What is to be done with Andrei Kuzmenko? Does keeping a player longer make sense if it is only for the purpose of maximizing value? X User @B_Canadian_Ape this is it, the bright lights, the big times, your 15 Minutes of Flame.

Andrei Kuzmenko came to Calgary in the bounteous Elias Lindholm trade. In a deal that featured a 2024 first round pick (Matvei Gridin) and Hunter Brzustewicz (who was in the middle of 92-point standout OHL season), Kuzmenko was not the focal point. The Flames were selling their top-tier players; prospects and picks were the real prize, not a player who was scoring at below a 0.5 point-per-game pace. However, the chatty and energetic Kuzmenko dazzled Flames fans by scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace for the rest of the season and changed the narrative. Now, the real excitement set in: Did the Flames acquire a relatively young scoring forward to hang onto during their retool or did they have a perfect trade chip for the 2024-2025 trade deadline?

The answer came this season in the form of a scoring slump, a few healthy scratches, and a loss of the momentum he had built in the latter half of last season. Kuzmenko had regressed like this another time in his short NHL career. His phenomenal 39 goal first season with the Vancouver Canucks was followed up by a half season of reduced scoring where he was ultimately traded to the Flames.

As Canadian_Ape suggested above, Kuzmenko’s trade value has diminished so rather than getting off the Kuzmenko-coaster should the Flames consider extending him? The idea being that they would resurrect his trade value by buying more years of service. If you are familiar with the sunk cost fallacy then consider that when Calgary traded for Kuzmenko he wasn’t scoring at a relentless pace and even if he has shown the capability to do so the team risks holding on to a pending free agent and losing any chance to recoup an asset. The Flames did not acquire him as a point-per-game player and therefore do not need top-dollar to make good on his value.

At the last three trade deadlines players with similar statistics were traded for fourth or fifth-round picks. Andrew Cogliano (fifth) and Zach Sanford (fifth) in 2022, Oskar Sundqvist (fourth) in 2023, Jack Roslovic (conditional fourth) in 2024. There are more examples and many outliers and different circumstances but the core idea is that those players’ scoring percentages are near what Kuzmenko is tallying this season. The Flames would obviously have room to eat half of his contract but that may not make an enormous difference in value as he is being paid as a much higher scoring player.

What might pique the interest of a contender is that they can get Kuzmenko at a discount and rationalize that they can insulate him better than any other team could. Some of his current line-mates have been recent call-ups Rory Kerins, Clark Bishop, as well as Yegor Sharangovich who is also struggling to score. On the more stable third line of a contending team he might regain his scoring touch and for a fifth-round pick that is a tempting gamble to take.

Last night’s performance against the Minnesota Wild was the perfect example of what Kuzmenko could bring to a team looking to add skill for pennies on the dollar.

Let’s not ignore the original ask by B_Canadian_Ape, if the Flames did approach Kuzmenko with a contract offer what would that even look like? They have plenty of cap space but how much do previous services rendered play into the player’s ask? Kuzmenko is an NHL career 0.57 points-per-game player but has only been a 0.32 player this season. Both of those numbers are from small sample sizes so does that mean the real Kuzmenko lies somewhere in-between? He will always have the 39 goal season as a feather in his cap and he is simply too new of a commodity to make definite judgments on.

Consider Anthony Duclair who has had a longer tenure in the NHL but similar numbers to Kuzmenko in the past few seasons. Specifically last season when his points-per-game elevated immediately after a trade to a new team. Duclair signed a deal with New York Islanders for four years with $3.5 million AAV.

Kuzmenko will not command that kind of money or term but if he is willing to subtract a million and a half dollars and a year or two of time he might find a team willing to wait for his scoring to return. The problem with that plan is three-fold: 1) Does Kuzmenko want a deal with term or a single year contract to prove that he is worth more? 2) Does he think Calgary gives him the best opportunity to return to his former glory? 3) Does Calgary want the reclamation project when they are already inserting younger players into the line-up and working to revive other players’ careers? They have a considerable amount of cap space now but even a few million dollars means a lot when you have to start paying the rest of the up-and-coming youth on this team.

There is a final argument that isn’t as explicit in its finality but might make some sense considering the season the team is having: Are Dustin Wolf’s Calgary Flames helped or hindered by Kuzmenko’s absence? Even with his limited contribution is a fifth-round pick worth changing the make-up of a team in the playoff chase?

The reality is that not trading him followed by not re-signing him is not a substantial loss. If Kuzmenko played well until the end of the season, helped the team make a playoff push, and still liked it in Calgary they could welcome him back at a reduced rate. If not, they could part ways without any bad blood between them.