The Nashville Predators and Calgary Flames will complete their season series Saturday evening at the Scotiabank Saddledome.

The Flames won both of the previous two matchups in regulation by a combined score of 6-3. Just like the last meeting in Calgary, the Predators will be playing leg two of a back-to-back in this matchup, after earning a 3-0 victory over the Vancouver Canucks on Friday.

The Predators closed as -125 favourites when these teams met on November 15th in Calgary, but are less favoured in Saturday’s matchup at -110. In the time since the last matchup in Calgary, the Predators hold a record of 7-10-4, while in the same span the Flames own a record of 9-7-4.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

After outperforming expectations with a record of 47-30-5 last season, the Predators entered the 2024-25 campaign with a lofty preseason betting total of 100.5 points after handing out a trio of hefty contracts in free agency to Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei.

With a record of 12-27-0 (30.8% win percentage) straight-up this season, backing the Predators to win every game would mean a -44.9% ROI, which is the worst ROI of any of the 32 teams.

Based on those thoughts, it certainly will look surprising to some to see that Nashville is currently priced at -110 to win this matchup  which is almost the same number it was the last time these teams met in Calgary. Especially when you consider that in the previous matchup in Calgary the Predators started star netminder Juuse Saros, but in this matchup Saros will likely serve as backup as he played last night in Vancouver.

Saros has played one of the Predators’ five back-to-backs this season, so it is possible that Andrew Brunette will opt to use him in this critical matchup. If Brunette decides to rest Saros, the Predators will be starting Justus Annunen, who holds a -2.4 GSAx and .891 save percentage in 16 games this season.

Part of the reason oddsmakers continue to give the Predators more credit in the betting market than their record suggests they deserve is because they appear to be due for positive regression in a number of areas.

The Predators hold a record of just 2-7 in games decided past regulation in 3-on-3 or shootout. They have played to an expected goal share of 49.43% across all strengths this season, which ranks 19th in the league, and makes them the greatest outlier in terms of actual results compared to expected. They also hold the lowest shooting percentage in the league.

The Predators have been in better form of late, with a record of 5-4-1 in their last 10 games. They have scored 3.00 goals per game in that span, and allowed 3.00 goals against per game. They hold an expected goal share of 53.94% in that span, and have generated 29.37 shots on goal per 60.

The Predators will have a considerably different looking lineup in this game compared to when these teams last met. Defender Justin Barron has been surprisingly effective on the top pairing since being added to the team via trade, and Spencer Stastney played well in his 2024-25 debut last night. Forwards Fedor Svechkov, Vinnie Hinostroza and Ozzy Wiesblatt offer the Predators’ bottom-six a different look compared to when these teams last faced off.

Wiesblatt made a solid NHL debut Friday in Vancouver, and the Calgary-born former first-round pick will presumably be offered the chance to remain in the lineup to play in his hometown in this matchup.

The Flames will look to respond after an ugly third period collapse versus the Utah Hockey Club on Thursday. Utah held a 25-13 edge in scoring chances in that matchup, and it was certainly somewhat fitting that it eventually broke through with some offence in the third on route to a 5-3 victory.

The Flames made some critical errors in the third period, including an ugly change on Utah’s critical go-ahead goal. Those are the exact kind of mistakes the Flames have done a better than average job of avoiding in the critical moments of games this season, which has helped them outperform expectations.

One thing head coach Ryan Huska’s group has done consistently this season is respond to their more disappointing performances with a sharper effort, and if they can minimize mistakes in this game and manage the puck well it should lead to a better result versus a Nashville roster lacking offensive depth.

There are still plenty of positives surrounding the Flames lineup right now. Joel Hanley’s emergence as a suitable top-four option has freed up MacKenzie Weegar to play his strong side, and the two hold excellent results together at even strength. In 97.1 minutes together, Hanley and Weegar hold a 66.7% expected goal share, and an actual goal differential of 7-2.

Jakob Pelletier continues to play well on the third line alongside Yegor Sharangovich and Connor Zary, a trio which owns a plus-3 goal differential this season.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. In 19 appearances this season, Wolf holds a .914 save percentage and +6.6 GSAx rating. While there’s an argument to be made that Dan Vladar has suffered through some of the Flames’ worst defensive performances, his -2.9 GSAx suggests the vast gap in save percentage between he and Wolf comes down to more than that.

The Predators enter this matchup in better form with a record of 5-4-1 over the last 10, and likely were never as bad as their record suggested early on this season. They are skating a revamped defensive core which has helped power the team’s improved results, and their recent underlying numbers suggest they are playing better than average hockey.

While I can understand why the Predators are still holding up more value than you might expect in the betting market right now, they look overvalued in this specific matchup. They are in a tough scheduling spot after playing a late game last night in Vancouver, and will likely start Annunen, who has offered well below average results this season.

The Flames have been one of the best home teams in the league this season, and should be able to cause problems with their pace in this matchup. At -115 or better, I see value backing the Flames to pull out the win in this matchup.