The Calgary Flames will face off against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs. How do the Flames stack up against the Avalanche lineup-wise?

For the following positional breakdowns: GS = Average Game Score, CF = Corsi For, OZS = Offensive Zone Starts
<h2>Forwards</h2>
The Flames
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Johnny Gaudreau 
GS: 1.272 
CF: 54.5% 
OZS: 60.6%</td>
<td>Sean Monahan 
GS: 1.093 
CF: 53.7% 
OZS: 60.8%</td>
<td>Elias Lindholm 
GS: 1.027 
CF: 55.5% 
OZS: 58.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Matthew Tkachuk 
GS: 1.083 
CF: 57.0% 
OZS: 57.8%</td>
<td>Mikael Backlund 
GS: 0.804 
CF: 55.3% 
OZS: 57.8%</td>
<td>Michael Frolik 
GS: 0.717 
CF: 56.3% 
OZS: 55.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sam Bennett 
GS: 0.476 
CF: 53.5% 
OZS: 60.1%</td>
<td>Mark Jankowski 
GS: 0.435 
CF: 51.5% 
OZS: 58.3%</td>
<td>James Neal 
GS: 0.394 
CF: 50.6% 
OZS: 59.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Andrew Mangiapane 
GS: 0.456 
CF: 54.9% 
OZS: 58.3%</td>
<td>Derek Ryan 
GS: 0.548 
CF: 54.6% 
OZS: 47.7%</td>
<td>Garnet Hathaway 
GS: 0.298 
CF: 49.5% 
OZS: 56.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Austin Czarnik 
GS: 0.440 
CF: 54.9% 
OZS: 54.4%</td>
<td>Ex: Dillon Dube 
GS: 0.169 
CF: 46.3% 
OZS: 61.8%</td>
<td>Ex: Alan Quine 
GS: 0.258 
CF: 47.8% 
OZS: 51.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Calgary is fairly top-heavy, but there&#8217;s not a huge drop off between the first and second lines or the third and fourth lines. What makes the Flames a challenging team to play against is their ability to swap around pieces and change how they match up against lines; Austin Czarnik, Andrew Mangiapane and Derek Ryan have played up and down the rotation and been effective spare parts (as well as effective in their own roles). If the team opens at full health, Czarnik is likely a healthy scratch but he could be a really effective ace in the hole in terms of changing up how the Flames look.
In terms of health, Sean Monahan missed two games earlier in March due to an illness and more recently another two games due to also (presumably) an illness. Sam Bennett also missed nine of the last 11 games with an upper body injury. Both have been regular participants in practice and are expected to dress for Game 1.
The Avalanche
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Gabriel Landeskog 
GS: 1.111 
CF: 52.2% 
OZS: 67.6%</td>
<td>Nathan MacKinnon 
GS: 1.350 
CF: 53.0% 
OZS: 68.1%</td>
<td>Alex Kerfoot 
GS: 0.502 
CF: 51.0% 
OZS: 59.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mikko Rantanen 
GS: 1.174 
CF: 53.8% 
OZS: 68.8%</td>
<td>Carl Soderberg 
GS: 0.616 
CF: 49.1% 
OZS: 44.0%</td>
<td>Colin Wilson 
GS: 0.376 
CF: 47.7% 
OZS: 55.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derick Brassard 
GS: 0.101 
CF: 45.2% 
OZS: 51.3%</td>
<td>J.T. Compher 
GS: 0.430 
CF: 46.5% 
OZS: 52.4%</td>
<td>Tyson Jost 
GS: 0.373 
CF: 48.0% 
OZS: 62.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gabriel Bourque 
GS: 0.088 
CF: 42.2% 
OZS: 59.5%</td>
<td>Matt Calvert 
GS: 0.373 
CF: 50.7% 
OZS: 45.0%</td>
<td>Matt Nieto 
GS: 0.385 
CF: 51.5% 
OZS: 47.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Sven Andrighetto 
GS: 0.336 
CF: 49.4% 
OZS: 63.8%</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Colorado&#8217;s top line is legit, but they (a) haven&#8217;t been a complete trio for a month due to injuries to Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen and (b) are very reliant on offensive zone starts to generate their offense. Because that trio is getting so much high ground, it makes it challenging for the other trios to get much – compare how top-heavy the starts are for Colorado for how relatively balanced things are for the Flames. The Avalanche will only go as far as the top trio can carry them.
Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar expects Rantanen to play to open the playoffs. His return bumps Alex Kerfoot from the first line potentially down to his old spot on the fourth line, but Kerfoot&#8217;s strong substitute performance might see him end up a bit higher in the rotation. Bednar also intends to keep his top line together at home but split them up on the road to make matching more challenging, so the above projection is our best guess at how they deploy most of the time. (We&#8217;ve adjusted this to better reflect the expected Game 1 lines.)
