The Calgary Flames will have a significant rest advantage Thursday when they host the Buffalo Sabres, having not played since their 3-1 victory in Winnipeg Saturday evening.

The Flames are 14-6-4 at home this season, and as a result, currently hold a one-point lead over the Vancouver Canucks for the final Wild Card spot.

The Sabres were expected to be playing meaningful hockey down the stretch entering the season, but rank last in the Eastern Conference with a record of 18-24-5. They are 7-7-1 since captain Rasmus Dahlin returned to the lineup ,though, and did the Flames a favour by earning a regulation win in Vancouver in their last matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Sabres entered the year desperate to snap the NHL’s longest playoff drought of 13 seasons, but will likely fail to do so as they enter this matchup 11 points back of the final Wild Card spot. They lost 13 straight games from November 27th to December 21st, which essentially ended any chance of a playoff berth.

While that losing streak came down to far more than simply having one player out of the lineup, eight of those games came with Dahlin out, and they have been far more respectable since he returned on December 20th. They hold a record of 7-8 straight-up since Dahlin’s return and betting the Sabres moneylines in each those matchups would yield a +4.4% ROI.

In those 15 matchups, the Sabres hold a 49.50% expected goal share at even strength, but have received a team save percentage of just .881.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to get the start in goal for the Sabres. He had a brilliant finish to last season and closed out the year with a +9.4 GSAx rating, but has been far more mediocre thus far this season with a -0.1 GSAx and .897 save percentage in 34 games played.

Head coach Lindy Ruff shuffled his offensive units during the team’s loss to the Seattle Kraken on Monday, pairing leading scorer Tage Thompson with J.J. Peterka and Jiri Kulich. The trio scored all three goals versus the Canucks on Tuesday, and combined for six points.

Jason Zucker will remain sidelined due to illness in this matchup, and Ryan McLeod will also remain out with an upper-body injury.

The Flames will be catching the Sabres with a fairly significant rest advantage in this matchup, as Buffalo will be playing its third game in four nights while Calgary has been off since Saturday. The Flames have been excellent in games they enter with more than two full days of rest this season. They’re 8-1-2 in those matchups thus far, and won their last matchup in a comparable spot over the Los Angeles Kings.

Dustin Wolf continued his dominant rookie campaign Saturday, as he stopped 38 of 39 shots versus the Jets to steal a critical two points. He now holds an +11.7 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage in 25 games played this season. The Flames are now 16-9 straight-up in Wolf’s starts, and betting them in each of those matchups would have netted a +21% ROI.

I noted last week how Wolf was still 45-1 to win the Calder Trophy, and believe it is worth touching on again ahead of this matchup. The price has recently shortened to 30-1, but I believe it is still a worthy longshot, particularly if you are a Flames fan hoping to cheer on an exciting push for the postseason.

It seems as though Wolf is now going to garner a true starter’s share of Calgary’s matchups, and if he can carry it to a surprising playoff berth, it could be an enticing angle for voters.

The Flames will keep their top-nine the same as we saw in Winnipeg in this matchup, but after placing Walker Duehr on waivers Tuesday we will finally see a different-looking fourth line. AHL Wranglers captain Clark Bishop has been recalled ahead of this matchup, and will centre Ryan Lomberg and Jakob Pelletier on the fourth line.

While the average scorelines have not necessarily reflected it, the Flames have been playing fairly high-event matchups for a relatively large sample size. Over the last 10 games, they have allowed 28.38 shots against per game, but are still generating more at the other end of the ice with 29.15 shots per game.

The Sabres don’t appear to be playing quite as badly as their record suggests right now, and have been a profitable betting side in the time since Dahlin returned to the lineup. They have a breakeven share of the overall play in that span, and have generated 27.24 shots for per 60 over the last 10 games.

There are some trends working in Calgary’s favour in this matchup, as it has been excellent in matchups coming off of extended rest this season, and in games started by Wolf. Chances are the Flames will have a fairly strong defensive performance in this matchup, but I’m not sold they will hold the Sabres to quite as few shots as oddsmakers are expecting.

In his last 20 starts, Wolf has averaged 27.15 saves per game, and gone over 23.5 saves in 15 of those games. As the Sabres are actually generating close to a league-average amount of shots on goal recently, I believe a total of 23.5 saves for Wolf looks too low, and see value backing the over at the current price of -114.