We’re not quite sure when hockey will return for the 2020-21 season—aside from that it’ll be in 2021—but several Calgary Flames players are headed towards pivotal campaigns. As we prepare for 2020-21, we’re digging into the likely Flames roster player by player to determine what we can expect from them.

Next on the docket is the streaky sniper whose scoring pace zigzags from a projected 40-goal push one season to a citywide prayer that he notches just one (1) even-strength goal those playoffs, Sean Monahan.

Hailing from Brampton, Ontario, Monahan played three years of major junior in the OHL for the Ottawa 67’s. While he thrived through all three seasons in the nation’s capital—exhibiting a stitched third letter of the Latin alphabet on his chest for his final year—the team failed to echo his consistency.

The 67’s finished last in league standings in Monahan’s final season for the club, faltered nearly thrice as often as they won. But the captain impressed nonetheless, booking himself a ticket to Newark for the 2013 NHL Entry Draft where the Calgary Flames picked him sixth overall.

Monahan plunged into his NHL career directly out of camp his first summer with the team, posting 22 goals in his rookie campaign and stockpiling enough Calder votes to finish 8th in the race.

Since his debut, Monahan has established himself as a premier goal-scorer at the highest level. He trails his wingers on zone entries, parks himself in the slot and whacks, jams, blasts loose pucks and one-timers from between the hashmarks.

Monahan has never failed to score 20 goals in a season, eclipsing the 30-goal threshold thrice and the 60-point mark four times over his first seven seasons. Two seasons ago represented the zenith of his career so far: 34 goals, 82 points. Last year warned of a premature nadir: 22 goals, 48 points.

An elite scorer one year, a fringe first-liner the next—what can Flames fans reasonably expect the centreman to showcase in a shortened season hitherto shrouded by unanswered questions?

The final three years of his contract coincide with three crucial years of his prime, so this upcoming season demands Monahan to redefine where he fits in an NHL top six. So, a narrative of either resurgence or (repeat) regression seems to be looming that will largely sculpt his role and paycheque for the latter half of his career.

The principal factors forking these roads of resurgence and regression seem to be twofold: when and where will Monahan score, and who will be the linemates feeding him the puck?

One reason why Monahan suffered such a dive in scoring last season stemmed from an emphatic lull in individual even-strength shooting percentage. Monahan converted only 8.80% of his even-strength shots on goal last year; before that, his career shooting percentage was 13.35%. One of those rates is not like the other—while he produced even-strength shots at a higher clip last year (1.79 per game) than his career average (1.67 per game), it was his execution that dwindled.

So, while folks in Calgary undoubtedly recall his even-strength scoring of late with mutters and shudders, his overall average tendency spanning the last seven years suggests that, assuming he plays at his neutral normal level, he should improve in that regard this season.

Another dip in Monahan’s production can be linked to a peculiar plummet in power play shots. While he scored 8 of his 22 goals last season on the power play, he only logged 29 shots with the man advantage. The year before, he had 51 power play shots, and 56 the year prior, and 53, and so on and so on. Tack on the extra 12 games plucked from the schedule due to the pandemic, and Monahan finishes the season with roughly 34 power play shots maintaining that pace.

Whether the team implemented new power play strategies that neglected Monahan in the slot (save for rebounds, of course) or the olfactory receptors in his nose attuned to the dirty areas deactivated at some point, Monahan’s blade as a trigger-man was simply not as involved in the power play this past season as it usually has been in his career. If he can recapture his power play presence next season, Flames fans can reasonably expect an uptick in power play goals back to standard output—after all, his individual power play shooting percentage last season was a bewildering 27.59% despite the restrained artillery.

Sean Monahan, however, is also a bit of a leech. Finishers profit from lucrative, fruitful playmakers. For years, Johnny Gaudreau has been the locomotive chugging headlong into the offensive zone to twist and twirl until his caboose, i.e. Monahan, occupies some open track. When Gaudreau is hot, Monahan is hot—see 2018-2019, where Monahan served 48 assists to linemates boasting career years in goals. When Gaudreau is not (cue debilitating flashbacks from the last year and a half), Monahan is not. So, usage and partnerships and chemistry will prove just as pivotal this season in determining how Monahan fares as his own shooting habits.

But who will Monahan centre? If Geoff Ward dabbles in moving Elias Lindholm to the first-line centre slat, Monahan and Gaudreau will have a new winger on their flank. Dillon Dube? Josh Leivo? Mikael Backlund in a breach of natural positioning? Or will Ward preserve the established first line with Lindholm on the wing, overlooking the recent downs to uncover past ups? Regardless, Monahan cannot succeed as a black sheep—that linemate needs to thrive for him to thrive. And hey, a sturdy body like Dube or Leivo might inject some desperately needed toughness into that line. More battles won means more pucks retrieved means more puck possession means more shooting opportunities for the starved and struggling centreman. But at the end of the day, expect Sean Monahan to mirror his compadres to minute degrees.

Ultimately, Flames fans can reasonably expect Sean Monahan to convert on more even-strength chances and take more shots on the power play should he revert to his normal numbers in those regards. If so, he could feasibly return to the impressive goal-scoring talent recognizable throughout the past decade. In a 56-game season, stabilization in those two fields would bag him roughly 20 goals—a 29-goal equivalent over 82 games that imitates precisely the Sean Monahan Flames fans expect to see on a nightly basis in his current role as a first-line pivot. If he continues to stumble, however, all fans can expect is a sober acceptance of Sean Monahan as a second-line calibre centreman in this league, once and for all.

But at least the man will always, always, always win faceoffs.