EDGE: Flames. Calgary&#8217;s balanced attack could be a big challenge for the Avs, especially if the top two lines cancel each other out and it&#8217;s a contest of bottom six versus bottom six.
<h2>Defense</h2>
The Flames
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Mark Giordano 
GS: 1.173 
CF: 57.3% 
OZS: 48.7%</td>
<td>TJ Brodie 
GS: 0.659 
CF: 55.8% 
OZS: 51.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Noah Hanifin 
GS: 0.526 
CF: 53.0% 
OZS: 54.2%</td>
<td>Travis Hamonic 
GS: 0.602 
CF: 54.3% 
OZS: 55.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oscar Fantenberg 
GS: 0.353 
CF: 56.6% 
OZS: 63.8%</td>
<td>Rasmus Andersson 
GS: 0.367 
CF: 50.8% 
OZS: 57.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Juuso Valimaki 
GS: 0.213 
CF: 49.6% 
OZS: 66.3%</td>
<td>Ex: Michael Stone 
GS: 0.329 
CF: 51.7% 
OZS: 55.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Oliver Kylington 
GS: 0.198 
CF: 48.4% 
OZS: 60.9%</td>
<td>Ex: Dalton Prout 
GS: 0.180 
CF: 50.6% 
OZS: 61.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The Flames are carrying 10 blueliners and all of them have played a fairly regular role at some point in the season. Their approach has been to use a defined top four, though Rasmus Andersson can sub in on the top pairing depending on situational needs.
While Calgary does have some nice depth here, it&#8217;s worth noting that all of their four extra bodies are essentially third pairing substitutes. They&#8217;re all perfectly fine options, but they&#8217;re all arguably downgrades from Andersson and Oscar Fantenberg.
The Avalanche
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Tyson Barrie 
GS: 0.860 
CF: 52.6% 
OZS: 64.3%</td>
<td>Nikita Zadorov 
GS: 0.281 
CF: 49.7% 
OZS: 50.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Samuel Girard 
GS: 0.390 
CF: 48.9% 
OZS: 60.9%</td>
<td>Erik Johnson 
GS: 0.357 
CF: 48.5% 
OZS: 55.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ian Cole 
GS: 0.283 
CF: 50.8% 
OZS: 44.4%</td>
<td>Patrik Nemeth 
GS: 0.164 
CF: 48.0% 
OZS: 25.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Ryan Graves 
GS: 0.315 
CF: 49.8% 
OZS: 61.9%</td>
<td>Ex: Mark Barberio 
GS: -0.102 
CF: 41.0% 
OZS: 55.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Colorado&#8217;s defensive depth mirrors their forward group. Tyson Barrie is legit, but like the top forward line he gets a lot of offensive zone high ground. The remainder of the defensive group barely have their heads above water possession-wise. They have some depth, but they&#8217;re either inexperienced (Graves) or a pretty distinct downgrade from their starting six.
EDGE: Flames. Calgary has a bit more versatility and depth than Colorado seems to.
<h2>Goalies</h2>
The Flames
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Mike Smith 
GS: 0.339 
5v5 SV%: 0.906</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>David Rittich 
GS: 0.670 
5v5 SV%: 0.929</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The Flames will start Mike Smith in Game 1. He&#8217;s been fairly reliable lately, but on a season-long sample size he&#8217;s statistically the worst goaltending option available to either team in this series by a fairly significant margin. It&#8217;ll be interesting to see if his puck-handling gives the Flames an advantage, or if Colorado&#8217;s coaching staff finds a way to counter that aspect of his play.
The Avalanche
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Philipp Grubauer 
GS: 0.850 
5v5 SV%: 0.928</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Semyon Varlamov 
GS: 0.694 
5v5 SV%: 0.919</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
For the second season in a row, Philipp Grubauer begins the playoffs having wrestled starting jobs away from the incumbent. A year ago Braden Holtby got his game back, and his crease, and ended up winning a Stanley Cup. Grubauer was excellent down the stretch for the Avalanche and is good enough to give them a chance to win on most nights, though his sample size (138 regular season games) isn&#8217;t quite as large as Smith&#8217;s (571 games) or Semyon Varlamov&#8217;s (448 games).
EDGE: Avalanche. If you&#8217;re nervous about Smith being the Flames&#8217; go-to guy, the numbers suggest that you have good reason to be.

