Flames Cap Crunch

 

 

With Feaster now cemented in the GM chair and Glencross signed, we can turn our attention to Calgary’s predicament heading into next season. With a few more dollars on the books (and yet another NMC), the Flames have a few players left to sign and a vanishingly small amount of cap space to do it with.

Forwards Cap hit
Iginla 7.00
Langkow 4.50
Stajan 3.50
Bourque 3.33
Hagman 3.00
Jokinen 3.00
Kotalik 3.00
Glencross 2.55
Backlund 1.27
Moss 1.30
Kostopolous 0.92
Ivanans 0.60
Jackman 0.55
Tanguay UFA
Morrison UFA
Modin UFA
Total 34.516

The org has 12 forwards under contract currently, although Raitis Ivanans is a good bet to spend the year on LTIR and at least one of Hagman or Kotalik will likely find themselves demoted or shipped to Europe. You can add another 3.60M in cap space if those assumptions prove to be accurate. The actual number will probably be about 30.916M as a result.

Defense  
Bouwmeester 6.68
Giordano 4.02
Regehr 4.02
Sarich 3.60
Staios UFA
Pardy UFA
Babchuk UFA
Carson RFA
Mikkelson RFA
Total 18.32

With Giordano’s raise, the Flames back-end becomes even more top-heavy in 2011-12. The club has 18.32M committed to it’s default top-four and will probably need to sign at least two more veterans (one established enough to slip into the top-four comfortably in case of injury) and hope that one of Erixon or Brodie is good enough to step in and not struggle too much. Brodie’s cap hit is .741M while Erixon has yet to sign his big league deal. Look for his salary to land in Backlund’s ballpark (1.27M including bonuses).

These numbers highlight why Anton Babchuk is likely a goner this summer. Beyond the fact that he probably won’t be worth whatever contract he lands, the Flames probably don’t have the wherewithall to afford it anyways.

Goalies  
Kipper 5.83
Karlsson UFA
Total 5.83
Dawes Buyout 0.141
Total Cap 58.807

Including Ivanans and Kotalik, the Flames have about 58.807M already spoken for in 2011-2012. If the cap swells to $62M, Calgary has all of 3.913M to play with. If you delete Ivanans and Kotalik, the club has 6.793M in the bank, although that also creates two more holes to fill on the roster.

Going with the "Kotalik moves to Europe" scenario, Calgary will have to re-sign or replace Tanguay, Morrison, Pardy, Staios, Babchuk and Karlsson. With room for contigencies during the season. If the club reserves $1M cap space as a buffer, they’ll have about 5.793M to spread across 6 UFA’s, or an average of $966k per player.

Which isn’t a very good number. If he re-ups, Tanguay is a good bet to soak up at least half those dollars ($3M), dropping the available space down to 2.793 for six guys ($559k per player). That’s barely enough scratch to pay guys minimum wage under the current CBA, meaning something’s gotta give here. In addition to Kotalik and Ivanans, one of Stajan, Hagman, Kipper, Sarich or Regehr would also have to go away (with their replacements being much cheaper pieces) in order for the Flames to make it to October with a complete, cap-compliant roster that doesn’t boast five replacement level skaters.

Looking over each of the tables again re-affirms my belief that the best Calgary can hope for in 2011-12 is to run in place. If Tanguay re-signs, the next iteration of the Flames will probably look a lot like the last iteration, albeit slightly more expensive and probably with a rookie or two on the back-end.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    I think Sarich Jokinen Hagman and Kotalik will be the easiest contracts to eat or trade away because they are all entering their last year. Get some picks for them. I would theoretically rather have Jokinen than Stajan but Stajans contract isnt going anywhere I dont think. Morrison Tanguay and Babchuck should all be brought back. Use Morrison as the 4th line centre/2nd PP/2nd PK units.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

