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Revising the Flames’ playoff runway
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Photo credit: Sergei Belski/USA Today Sports
Ryan Pike
Mar 19, 2021, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Mar 19, 2021, 09:52 EDT
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The Calgary Flames have 26 games remaining in the 2020-21 season. They’re three points back of the last playoff spot, held by Montreal, with the Canadiens having a game in hand.
The playoff picture isn’t rosy, but it’s not exactly dire quite yet.

The table

(For each team, read across the rows.)
Team
Pct.
Pts
GR
TOR
WPG
EDM
MTL
CGY
VAN
OTT
Leafs
.667
40
26
—
2-2-0
(6 GR)
5-1-1
(2 GR)
3-1-0
(6 GR)
3-1-0
(5 GR)
3-2-0
(4 GR)
3-2-1
(3 GR)
Jets
.633
38
26
2-1-1
(6 GR)
—
2-3-0
(4 GR)
4-2-0
(3 GR)
3-1-1
(4 GR)
3-2-0
(4 GR)
4-1-0
(5 GR)
Oilers
.606
40
23
2-5-0
(2 GR)
2-2-0
(5 GR)
—
1-2-0
(6 GR)
4-2-0
(4 GR)
3-2-0
(5 GR)
7-0-0
(2 GR)
Canadiens
.586
34
27
1-2-1
(6 GR)
2-1-3
(3 GR)
2-1-0
(6 GR)
—
1-3-0
(5 GR)
5-0-2
(2 GR)
2-1-2
(5 GR)
Flames
.517
31
26
1-2-1
(5 GR)
2-2-1
(4 GR)
2-4-0
(4 GR)
3-1-0
(5 GR)
—
4-2-0
(4 GR)
2-2-1
(4 GR)
Canucks
.485
32
23
2-3-0
(4 GR)
2-2-1
(4 GR)
2-3-0
(5 GR)
2-5-0
(2 GR)
2-3-1
(4 GR)
—
5-0-0
(4 GR)
Senators
.348
23
23
3-3-0
(3 GR)
1-3-1
(5 GR)
0-7-0
(2 GR)
3-2-0
(5 GR)
3-2-0
(4 GR)
0-3-2
(4 GR)
—

The road to 65 points

Here are the points percentages North Division teams need to achieve to hit 65 points, the generally accepted playoff cutline:
  • Toronto: .481
  • Winnipeg: .519
  • Edmonton: .543
  • Montreal: .574
  • Calgary: .654
  • Vancouver: .717
  • Ottawa: .913
The unique thing about the Flames schedule is that they still have a bunch of games left against, well, everybody. They’re below .500 in two season series (Toronto & Edmonton), at .500 in two (Winnipeg & Ottawa) and above .500 in two (Montreal & Vancouver).
If you look at the four current playoff teams, they’ve all won at least half of their season series. There’s enough runway left for the Flames to accomplish that – and honestly, none of their season series’ are completely out of reach.
That said, if you look at the sheer math of it all, they need to capture about two-thirds of their remaining points to make the playoffs. The clock is ticking, and the team that’s most vulnerable for them to catch at the moment is Montreal.

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