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How slim are the Flames’ playoff chances with 30 games left?
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Photo credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
Ryan Pike
Jan 28, 2026, 15:30 ESTUpdated: Jan 28, 2026, 13:56 EST
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Gang, no matter what anybody tells you, the primary goal of every team when each National Hockey League season begins is to win the Stanley Cup.
Yes, some teams have a more realistic chance at winning each season than others, but nobody enters the season going “Oh boy, I hope our team struggles.” Everyone is hoping for the best, though many of the teams likely know that their hopes could be a bit of a long-shot.
The Calgary Flames entered the 2025-26 season hoping to make the playoffs after a 2024-25 season that saw them miss the final playoff spot on a tiebreaker. (We wouldn’t say that they expected to make the post-season, but they saw several potential areas for improvement that they felt could get them over the line.)
Well, uh, that’s not how it’s played out so far. The Flames got out to their worst start in franchise history. And while they’ve recovered somewhat since then, they have 48 points through 52 games (for a .462 points percentage). With 30 games left to go, they are 14th in the Western Conference and 30th in the NHL’s overall standings.
When you control for games played differences, the Flames are 10 points back of the Los Angeles Kings (.559 points percentage) for the final Western Conference playoff spot. A .559 points percentage translates to 91.7 points over 82 games. To reach that total, the Flames would need to play their final 30 games at a .728 points percentage clip.
Four media outlets publish public points projections, and we’ll use those to frame up how steep the Flames’ path to the playoffs would be:
  • The Athletic has the last West playoff spot at 91.8 points, requiring a .730 finish to reach.
  • Moneypuck has the last West playoff spot at 91.4 points, requiring a .723 finish to reach.
  • Evolving Hockey has the last West playoff spot at 89.8 points, requiring a .696 finish to reach.
  • HockeyViz has the last West playoff spot at 87.3 points, requiring a .655 finish to reach.
If you average out the four models, you get 90.075 points. That would require the Flames to finish at a .701 clip to reach, winning 21 of their remaining 30 games (or getting a boatload of overtime points).
We won’t say it’s impossible. Lots of weird stuff happens in professional sports and we won’t say that weird stuff won’t continue to happen in the future. What we will say is that finishing the last 30 games at a .701 clip is an extremely tall order for any hockey team, let alone one that’s gone .462 over their first 52 games.
It’s not impossible, but finishing in a playoff spot is extremely, extremely unlikely.
A high draft choice is a much more likely outcome.

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