Another year, another August (mostly) gone by.
We’re now mere days away from September, and with that, mere days away from players arriving en masse back into Calgary, training camp opening, and the preseason kicking off in like… two weeks.
With the passing of another August, so, too, has another month of limited excitement gone by. Troy Brouwer got bought out. Noah Hanifin still has not been signed. And we have officially gone through another edition of the Flames’ top 20 prospects, and one in which top talent really seems to shine.
The top 20
A reminder that the way it works is pretty simple: a player voted in the top spot got 20 points, second place got 19, and etcetera, all the way down to 20th place votes, which garnered a single point. Whoever had the most votes in the end topped the list.
We started with the no-votes and runners up.
Six players – Zach Fischer, Josh Healey, Ryan Lomberg, Mitchell Mattson, Mason McDonald, and Nick Schneider – all failed to make any of our top 20 lists.
Brett Pollock received one point, Eetu Tuulola six, and Yasin Ehliz came close to making the top 20 with 13 points.
And then…
Rank | Prospect | Points |
1 | Juuso Valimaki | 155 |
2 | Rasmus Andersson | 154 |
3 | Andrew Mangiapane | 145 |
4 | Dillon Dube | 137 |
5 | Oliver Kylington | 128 |
6 | Spencer Foo | 117 |
7 | Matthew Phillips | 109 |
8 | Tyler Parsons | 108 |
9 | Jon Gillies | 96 |
10 | Morgan Klimchuk | 89 |
11 | Glenn Gawdin | 77 |
12 | Linus Lindstrom | 71 |
13 | Adam Ruzicka | 59 |
14 | D’Artagnan Joly | 52 |
15 | Dmitry Zavgorodniy | 40 |
16 | Milos Roman | 37 |
17 | Filip Sveningsson | 27 |
18 | Emilio Pettersen | 26 |
19 | Demetrios Kouzmontzis | 19 |
20 | Martin Pospisil | 14 |
A mere point separated our overall ranking between Valimaki and Andersson. Throw in Kylington’s top five ranking – and a fairly definitive one, at that – and the Flames’ prospect strength really does come from the backend.
Though the forwards have a chance at making something of themselves, as well. Mangiapane and Dube shot up the rankings to round out the top five, while Foo didn’t fall too far behind himself. Phillips only just beat out Parsons to squeak into the seventh spot, placing the two goalies right together.
The grouping was, overall, top heavy. The top 10 – really, maybe it should just be top nine – are well-defined, and everyone underneath them – including all five selections from the 2018 draft – are a bit more of a crapshoot, with deference going to those who have generally scored more at higher levels (and a preference for major junior, as Zavgorodniy and Roman separated themselves from the others).
Individual lists
Eight of us voted on lists this year. That means there are eight of us you get to yell at! Hooray.
Rank | Ari | Ryan | Mike | Christian R | Christian T | Bill | Karim | Taylor |
1 | Valimaki | Valimaki | Andersson | Valimaki | Valimaki | Andersson | Mangiapane | Andersson |
2 | Andersson | Andersson | Valimaki | Andersson | Andersson | Valimaki | Valimaki | Mangiapane |
3 | Mangiapane | Dube | Mangiapane | Dube | Mangiapane | Mangiapane | Andersson | Valimaki |
4 | Dube | Mangiapane | Kylington | Mangiapane | Dube | Dube | Dube | Dube |
5 | Foo | Kylington | Dube | Kylington | Kylington | Kylington | Kylington | Kylington |
6 | Kylington | Foo | Foo | Parsons | Foo | Parsons | Foo | Foo |
7 | Phillips | Parsons | Phillips | Phillips | Phillips | Foo | Phillips | Parsons |
8 | Parsons | Phillips | Parsons | Gillies | Gillies | Phillips | Klimchuk | Phillips |
9 | Gillies | Klimchuk | Gillies | Foo | Parsons | Gillies | Parsons | Gillies |
10 | Klimchuk | Gillies | Klimchuk | Lindstrom | Klimchuk | Gawdin | Gillies | Klimchuk |
11 | Lindstrom | Lindstrom | Gawdin | Klimchuk | Joly | Klimchuk | Gawdin | Gawdin |
12 | Gawdin | Gawdin | Lindstrom | Gawdin | Gawdin | Ruzicka | Joly | Ruzicka |
13 | Joly | Ruzicka | Ruzicka | Sveningsson | Lindstrom | Lindstrom | Ruzicka | Lindstrom |
14 | Ruzicka | Roman | Zavgorodniy | Roman | Zavgorodniy | Joly | Lindstrom | Zavgorodniy |
15 | Roman | Zavgorodniy | Pettersen | Ruzicka | Roman | Sveningsson | Ehliz | Joly |
16 | Zavgorodniy | Pettersen | Joly | Zavgorodniy | Pospisil | Pettersen | Koumontzis | Ehliz |
17 | Pettersen | Koumontzis | Svengsson | Joly | Ruzicka | Roman | Roman | Sveningsson |
18 | Pospisil | Joly | Koumontzis | Pettersen | Koumontzis | Zavgorodniy | Pospisil | Roman |
19 | Tuulola | Sveningsson | Tuulola | Koumontzis | Sveningsson | Pospisil | Tuulola | Pettersen |
20 | Koumontzis | Ehliz | Ehliz | Pospisil | Pettersen | Koumontzis | Sveningsson | Pollock |
As usual, I can’t speak for how anyone else’s list shook out: only my own. But I would like to share my basic thought processes once again.
