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Race to the bottom: where the Flames sit in the NHL draft lottery mix
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Photo credit: Simon Fearn-Imagn Images
Ryan Pike
Mar 26, 2026, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Mar 26, 2026, 00:33 EDT
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The Calgary Flames have 11 games remaining on their 2025-26 regular season schedule.
A year ago, the Flames were in the midst of a pitched playoff battle that ended in disappointment, with the Flames missing out on the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs on a tiebreaker. Now, the Flames are in a different race: a race around the bottom of the NHL standings, where draft lottery positioning and not playoff glory are up for grabs.
Here’s a snapshot of where things sit heading into Thursday’s action.

Why does finishing low matter?

The NHL uses a lottery system to determine the first round draft order. Everything across all seven rounds of the draft defaults to inverse standings order – the 16 non-playoff teams from worst to best, then the 16 playoff teams – but the draft lottery switches the first round order around based on the whims of four selected ping-pong balls.
If you finish 32nd overall, you have the best odds of the first overall draft choice. But it’s no guarantee. Here are the relative stakes for the bottom five finishers, for perspective:
  • At 32nd overall, you have a 25.5% chance of drafting 1st overall and a 74.5% chance of moving down to 2nd or 3rd.
  • At 31st overall, you have a 13.5% chance of moving up to 1st overall, a 14.1% chance of saying at 2nd overall, and a 72.% chance of moving down to 3rd or 4th.
  • At 30th overall, you have a 22.7% chance of moving up to 1st or 2nd overall, a 7.8% chance of staying at 3rd overall, and a 69.5% chance of moving down to 4th or 5th.
  • At 29th overall, you have a 19.3% chance of moving up to 1st or 2nd overall, a 15.4% chance of staying at 4th overall, and a 65.4% chance of moving down to 5th or 6th.
  • At 28th overall, you have a 17.4% chance of moving up to 1st or 2nd overall, a 24.5% chance of staying at 5th overall, and a 58.2% chance of moving down to 6th or 7th.
Yeah, being in the basement guarantees you a top three pick. But there’s a ton of variability involved for everybody in the bottom five.

The bottom five

Vancouver
  • Points: 50
  • Maximum Points: 74
  • Opponents Left: LAK, @CGY, @VGK, @COL, @MIN, UTA, VGK, @LAK, @SJS, @ANA, LAK, @EDM
If the Canucks lose out on nine points, they’ll officially clinch 32nd overall. We have no doubt it’ll happen quite soon. The Canucks have had a dreadful year and they’re going to get the best draft lottery odds as a result of that misery.
NY Rangers
  • Points: 65
  • Maximum Points: 85
  • Opponents Left: CHI, FLA, NJD, MTL, DET, WSH, BUF, @DAL, @FLA, @TBL
On one hand, the Rangers have a seven game homestand coming up. On the other hand, they’ve been one of the worst home teams in the league… so it might not help their case in the standings much.
Chicago
  • Points: 67
  • Maximum Points: 89
  • Opponents Left: @PHI, @NYR, @NJD, WPG, @EDM, @SEA, @SJS, CAR, STL, BUF, SJS
The Blackhawks have a fairly balanced schedule, with two road trips representing the bulk of their remaining work. The western swing is a bit weird, skipping Calgary and Vancouver and sort of hopping around out west.
Calgary
  • Points: 67
  • Maximum Points: 89
  • Opponents Left: ANA, VAN, @COL, @VGK, @ANA, @DAL, @COL, @SEA, UTA, COL, LAK
“Oh no, the Flames are winning too much!” is a cry we’ve heard from parts of the fanbase. To you we say: just look at their remaining schedule. Aside from Vancouver, it’s entirely playoff teams or teams desperately trying to get into a playoff spot. Oh, and a Flames team that has had challenges away from the Saddledome has a six game road trip in the middle of their remaining docket.
St. Louis
  • Points: 69
  • Maximum Points: 93
  • Opponents Left: SJS, TOR, @SJS, @LAK, @ANA, @COL, COL, WPG, @CHI, MIN, PIT, @UTA
The Blues have a a pretty balanced schedule in terms of quality of competition, with one long road trip and then a smattering of home dates.
How do you feel about the Flames’ remaining schedule? Let us know in the comments!

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