    FORWARDS
    Alex Tanguay ($3.750m) / Daymond Langkow ($4.500m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
    Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Matthew Stajan ($3.500m) / David Moss ($1.300m)
    Curtis Glencross ($2.550m) / Mikael Backlund ($1.270m) / Tim Jackman ($0.550m)
    Tom Kostopoulos ($0.916m) / Brendan Morrison ($1.250m) / Lance Bouma ($0.693m)
    / / Stefan Meyer ($0.512m)

    DEFENSEMEN
    Robyn Regehr ($4.020m) / Jay Bouwmeester ($6.680m)
    Mark Giordano ($4.020m) / Anton Babchuk ($2.500m)
    T.J. Brodie ($0.741m) / Matt Pelech ($0.700m)
    / Adam Pardy ($0.700m)

    GOALTENDERS
    Miikka Kiprusoff ($5.833m) / Henrik Karlsson ($1.000m)

    BUYOUTS: Nigel Dawes ($0.141m)

    CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
    (these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
    SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $57,463,332; BONUSES: $730,000
    CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,936,668

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    I would like ownership to own up to the mistakes of the past and get $10.1M in salaries for Hagman, Ivanans, Kotalik, and Stajan off the cap either through AHL, Europe, trade or LTIR.

    You can then double Tanguays salary, give Killer Karlsson a bit of a raise, and bring in some necessary depth at both F and D.

    Maybe Stajan gets his mind and body right and can actually play NHL hockey next season and save Murray et al some money.

  • MC Hockey

    Hi all, Marty C here…I was one of the 5 “My Plan for the Calgary Flames” entries to appear on Fan960 – and the special airs this Friday May 20 3 to 6pm. Here was my plan created before this blog(my shameless plug – please vote for me!):

    Predicted Salary Structure/Reasons for 2011-12 Season. Note: This assumes a 61.4M salary cap (up by 2.0M or 3.367%) spent on 23 players with End-of-CBA provision that all bonuses must count as “paid in full” this year. Thus, the Flames salary cap would be distributed as follows for 2011-12:

    1. Keep The Leaders: Pay for top performances from Iginla (7.0M), Kiprusoff (5.833M), Langkow (4.5M), Regehr (4.020M), Giordano (4.020M), Tanguay (re-sign 6 years with avg of 3.667M). Category Total = $23.207M

    2. Keep Vets with Potential: Bourque (3.333M), Jokinen (3.0M), Glencross (re-sign 2 years 2.6M avg), Babchuk (re-sign 2 years 2.6M avg), Moss (1.3M), Morrison (re-sign 1 yr at .900M), Jackman (.550M). Total = $14.283M
    Keep Reluctantly (untradeable/buyoutable now): Bouwmeester (6.680M), Stajan (4.500M). Total = $11.180M

    3. Sign the Best Younger UFA Veterans: Forward Ville Leino (sign 3 years at avg 2.7M), Forward Patrick Eaves (sign at 2 years at 1.600M avg). Defenseman Grant Clitsome (sign 2 years at avg .800M). Category Total: $5.1M

    4. Keep Younger Flames with Good Potential as Earned: Backlund (1.271M), Pardy (re-sign 2 years at .750M avg), Carson (re-sign 2 years at .550M avg), Karlsson (re-sign 2 years at .550M avg). Category Total = $3.121M
    Assume/Allow These Prospects to Make NHL Team: Bouma (.693M), Brodie (.742M). Category Total: $1.435

    5. Trade What you Can to Get Return on Costly but Decent players (draft choices): Sarich, Kostopoulos = Zero!

    6. Don’t Wait and Make Buyouts Happen for Annoying Underachievers (Owners can afford it): Kotalik (cost 1.0M), Hagman (cost 1.0M), Ivanans (cost 0.2M), add previous buyout of Dawes (cost .142M). Category Total = 2.342M

    FINAL Total Spent: $60.668M versus cap of $62.4M (estimated). Cap Space at outset of season = $1.732M

  • MC Hockey

    Slight correction to last post as categories not outlined all shown properly:

    Predicted Salary Structure/Reasons for 2011-12 Season. Note: This assumes a 61.4M salary cap (up by 2.0M or 3.367%) spent on 23 players with End-of-CBA provision that all bonuses must count as “paid in full” this year. Thus, the Flames salary cap would be distributed as follows for 2011-12:

