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Flames have the 13th-best chance at first overall pick (well, sort of…)

Photo credit: Jerome Miron/USA Today Sports

By Ryan Pike

May 19, 2021, 19:05 EDTUpdated: May 19, 2021, 19:00 EDT

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The Calgary Flames have finished their 2020-21 season and will be part of the upcoming 2021 NHL Draft lottery. The league has announced lottery odds and the Flames have the 13th-best chance at first overall.

Well, sort of…

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2021 #NHLDraft Lottery Set for Wednesday, June 2. media.nhl.com/public/news/14…

10:16 PM · May 19, 2021

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There are two things you need to know about the draft lottery:

There are draws for the first and second overall picks, and any lottery team can win them this season. (Starting in 2022, a lottery team can move up at most 10 spots.)
The exception to “everyone gets a chance” is Arizona, who forfeited their pick as punishment for some prospect fitness testing rule violations a couple years ago. If Arizona wins either draw, they’ll simply re-draw that pick.

So with and without Arizona, here’s how the odds shake out.

Seed	Team	Odds w/ ARI	Odds w/o ARI
1	Buffalo	16.6%	17.1%
2	Anaheim	12.1%	12.5%
3	Seattle	10.3%	10.6%
4	New Jersey	10.3%	10.6%
5	Columbus	8.5%	8.8%
6	Detroit	7.6%	7.8%
7	San Jose	6.7%	6.9%
8	Los Angeles	5.8%	6.0%
9	Vancouver	5.4%	5.6%
10	Ottawa	4.5%	4.6%
11	Arizona	3.1%	0.0%
12	Chicago	2.7%	2.8%
13	FLAMES	2.2%	2.3%
14	Philadelphia	1.8%	1.9%
15	Dallas	1.4%	1.4%
16	NY Rangers	1.0%	1.0%

The Flames have never, ever won a lottery. They’ve drafted fourth overall once (in 2014) and otherwise haven’t selected in the top five of the NHL Draft.

The 2021 NHL Draft lottery takes place Wed., June 2, presumably as part of the NHL’s coverage of the Stanley Cup playoffs.