What really helps me in separating these players is dividing them into tiers. Valimaki and Andersson: tier one. Mangiapane and Dube: tier two. Foo, Kylington, and Phillips: tier three, and so on.
From there, it’s a matter of weighing ceiling and immediacy. How good can this prospect be at his peak, versus is he more likely to make the NHL sooner rather than later? For example, I believe Valimaki’s ceiling is higher than Andersson’s, but that Andersson is a bigger threat to make the NHL this season… but Valimaki probably isn’t too far behind, and he has the greater potential, so he won out in my books. But for Mangiapane and Dube, as far as I can tell at this stage, their ceilings may not be too far apart – but Mangiapane, who has already played professionally, is perhaps more likely to make the NHL before Dube, so he got the nod for me there.
Voting was a lot more difficult the further down the list, but that’s because we’re simply not as familiar with those prospects. The guys in my top 10 I have followed and known about and been excited over for a couple of years. None of the others have reached that allure just yet, so ranking them kind of turned into a “let’s see what sticks” affair.
But anyway! That’s how things turned out for us. Agree? Disagree? Just how horribly wrong did we get things, anyway? Sound off in the comments; we’ll soon be seeing a lot of these guys playing, and maybe some will blow the doors off and make it within a month and change.
I believe at the beginning of this series was the premise of being Calder eligible. If that was the case then immediacy should trump ceiling in my opinion. It’s great that 3 of the top 5 are defenders but after that there is really no one; future drafts need to replenish the holes that will be left by Andersson, Valimaki’s and Kylington’s eventually graduation to the big show.
Yeah… meaning if the player is eligible for the Calder trophy they’re considered a prospect. That’s it. Being eligible for an award isn’t a criterion for ranking, it’s a determiner for eligibility on the list.
Thanks for the effort guys! Jobu appreciates. These prospect articles certainly add some life to an otherwise droll offseason.
Hopefully Calgary doesnt trade away all their picks again next year so we can have more new blood to talk about.
DMITRY ZAVGORODNIY Zavgorodniy could be the real “sleeper”, on these lists. If this kid gains a few pounds of muscle, and figures out the North American game a little more… He could be a real interesting, productive prospect. Phillips is the other I can’t wait to see, at the professional level, in Stockton.
I think the most over-rated may unfortunately be Ruzicka. And I’d have Dube, over Mangiapane.
Big year for Parsons, coming. And funny many have Foo so far down the list, but also have him as a potential 4th line forward this season – “on the cusp of making the team”.
Great work all.
Nicely done Flames scouting crew too. Talent in the bigs, more coming. Best situation this franchise has been in since the 80’s.
Steinberg doesn’t get a vote? Seems odd as he is an occasional contributer to this site. More so than Bill and Karim I feel.
#letsteinbergvote
You say that like it’s a bad thing. Have you ever listened to that whiney little twerp?
Steinberg’s an OG when it comes to this site and hockey analytics in general.
Analytics are garbage.
That was meant for doooiestevens
You are a douche bag.
I wouldn’t call him a whining little twerp but the only reason I ever listened to the afternoon show was due to Kerr. He is not an entertaining host IMO. No reason to listen to the Fan in the afternoon anymore. Hope they get a quality co-host
The only thing Edmonton does better than Calgary.
I dunno..I met a few times and just gives me thebslimeball, used car salesman vibe. Plilus he is a terrible radio voice and personality.
Rob Kerr and Joe sports was the greatest sports radio show ever! I miss the good ol days.
Steinberg is not little have you ever meet the guy? Whiny and twerp is debatable.
Why do you feel personal attacks are necessary? Consider this a warning.
He’s busy! Though I should hit him up next time around to see if he has time to contribute.
I thought I was high on Mangiapane. Jeeze Karim, #1?
