The Calgary Flames will continue their difficult six-game road trip when they take on the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday evening at the Wells Fargo Center.

Considering the strength of competition faced during their current road trip, the Flames earning three points in the first four games is respectable. The actual games have been quite painful, however, as the team has been shut out twice, and recorded just one goal in an overtime loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday.

On paper, the Flyers are the softest opponent the Flames will face during the road trip, but still hold a record of 15-13-1 on home ice this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Let’s hope the main causation towards the Flames’ horrific offensive results during this trip has been the level of competition faced, because it’s certainly been an excruciating stretch to watch for the team’s most devoted followers, at least those that have forced themselves to take it all in.

The Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, and Carolina Hurricanes all rank ninth or higher in goals against per game this season. All four have received better than average goaltending, and do a better than average job at suppressing quality chances from the opposition.

While the Flyers are a better defensive team than is generally credited, they have suffered from a league worst save percentage this season, which will hopefully help Calgary finish scoring chances at a more respectable clip. Since February 1st, the Flames own a shooting percentage of 6.37%, which is the lowest mark in the league.

It’s no surprise to see that head coach Ryan Huska has shuffled his lineup considerably ahead of this match-up after the team’s performance in Carolina. Tuesday’s lineup looks debatable at best.

While Huska knows more than us loyal fans, it’s pretty difficult to see the logic in skating Connor Zary as a fourth-line winger alongside Lomberg and Rooney. Zary has not been playing at his best recently, but there’s still no debating that he is at worst a top-nine player on a team with next to no offensive upside right now, and is a critical part of the team’s future.

It certainly takes some nerve for a coach to insert his captain further down the lineup than expected, but Mikael Backlund is in the midst of treacherous stretch of play, and it’s tough to see how he continues to hold down such a favourable spot on the lineup card.

Huska has opted to elevate Joel Farabee back onto the second line, and is likely banking on the idea that Farabee might have a little extra juice in this match-up as he takes on his former side.

Rasmus Andersson also continues to struggle mightily, though Huska’s realistic options to allocate those minutes elsewhere are limited.

If the Flames are going to pull off a shocking playoff berth, they need more from Backlund and Andersson, as the team is suffering when those two important skaters are on the ice right now.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold an expected goal share of 42.81%, which ranks 29th in the NHL. They have allowed 30.13 shots against per 60 in that span, and generated only 2.80 xGF/60.

Dustin Wolf will start in goal, and provides a significant edge over Flyers starter Samuel Ersson. Wolf holds a +12.2 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage in 36 appearances this season.

Philadelphia continues to look like a better side than its overall record suggests, as head coach John Tortorella’s side continues to bring a high level of intensity and hold a solid share of the overall run of play. Over the last 10 games, the Flyers rank 11th in expected goal share, and have allowed the ninth-fewest shots against in the league.

Flyers goaltenders have combined to post the league’s worst save percentage of .878 this season, and have been awful at stopping low and medium danger chances.

They have started to receive more respectable play in goal of late, however, as Ersson has solidified himself as the team’s No. 1 option over the last two months with a .904 save percentage in 15 appearances. He holds a -6.7 GSAx overall this season and has been confirmed as Tuesday’s starter.

Matvei Michkov looks to have benefited from the time off provided by the 4 Nations Face-Off, as the ultra-talented young winger has put up eight points in four games since the layoff. He’s currently skating on the second line alongside Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett, a unit which has been highly effective.

In 61.2 minutes together, Michkov, Couturier, and Tippett have outscored opponents 9-6 and generated 68.6 shot attempts per 60.

Andrei Kuzmenko should have a decent chance to do some damage versus his former side in this matchup, as he is set to skate on the top power play unit and third line alongside Travis Konecny and Scott Laughton.

It will be quite intriguing to see if the Flames are able to bounce back with a better performance in this match-up, as they get a much more reasonable opportunity to earn two points. It certainly feels like a gamble to assume they will author a notably more convincing performance though, as the lineup doesn’t look overly intimidating, and the Flyers have been better than their record suggests.

While Ersson has been better of late, he still offers a huge disadvantage compared to Wolf. Based on the Flames’ recent play, it seems likely the Flyers could carry more of the overall play, and Calgary will once again likely need to lean on its goaltending edge to win what should be a competitive match-up.

This looks like a good spot to back Michkov to continue pouring shots on target versus a Flames side that is allowing a ton of chances against. Michkov has had 19 shots in four games since the break, and recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of those match-ups. At +102, there looks to be value backing him to record three or more shots in his specific match-up.