Who would have thought in October of last year that Martin Pospisil would end up being one of the most important players on the Calgary Flames? If you did think that, then good on you because the majority of Flames observers had essentially written off Pospisil as an AHLer.

But he proved everyone wrong and became an extremely effective player for the Flames.

What are reasonable expectations for Pospisil as he heads into his second season in the NHL? Let’s take a look at three different outcomes.

This is asking a lot from a guy who came out of nowhere last season. But don’t sleep on Pospisil’s ability to play down the middle of the ice and produce points at a higher rate than he did last season.

Pospisil played centre for Slovakia at the World Championships and Olympic qualifying tournaments in the summer of 2024, and he did not look out of place. He put up seven points in seven games at the Worlds. Pospisil followed that up with another point per game performance in the Olympic qualifier.

One thing Pospisil has going for him when it comes to playing centre is his speed. He is one of, if not the best skating forward on the Flames which will help him become a 200-foot player.

Getting to 40 points in the NHL would be an incredible accomplishment for Pospisil. He hasn’t hit the 40-point mark since his last year in the USHL with the Sioux City Musketeers. Pospisil produced at a 31-point pace over 82 games last season.

The biggest reason to be optimistic that Pospisil can hit 40 points this season is because of the way he finished last year. In his final 20 games, Pospisil put up 9 points, which is good for a 37 point pace over 82 games.

Between his impressive end to the 2023-24 campaign and his performance at international events, it’s not unrealistic to think that Pospisil can exceed expectations in the 2024-25 season.

Flames fans should be very happy if Pospisil can replicate what he was able to do last season.

As a fourth-round pick and someone who has never produced offence at an elite rate, it’s tough to ask Pospisil to be a big time point producer in the NHL. It would be a win for the Flames if he can produce at the rate he did last season.

The most important aspect to Pospisil’s game that he can’t lose is his physicality and ability to get under the skin of his opponents. That needs to continue to happen if Pospisil is going to be an effective NHL player.

Pospisil was fifth in the NHL among forwards in hits/60 at 5-on-5 with 17.31 and seventh in total hits at 5-on-5 with 219. He did that in only 63 games. The six players above him in hits played anywhere between 77-82 games.

If he can keep up that level of physicality, with a little less dirty hits, then he is going to continue to be an important member of the Calgary Flames in the short and long term.

It would certainly be disappointing if Pospisil took a major step backward in his development after such an incredible rookie campaign. Producing at a 25-point rate would be below expectations, especially if he has a role in the top 9 forward group. And knowing how Pospisil played last year, it’s hard to see him not being a physical presence. It’s in his DNA to play the game with physicality and an element of being a rat.

The only reason or excuse you could come up as to why Pospisil won’t live up to expectations next season is that he hasn’t shown he can keep up this level of play for more than one season. And that criticism is more about inexperience and injury issues, not the skill or talent level of the player.

Pospisil’s 2024-25 season is going to come down to opportunity. If he is a fixture in the Flames top nine, then it’s realistic that Pospisil could exceed expectations. He’s shown in the NHL and international hockey that he can be a solid offensive player.

If Pospisil ends up playing most of the season on the 4th line, then obviously his production is going to slip.

My guess is that Pospisil will have a great sophomore season as he sticks in the top nine either at center or on the wing. He is going to exceed 40 points and become one of if not the most hated player in the NHL.