The Calgary Flames will begin a daunting six-game road trip Tuesday evening with a date versus the Washington Capitals, who rank first in points percentage this season and hold a record of 18-4-6 on home ice.

The Flames took care of business in their return to action Sunday night versus the San Jose Sharks, earning a 3-2 victory in what was a fairly modest performance overall.

Despite the 3-1 final, the Flames gave the Capitals a tough test when these teams last met in Calgary on January 28th. Since that matchup, the Capitals are 4-0-3 and have scored 5.28 goals per game, including 15 over the weekend versus the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames found a way to collect two points they absolutely had to have Sunday versus the Sharks, in a game which was a little more competitive than expected. Calgary outshot San Jose 36-29, and held a 3.76 to 2.55 edge in expected goals. Though the numbers do agree Calgary was the better team, it wasn’t the Flames’ sharpest performance by any means, and they will need to elevate their level in this difficult matchup.

Kevin Bahl lined up with Rasmus Andersson at today’s morning skate, and appears likely to make his first appearance since January 25th. Throughout Bahl’s 10-game absence the Flames played to a record of 4-5-1, allowing 3.30 goals against per game and an xGA/60 rating of 3.57.

The Flames’ ugly recent defensive play surely hasn’t come down simply to one player’s absence, but Bahl’s return will likely prove impactful nonetheless. It looks as though Ilya Solovyov will remain in tonight’s lineup, leaving Jake Bean as the odd man out on the back end.

Connor Zary made a solid return to action on Sunday, recording three shots on goal in 16:05 of time-on-ice. He appears set to remain on the second line alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman in this matchup, a line which has been highly effective overall this season.

Over the last 10 games, Calgary’s power play has succeeded on 29.7% of attempts and has been aided by the addition of Morgan Frost on the top unit.

Dan Vladar has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup, and will be looking to earn a second consecutive victory after earning the win in his last start versus the Seattle Kraken. Vladar holds a -4.2 GSAx rating and .888 save percentage in 22 appearances this season.

Considering their incredible 38-11-8 record overall, it’s no surprise that the Capitals have proven the ability to win games in a variety of different ways.

Throughout late December and most of January, the Capitals appeared to be playing a relatively breakeven brand of hockey overall, which was being propped up by incredible play from Logan Thompson in goal. More recently, their goaltending has fallen off (.895 save percentage over the last 10 games), but their offensive level of play has been incredible.

Over the last 10 games, the Capitals hold a 54.6% expected goal share and have generated 3.56 xGF/60. Their deep defensive core continues to do an excellent job of helping to create offence, while also being accountable in the defensive zone. While Alex Ovechkin’s line tends to garner most of the headlines, the team’s second unit led by Pierre-Luc Dubois has done an excellent job in tough matchups versus opposing superstars.

While the Capitals are clearly trying their best to help Ovechkin in his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, they have done an excellent job of not letting his chase affect their overall level of play. Since Ovechkin’s return from injury on December 28th, the Capitals power play holds a 28.8% success rate. They have done an excellent job of making teams pay for attempting to cheat towards Ovechkin’s one-timer, and offering up a number of different looks from other areas of the ice.

Head coach Spencer Carbery has gone back to the same top-six the Capitals offered earlier in the year, moving Aliaksei Protas back up to the top line alongside Ovechkin and Strome, leaving a second unit of Dubois, Tom Wilson, and Connor McMichael.

In 261.7 minutes together, Dubois, Wilson, and McMichael have outscored opponents 21-15, while consistently receiving tough usage versus opposing superstars.

Ovechkin, Strome, and Protas have also formed a tremendous trio, which has outscored opponents 19-5 this season while getting much more favourable usage. Protas has arguably been the most improved player in the NHL this season, with 50 points and 57 games, and the league’s second best plus/minus rating of +32.

Thompson has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup after being named the first star of the game in his last performance versus his hometown side. He holds a .920 save percentage and 2.25 GAA in 32 appearances this season.

The Flames could potentially find better form moving forward with Zary and Bahl back in the lineup, and Frost and Joel Farabee providing more offensive upside on the third line. They should be the more urgent team in this matchup, in what could potentially be somewhat of a sleepy spot for the Capitals.

However, with Vladar starting in goal there doesn’t appear to be much value backing the Flames at +179, as they may likely need to outplay the Capitals as heavy underdogs to earn a winning result given the goaltending disparity. We have seen that they are capable of skating with the Capitals, though, as they likely would have bested the Capitals in the last matchup between these sides if not for a great performance by Thompson.

Until Ovechkin finally scores goal No. 895, backing him to score is always going to be a popular play in the betting markets, and +119 still looks to be a good price in this matchup as the Flames have not defended overly well of late and Vladar has been shaky at best this season.

After last season’s All-Star break/bye week, Ovechkin went on a tear, scoring 22 goals in the final 35 games, which made it realistic to catch Gretzky this season. It seems as though the time off is once again aiding the 39-year-old, as he has poured 23 attempts on goal in the first two games since the break for the 4 Nations-Face Off.

Strome and Protas are excellent playmakers who will continue to look for Ovechkin as much as possible at even strength. The Capitals’ well-balanced power play unit continues to make it difficult to entirely take away Ovechkin’s shot, which was quite apparent in the team’s weekend matchups versus the Penguins and Oilers.