20
NCAA
34
11
10.43
2018-19
USHL
34
4
2.70
It’s probably not fair to draw any conclusions from four QMJHL games, but hopefully they can continue some nice offensive progression for Kuznetsov since his Draft-1 season.

D Connor Mackey – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
23
14
24.26
2020-21
AHL
27
16
23.62
2019-20
NCAA
36
24
22.96
2018-19
NCAA
42
25
20.50
Mackey has been, production-wise, just as good in the AHL as he was in college. It’s actually pretty remarkable how consistent he’s been given he’s jumped right into pro hockey during a pandemic.

C Mitchell Mattson – Michigan State University Spartans (NCAA)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
NCAA
10
2
5.46
2020-21
NCAA
21
4
5.20
2019-20
NCAA
22
1
1.24
2018-19
NCAA
14
0
0.00
Seven points over four seasons of college hockey.

C Ilya Nikolaev – Tri-City Storm (USHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
USHL
21
19
20.77
2020-21
VHL
37
13
n/a
MHL
21
18
n/a
2019-20
MHL
53
32
n/a
NMHL
2
1
n/a
2018-19
MHL
41
25
n/a
NMHL
3
2
n/a
It’s hard to put your finger on Nikolaev because he’s played in one league over the past four years that has produced enough NHL players to have an actual NHLe. But he’s been pretty good for Tri-City.

C Josh Nodler – Michigan State University Spartans (NCAA)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
NCAA
18
11
16.69
2020-21
NCAA
27
11
11.12
2019-20
NCAA
36
8
6.07
2018-19
USHL
54
42
17.86
Nodler has made some nice progress in college, though his offensive production is still somewhat modest relative to other college players.
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LW Jakob Pelletier – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
23
27
46.78
2020-21
QMJHL
28
43
35.76
2019-20
QMJHL
57
82
33.50
2018-19
QMJHL
65
89
31.89
We’ve said this a lot, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Pelletier. Usually you see a production dip when a player, even a really good one, jumps from junior to the pros. But Pelletier has gotten significantly better.

LW Emilio Pettersen – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
20
6
11.96
2020-21
AHL
29
14
19.24
2019-20
NCAA
36
35
33.48
2018-19
NCAA
40
30
25.83
Pettersen had the “going pro dip” last season, and his numbers have eroded a bit more this season.

RW Matthew Phillips – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
20
21
41.84
2020-21
AHL
30
21
27.90
2019-20
AHL
38
33
34.61
2018-19
AHL
65
38
23.30
Phillips is a very good AHL player. If the worst thing you can say about him is “Well, his production dipped during the pandemic…” you know he’s been productive.

C Luke Philp – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
23
14
24.26
2020-21
AHL
30
17
22.58
2019-20
AHL
52
31
23.76
2018-19
USports
24
45
n/a
Philp is basically the forward version of Connor Mackey, in that his production is consistent over the past few seasons.

D Jérémie Poirier – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
QMJHL
30
32
24.84
2020-21
QMJHL
33
37
26.11
2019-20
QMJHL
64
53
19.29
2018-19
QMJHL
61
21
8.02
Poirier has remained a consistently productive offensive defender over the past few seasons, though one would hope for a bit more progression since being drafted.
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D Colton Poolman – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
20
4
7.97
2020-21
AHL
21
6
11.39
2019-20
NCAA
31
17
19.74
2018-19
NCAA
35
17
17.48
Poolman has developed into a wholly unremarkable (from an offensive standpoint) defender.

RW Martin Pospisil – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
15
10
26.57
2020-21
AHL
14
11
31.31
Slovakia
22
17
n/a
2019-20
AHL
26
10
15.33
2018-19
USHL
44
63
32.87
If only he could stay healthy. After his initial “going pro dip,” Pospisil has shown some steady offensive progression.

C Adam Ruzicka – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
13
16
49.05
2020-21
AHL
28
21
29.89
2019-20
AHL
54
27
19.93
2018-19
OHL
65
78
31.78
Ruzicka had his “going pro dip,” followed by three seasons of pretty nice progression. He’s in the NHL now, albeit on a recall.

D Ilya Solovyov – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
15
4
10.63
2020-21
KHL
41
9
14.47
Belarus
1
1
n/a
2019-20
OHL
53
40
19.99
2018-19
Belarus
53
8
n/a
On one hand, Solovyov has taken small steps backward offensively over the past few seasons. On the other hand, he’s moved into progressively tough leagues in that span so that step backward makes a lot of sense.

LW William Strömgren – Rögle BK (J20 Nationell)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
J20 Nationell
29
23
12.55
SHL
1
0
0.00
2020-21
J20 Nationell
14
18
20.35
HockeyAllsvenskan
27
9
10.85
HockeyEttan
11
12
n/a
J18
1
3
n/a
2019-20
J20 SuperElit
10
7
11.08
J18
31
46
n/a
2018-19
J18
2
3
n/a
J16
30
45
n/a
Strömgren has bounced around a lot over the past few seasons and his offensive production seems to have taken a step back this season.

RW Eetu Tuulola – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
18
8
17.71
2020-21
AHL
29
7
9.62
HockeyAllsvenskan
11
4
11.84
Liiga
4
0
0.00
2019-20
AHL
50
23
18.33
2018-19
Liiga
60
36
22.24
Tuulola is offensively about where he was two seasons ago.

D Cameron Whynot – Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
QMJHL
28
15
12.48
2020-21
QMJHL
34
23
15.75
2019-20
QMJHL
57
9
3.68
2018-19
NSMMHL
35
40
n/a
Whynot is about where he was offensively last season.
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C Connor Zary – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
AHL
15
8
21.25
2020-21
AHL
9
7
31.00
WHL
15
24
39.62
2019-20
WHL
57
86
37.36
2018-19
WHL
63
67
26.34
Zary’s catching up offensively after a slow, injury-delayed start to the AHL season. He showed really steady progress over the prior three seasons.

RW Dmitry Zavgorodniy – HC Sochi (KHL)

Season
League
GP
Pts
NHLe
2021-22
KHL
5
2
26.37
AHL
6
0
0.00
2020-21
KHL
6
3
32.96
AHL
29
4
5.50
2019-20
QMJHL
40
67
39.01
2018-19
QMJHL
67
64
22.25
Zavgorodniy has a small KHL sample, so it’s hard to judge yet. He’s a so-so AHLer, but was a great junior player.

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