The Calgary Flames will face off against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs. How do the Flames stack up against the Avalanche lineup-wise?



For the following positional breakdowns: GS = Average Game Score, CF = Corsi For, OZS = Offensive Zone Starts
<h2>Forwards</h2>
The Flames
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Johnny Gaudreau
GS: 1.272
CF: 54.5%
OZS: 60.6%</td>
<td>Sean Monahan
GS: 1.093
CF: 53.7%
OZS: 60.8%</td>
<td>Elias Lindholm
GS: 1.027
CF: 55.5%
OZS: 58.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Matthew Tkachuk
GS: 1.083 
CF: 57.0%
OZS: 57.8%</td>
<td>Mikael Backlund
GS: 0.804
CF: 55.3%
OZS: 57.8%</td>
<td>Michael Frolik
GS: 0.717
CF: 56.3%
OZS: 55.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sam Bennett
GS: 0.476
CF: 53.5%
OZS: 60.1%</td>
<td>Mark Jankowski
GS: 0.435
CF: 51.5%
OZS: 58.3%</td>
<td>James Neal
GS: 0.394
CF: 50.6%
OZS: 59.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Andrew Mangiapane
GS: 0.456
CF: 54.9%
OZS: 58.3%</td>
<td>Derek Ryan
GS: 0.548
CF: 54.6%
OZS: 47.7%</td>
<td>Garnet Hathaway
GS: 0.298
CF: 49.5%
OZS: 56.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Austin Czarnik
GS: 0.440
CF: 54.9%
OZS: 54.4%</td>
<td>Ex: Dillon Dube
GS: 0.169
CF: 46.3%
OZS: 61.8%</td>
<td>Ex: Alan Quine
GS: 0.258
CF: 47.8%
OZS: 51.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Calgary is fairly top-heavy, but there's not a huge drop off between the first and second lines or the third and fourth lines. What makes the Flames a challenging team to play against is their ability to swap around pieces and change how they match up against lines; Austin Czarnik, Andrew Mangiapane and Derek Ryan have played up and down the rotation and been effective spare parts (as well as effective in their own roles). If the team opens at full health, Czarnik is likely a healthy scratch but he could be a really effective ace in the hole in terms of changing up how the Flames look.

In terms of health, Sean Monahan missed two games earlier in March due to an illness and more recently another two games due to also (presumably) an illness. Sam Bennett also missed nine of the last 11 games with an upper body injury. Both have been regular participants in practice and are expected to dress for Game 1.

The Avalanche
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Gabriel Landeskog
GS: 1.111
CF: 52.2%
OZS: 67.6%</td>
<td>Nathan MacKinnon
GS: 1.350
CF: 53.0%
OZS: 68.1%</td>
<td>Alex Kerfoot
GS: 0.502
CF: 51.0%
OZS: 59.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mikko Rantanen
GS: 1.174
CF: 53.8%
OZS: 68.8%</td>
<td>Carl Soderberg
GS: 0.616
CF: 49.1%
OZS: 44.0%</td>
<td>Colin Wilson
GS: 0.376
CF: 47.7%
OZS: 55.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derick Brassard
GS: 0.101
CF: 45.2%
OZS: 51.3%</td>
<td>J.T. Compher
GS: 0.430
CF: 46.5%
OZS: 52.4%</td>
<td>Tyson Jost
GS: 0.373
CF: 48.0%
OZS: 62.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gabriel Bourque
GS: 0.088
CF: 42.2%
OZS: 59.5%</td>
<td>Matt Calvert
GS: 0.373
CF: 50.7%
OZS: 45.0%</td>
<td>Matt Nieto
GS: 0.385
CF: 51.5%
OZS: 47.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Sven Andrighetto
GS: 0.336
CF: 49.4%
OZS: 63.8%</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Colorado's top line is legit, but they (a) haven't been a complete trio for a month due to injuries to Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen and (b) are very reliant on offensive zone starts to generate their offense. Because that trio is getting so much high ground, it makes it challenging for the other trios to get much – compare how top-heavy the starts are for Colorado for how relatively balanced things are for the Flames. The Avalanche will only go as far as the top trio can carry them.

Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar expects Rantanen to play to open the playoffs. His return bumps Alex Kerfoot from the first line potentially down to his old spot on the fourth line, but Kerfoot's strong substitute performance might see him end up a bit higher in the rotation. Bednar also intends to keep his top line together at home but split them up on the road to make matching more challenging, so the above projection is our best guess at how they deploy most of the time. (We've adjusted this to better reflect the expected Game 1 lines.)

EDGE: Flames. Calgary's balanced attack could be a big challenge for the Avs, especially if the top two lines cancel each other out and it's a contest of bottom six versus bottom six.
<h2>Defense</h2>
The Flames
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Mark Giordano
GS: 1.173
CF: 57.3%
OZS: 48.7%</td>
<td>TJ Brodie
GS: 0.659
CF: 55.8%
OZS: 51.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Noah Hanifin
GS: 0.526
CF: 53.0%
OZS: 54.2%</td>
<td>Travis Hamonic
GS: 0.602
CF: 54.3%
OZS: 55.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oscar Fantenberg
GS: 0.353
CF: 56.6%
OZS: 63.8%</td>
<td>Rasmus Andersson
GS: 0.367
CF: 50.8%
OZS: 57.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Juuso Valimaki
GS: 0.213
CF: 49.6%
OZS: 66.3%</td>
<td>Ex: Michael Stone
GS: 0.329
CF: 51.7%
OZS: 55.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Oliver Kylington
GS: 0.198
CF: 48.4%
OZS: 60.9%</td>
<td>Ex: Dalton Prout
GS: 0.180
CF: 50.6%
OZS: 61.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The Flames are carrying 10 blueliners and all of them have played a fairly regular role at some point in the season. Their approach has been to use a defined top four, though Rasmus Andersson can sub in on the top pairing depending on situational needs.

While Calgary does have some nice depth here, it's worth noting that all of their four extra bodies are essentially third pairing substitutes. They're all perfectly fine options, but they're all arguably downgrades from Andersson and Oscar Fantenberg.

The Avalanche
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Tyson Barrie
GS: 0.860
CF: 52.6%
OZS: 64.3%</td>
<td>Nikita Zadorov
GS: 0.281
CF: 49.7%
OZS: 50.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Samuel Girard
GS: 0.390
CF: 48.9%
OZS: 60.9%</td>
<td>Erik Johnson
GS: 0.357
CF: 48.5%
OZS: 55.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ian Cole
GS: 0.283
CF: 50.8%
OZS: 44.4%</td>
<td>Patrik Nemeth
GS: 0.164
CF: 48.0%
OZS: 25.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ex: Ryan Graves
GS: 0.315
CF: 49.8%
OZS: 61.9%</td>
<td>Ex: Mark Barberio
GS: -0.102
CF: 41.0%
OZS: 55.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Colorado's defensive depth mirrors their forward group. Tyson Barrie is legit, but like the top forward line he gets a lot of offensive zone high ground. The remainder of the defensive group barely have their heads above water possession-wise. They have some depth, but they're either inexperienced (Graves) or a pretty distinct downgrade from their starting six.

EDGE: Flames. Calgary has a bit more versatility and depth than Colorado seems to.
<h2>Goalies</h2>
The Flames
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Mike Smith
GS: 0.339
5v5 SV%: 0.906</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>David Rittich
GS: 0.670
5v5 SV%: 0.929</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The Flames will start Mike Smith in Game 1. He's been fairly reliable lately, but on a season-long sample size he's statistically the worst goaltending option available to either team in this series by a fairly significant margin. It'll be interesting to see if his puck-handling gives the Flames an advantage, or if Colorado's coaching staff finds a way to counter that aspect of his play.

The Avalanche
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Philipp Grubauer
GS: 0.850
5v5 SV%: 0.928</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Semyon Varlamov
GS: 0.694
5v5 SV%: 0.919</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
For the second season in a row, Philipp Grubauer begins the playoffs having wrestled starting jobs away from the incumbent. A year ago Braden Holtby got his game back, and his crease, and ended up winning a Stanley Cup. Grubauer was excellent down the stretch for the Avalanche and is good enough to give them a chance to win on most nights, though his sample size (138 regular season games) isn't quite as large as Smith's (571 games) or Semyon Varlamov's (448 games).

EDGE: Avalanche. If you're nervous about Smith being the Flames' go-to guy, the numbers suggest that you have good reason to be.

How do the Flames stack up against the Avalanche?

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