I was a bit taken aback at that as well. Karim, pass me that blunt
I know I’m a bit of an outlier there, but I really think Mangiapane has the potential to be an impact top six forward in the NHL. He’s done nothing but light up the AHL (second in P/GP last season) and I don’t think it’s fair to criticize his 10 games in the NHL at all, especially considering he played with Stajan/Brouwer/Lazar for 99% of his shifts. You have to look at the player’s ceiling, not their floor.
Understandable absolutely, but aren’t Andersson and Valimaki more surefire bets to be high impact players in the NHL? This is largely due to the opportunities available to rookie dmen versus rookie forwards. Highly likely one rookie dman gets in to the NHL this season, and depending on how Harmonic/Brodie/Stone rebound, we could be looking at another next season. On the forward however, there’s a bit of a logjam. Next to impossible for Mangiapane to break into the top 6, very difficult to break into top 9.
I agree. Just not sure as #1.
I wouldn’t call him a whining little twerp but the only reason I ever listened to the afternoon show was due to Kerr. He is not an entertaining host IMO. No reason to listen to the Fan in the afternoon anymore. Hope they get a quality co-host
I’m posting stutterer
I know Mangiapane played with Stajan and Lazar last year which wasn’t ideal. But (big but) he never did a single thing to separate himself from those two. JMO he is never going to be a regular in the NHL. What is it that makes him so appealing to most of you. He was successful in the A but that means next to nothing. Also I have no problem with smallish players as long as they bring grit or a bit of an edge something this team seriously (and I mean seriously) was lacking last year. Dube has some of that. Maybe early but by mid season Dube will supplant Mangiapane on the depth chart.
What you say is true but I still think Mang could go either way – it is probably too early to tell. I am old enough to remember Marty St. Louis in a Flames jersey and I can tell you there was absolutely nothing remarkable about his on ice play for the Flames the first time he got called up (13 games – 2 pts.). He looked more promising the next year but Calgary gave up on him, probably because they thought he was too small. The league is different now so I think Mang will get his chance with Calgary but he needs to produce if he is going to get top 9 or top 6 ice time.
Interesting. What makes you think Dube can score at the next level….we sure know that Mangi can. Dube could be a better fit on the Flames 4th line but Mangi looks like has he more to offer when he is with skilled players. Lazar has left me jaded a little bit…I was really pulling for him.
My criteria for evaluating prospects would be complicated as it would encompass everything from ceiling to immediate impact to chances of making the NHL, etc.
But my process for ranking prospects would be dead simple: who would you rather keep?
And, as I mentioned in a previous post, I see Mangiapane and Dube as quite far apart (and in the reverse order listed here). Mangiapane will make the team as a goal scorer, or not at all. Dube’s ceiling is probably pretty similar but his overall skill set makes him a virtual lock to be an important contributor for a decade. If you could only keep one of them, which would it be?
I wonder if this could come down to having to many centres as potentials all of a sudden. I know the argument is that you can never have to many centres, but for trade value and depth…it looks to suddenly go from defence to centre?
Dube. Might eventually replace Backlund…
He won’t be THAT good
I think the old saying that familiarity breeds contempt applies really well to our attitudes towards prospects. It is interesting that virtually all of this years drafts make the top 20 while players that have kicked around the system awhile ( McDonald, Schneider, Pollock, Tuulola…) are nowhere to be seen. I don’t know if a top 20 prospects list was created 2 years ago but I have to think players like Tuulola, Pollock and McDonald were probably on it.
I wouldn’t put too much into it , I don’t think most of these writers even played Hockey so ………
That means very little…
I couldn’t find the final rankings for 2016, but here was the concensus (or close to) amongst flamesnation readers.
1-Tkachuk
2-Kylington
3-Andersson
4-Shinkaruk
5-Gillies
6-Poirier
7-Jankowski
8-Kulak
9-Pribyl
10-Culkin
11-Pollock
12-Mangiapane
13-Parsons
14-Hickey
15-Dube
16-Klimchuck
17-McDonald
18-Fox
19-Tuulola
20-Lindstrom
I don’t think it’s that familiarity breeds contempt. Just that some players continued to evolve and get better while others plateaued.
The one guy affected by recency bias to me is Tuulola. A junior age guy 6th in a good pro league (and I believe I read that he was #2 in the second half had to rank ahead of some recent late round picks. I’m not saying he should be 15 or above but I think he deserves to be in top 20.
I agree, and I raised that in the near misses article. Tool is coming off a 0.5PPG season in a fairly good pro league. That beats anything Pospisil or Koumontzis have done, at the very least.
Thanks for making August bearable FN writers!
The last month- every night about dinner time onwards, I watch the sky. No, I’m not looking for forest fires. I’m watching a marvel unfold.
