Rookie training camps are opening this weekend across the National Hockey League, but the eyes of the hockey world are fixated on the roughly two dozen unsigned restricted free agents league-wide. The signing of Clayton Keller, set to become an RFA after the 2019-20 season, by the Arizona Coyotes may have raised a few eyebrows.

But there are a few key differences between Flames RFA Matthew Tkachuk and Keller that make his eight year, $7.15 million AAV deal not an ideal comparison.

So far in his two seasons in the NHL, Keller has 37 goals and 114 points over 167 games. On a per-game basis, he has 0.222 goals and 0.683 points per game. He compares fairly favourably to Tkachuk’s first two seasons. The Flames winger had 37 goals and 97 points over 144 games, or roughly 0.257 goals and 0.674 points per game.

But the comparison weakens a bit when looking at their usage and performance.

Just looking at their first two seasons for an apples to apples comparison, Tkachuk was buried in the defensive zone yet moved the needle possession-wise considerably more than Keller. When you factor in Tkachuk’s role as a shut-down player and an agitator, the comparison falls apart even further.

Focusing only on their two seasons, Tkachuk is a similar player production-wise but his game seems to have more dimensions than Keller’s.

I’ll admit it: I was a bit confused why Keller signed so early. And the reason is Tkachuk’s third season. Simple put: he killed it in 2018-19. Tkachuk went from being a good two-way player with some upside into being one of the league’s better players, by virtue of a 34 goal, 77 point campaign.

Tkachuk was given a bit more offensive lee-way in terms of more offensive zone starts (58.8%), but he maintained his strong possession play (57.0% CF, 56.3% SCF) and drew a ton of penalties. Keller’s offensive play is promising and probably leads Arizona’s scouting staff to say “Hey, imagine how good he can be when he matures.” Well, Tkachuk hasn’t fully matured yet and he’s emerged as one of the better producing role players in the NHL.

Keller signed off a “down” season where he didn’t take a step forward offensively. Tkachuk’s camp seemed content to gamble on him taking a step offensively, and he did big-time.

If nothing else, Keller’s deal sets an absolute floor for what Tkachuk should get on a long term deal. It always seemed apparent that it would cost significantly north of $7 million to lock Tkachuk down long-term, but now that’s been cemented.

Now, the big question is how far north of $7 million a shorter term deal for Tkachuk may be.