    1. Keep The Leaders: Pay for top performances from Iginla (7.0M), Kiprusoff (5.833M), Langkow (4.5M), Regehr (4.020M), Giordano (4.020M), Tanguay (re-sign 6 years with avg of 3.667M). Category Total = $23.207M

    2. Keep Vets with Potential: Bourque (3.333M), Jokinen (3.0M), Glencross (re-sign 2 years 2.6M avg), Babchuk (re-sign 2 years 2.6M avg), Moss (1.3M), Morrison (re-sign 1 yr at .900M), Jackman (.550M). Total = $14.283M

    3. Keep Reluctantly (untradeable/buyoutable now): Bouwmeester (6.680M), Stajan (4.500M). Total = $11.180M

    4. Sign the Best Younger UFA Veterans: Forward Ville Leino (sign 3 years at avg 2.7M), Forward Patrick Eaves (sign at 2 years at 1.600M avg). Defenseman Grant Clitsome (sign 2 years at avg .800M). Category Total: $5.1M

    5. Keep Younger Flames with Good Potential as Earned: Backlund (1.271M), Pardy (re-sign 2 years at .750M avg), Carson (re-sign 2 years at .550M avg), Karlsson (re-sign 2 years at .550M avg). Category Total = $3.121M

    6. Assume/Allow These Prospects to Make NHL Team: Bouma (.693M), Brodie (.742M). Category Total: $1.435

    7. Trade What you Can to Get Return on Costly but Decent players (draft choices): Sarich, Kostopoulos so cap hite = zero.

    8. Don’t Wait and Make Buyouts Happen for Annoying Underachievers (Owners can afford it): Kotalik (cost 1.0M), Hagman (cost 1.0M), Ivanans (cost 0.2M), add previous buyout of Dawes (cost .142M). Category Total = 2.342M

    FINAL Total Spent: $60.668M versus cap of $62.4M (estimated). Cap Space at outset of season = $1.732M

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

    FORWARDS
    Alex Tanguay ($3.400m) / Mikael Backlund ($1.270m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
    Olli Jokinen ($3.000m) / Daymond Langkow ($4.500m) / Rene Bourque ($3.333m)
    Curtis Glencross ($2.550m) / Matthew Stajan ($3.500m) / David Moss ($1.300m)
    Tom Kostopoulos ($0.916m) / Lance Bouma ($0.693m) / Tim Jackman ($0.550m)
    Stefan Meyer ($0.512m)

    DEFENSEMEN
    Jay Bouwmeester ($6.680m) / Robyn Regehr ($4.020m)
    Mark Giordano ($4.020m) / Cory Sarich ($3.600m)
    Adam Pardy ($0.750m) / Brett Carson ($0.750m)
    T.J. Brodie ($0.741m) / John Negrin ($0.790m)

    GOALTENDERS
    Miikka Kiprusoff ($5.833m) / Henrik Karlsson ($0.750m)

    BUYOUTS: Nigel Dawes ($0.141m)

    CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
    (these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
    SALARY CAP: $62,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,603,332; BONUSES: $873,000
    CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,596,668

    • Matty Franchise Jr

      Im going to be a critic now so dont take it personal ok. 1 I doubt Backlund is ready to play against the top boys in the league. 2 Where are Morrison and Babchuk? 3 Jackman proved he can play third line role. 4 Sarich needs to be traded for a mid to late round pick or bought out.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    The above is how I might try to sort out next season, if I was GM.

    Tanguay gets double his old salary. Killer, Pardy, and Carson get 750,000.

    Brodie and Negrin are the most expensive of the Heat D, so if other guys work out better, then some small savings would be realized. Alternatively, cheap free agent D could be brought in instead of Pardy, Carson, or rookies. Guys like Clitsome would be cheap.

    Hagman, Ivanans, and Kotalik are not in the mix. If ownership let me, I’d take a serious look at adding Stajan to the not-in-the-mix group as well.