Cuz there’s people doing a feat that I’d never do… skydiving!
I honestly don’t know how they do it—free falling for what seems like eternity, before they open their chute. I have no idea how high they are- (10,000ft?) but it amazes me every time!
I get vertigo just being on a high building, let alone pretending I’m a bird in the sky. They land in a field about a mile away from my home. Is it bravery, thrill seeking or just a sport? Maybe all the above.
In contrast to our prospects, some appear to have taken a dive, others have steadily improved, soaring like a bird in the sky.
One thing that always makes an impression on me- the winds can change (quickly) and although we watch from afar- it can make a huge outcome in landing safely in the NHL.
Coaching, proper eating, workout regimen and mental makeup are all factors to consider. As are possible injuries.
Deployment of the chutes is one important step never to be taken lightly. Same with deployment of these prospects.
If deployed properly, we will have an enjoyable experience- watching our young prospects take the plunge.
It’s exhilarating to watch!
Otw I’ve done some freefallin it’s nothing like hockey lol but there both really Fun .
I’ll take your word for it Carl—
I’ve been flown in helicopters and small planes for 5 years (firefighting) and not ONCE did I ever think it would be fun to JUMP out of one!
Call me crazy…
And I paid money for it too lol
IS IT SEPTEMBER 15TH YET????!!!??! Sorry, I get a little excited when I have too much coffee in the morning.
Jobu hopes we have more than the Radio broadcast during the China games. Streaming on the website perhaps?
2 days ago FN posted the Flames broadcast schedule and both China games are Live on Sportsnet
Must have glossed over that. Thanks!
I thought Sportsnet was broadcasting both, Jobu. Like just past midnight for the first one and 5:30 am on the second.
Thanks for the great work FN.
Where would Fox slot in on this list? I’d say probably 5 for me.
Probably just below Ras. Ahead of Mangiapane.
Fox had a down year.
So… will we be seeing most of these guys when the Flames go to China? I always liked that Penticton tournament for that reason.
By the sounds of things, the vets are going to China. Most of this list will stay home for preseason in North America.
from what it sounds like 97% pro roster is going to china to team build.. The 2nd roster will be trying for a roster slot or Ahl players spots…
Another random observation unrelated to the article. I was so wondering what impact heading to China might have. Standings at the end of October last year had LA and Vancouver 2nd and 4th in the West respectively, the two teams that want to China. Obviously it’s a small sample size as they were first teams to do it, but fingers crossed Calgary get a similarly good start this season.
It’ll be fantastic. China is great and the boys will bond like nothing else.
I think it will be perfect. They brought in alot of new faces, and what better way to bond together by doing something like that.
Great exercise. I agree with most of the selections but I have Ras #1 however I admit I have not seen Valimaki play a lot. He has a lot of supporters from hockey minds that know the game better than me so I am intrigued. Phillips is the other player that I feel is going to make a statement at the pro level and be in the running for the AHL rookie race.
My biggest concerns on the list is Dube’s scoring at the next level, is he Brayden Point or Curtis Lazar. Parsons health worries me as it seems to be something different all the time…I wonder if he is just unlucky.
Will look forward this year to Mangiapane not playing on Brouwer’s line this year. Really like the top 13 of this list and hope they can really put pressure on those ahead of them and make the Flames a very competitive team this year.
Random Sean Monahan quote
“I feel like a new man right now,” the 23-year-old center said at Scotiabank Saddledome, where several Calgary players skated informally. “I’m more flexible, more mobile, meaner and stronger, so I think it’s a good feeling to be healthy.”
He gets 40 or more this year.
I would love to see a meaner version of Monahan, but I won’t hold my breath.
Had the same thought. Monahan is to mean what Gaudreau is to Mr. Big and Tall.
Top 2 will have a NHL career…
3-6 have a shot…..
7+ are a long shot…..
WW
For tomorrow’s article: prospects by position: D, Forwards, Goalies.
So we can discuss where the holes are…
WW
Dube is a lock to be an NHL’er.
Where would Demko rank on this list…?
WW
https://mobile.twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1035321437618413573
Maybe some good news tomorrow
Tsn sez’ long-term deal for Hanifin to be announced shortly.
It always amuses me that ON doesn’t do their own top 20 prospect list. If only they would..I could use some laughs during the dog days of summer…
Underrated: Joly, Gawdin
Overrated: Kylington, Valimaki
Not enough info to rank: late rounders picked this year
Using the criteria of whether I would trade someone lower on the list for someone ranked higher above them, I’d have Parsons at 3 and Dube above Mangi. I’d also slot Gillies a couple of slots higher, even though he’s potentially going to be a hit or a miss, rather than an ok.