Pals, the 2026 edition of the NHL’s annual draft lottery is slated for Tuesday, May 5. It’s just a couple weeks away, and it could be a huge day for the Calgary Flames.

Or they could watch another team win the lottery drawings; in the illustrious history of the Flames, they have never won a draft lottery drawing.

The Flames finished 29th overall, fourth-from-last, in the NHL standings and thus they’ve been allocated the fourth-best odds in the upcoming drawings. The way the odds shake out, though, is a 19.3% chance of moving up from fourth overall, a 15.4% chance of staying put, and a 65.4% chance of moving back in the draft order.

Let’s walk through the scenarios.

The Flames have never selected first overall. The fourth overall team hasn’t moved up to first overall since 2003, when Florida’s pick (later used by Pittsburgh) moved up. In the current two-draw format, which began in 2021, the first overall draw has been won by the team originally in 10th (NY Islanders, 2025), 1st (San Jose, 2024), 3rd (Chicago, 2023), 1st (Montreal, 2022) and 1st (Buffalo, 2021).

The Flames have selected second overall twice: in their first-ever draft in 1972 and in their second-ever draft in 1973 (after they traded up). The fourth overall team hasn’t moved up to second overall since the old three-part lottery format in 2020, when Los Angeles moved up. In the current two-draw format, the second overall draw has been won by the team originally in 14th (Utah, 2025, could only move up to fourth), 2nd (Chicago, 2024), 1st (Anaheim, 2023), 5th (New Jersey, 2022) and 3rd (Seattle, 2021).

This would be weird as heck, but it’s technically possible. It hasn’t happened yet in the current two-draw lottery format.

The Flames have never drafted third overall.

The Flames have drafted fourth overall once, in 2014. They did not move in that year’s draft lottery.

This scenario unfolded in 2022, with Philadelphia moving from fourth to fifth overall after one team behind them won a lottery.

The Flames have never drafted fifth overall.

This scenario unfolded last year, with Philadelphia moving from fourth to sixth overall after two teams behind them won both lotteries.

The Flames have drafted sixth overall five times: in 1992 (Cory Stillman), 1997 (Daniel Tkaczuk), 1998 (Rico Fata), 2013 (Sean Monahan) and 2016 (Matthew Tkachuk). Their 2016 pick was the result of Winnipeg, originally sixth overall, winning the lottery to move up to second overall.

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