2020-21 Reasonable Expectations: Noah Hanifin

Quick! Before Brad Treliving tosses him to the Boston Bruins for Ondrej Kase!

All ancient trade rumours aside, 23-year-old defenceman Noah Hanifin is entering his third season on the secondary left flank of the Calgary Flames’ blueline. Sketching his trajectory this year, then, still demands the artist to jot down some notes about his development so far, his glaring youth, his possible partners, his favoured deployment and his offensive upside. Oh—and how will he fare with Juuso Valimaki potentially piercing the top four himself before the season’s close?

Let the unboxing begin.

What was the best thing to come out of Boston in 1997?

Good Will Hunting, obviously—a movie whose best quality was not the lively, witty Oscar-winning script penned by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck nor the grizzled yet tender Oscar-winning performance from Robin Williams but the absolutely exquisite soundtrack featuring SIX songs by Oscar-nominated songwriting legend Elliott Smith, as an aside.

But Noah Hanifin was also born there that year. He grew up playing hockey in Massachusetts, dipped west to play in the US National Development program, and returned to that coastal Shangri-La of Dunkin’ Donuts to suit up for Boston College in his draft year.

Hanifin attracted attention as a prospect for his towering frame (now pencilled in at 6’3″ and 215 pounds), powerful stride and shrewd, astute puck movement. Ranked as the top defenceman of his class, Hanifin stormed the stage at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft in the first round, fifth overall to join the Carolina Hurricanes.

For three seasons Hanifin helmed a steady position on the Hurricanes blueline, notching 32 points and a berth in the NHL All-Star game (but like seriously) in 2018. Come summertime that year, the Flames acquired him alongside Elias Lindholm in a blockbuster swap that bid goodbyes to Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland and Adam Fox.

Since he arrived in Calgary, Hanifin has occupied a solid top four role on defence. As the blueline leader in giveaways last year, there have been gaffes—but on the right pairing and playing his mobile, engaged game, there have also been glimmers of a future minute-gobbling fixture. His third year in Carolina was his best, and it is not too outlandish for Flames fans to expect likewise in his third season up north.

An opening caveat: Hanifin may not have peaked yet. He burst into the league at 18, his durability is unmatched, so it seems like the narrative on his career is shut and bound and sealed. It is not. Improvement is not impossible for 23-year-old defencemen—repeat it through a megaphone for the cynics in the cheap seats. Improvement is not guaranteed in the slightest either, but the decent middle-pair defenceman who sometimes gets burned wide and whiffs clearance attempts is not condemned to that characterization for the next 10 years. Phew.

So, before anything else, Flames fans can expect Hanifin to mature. He will turn 24 within weeks of the season’s tentative outset, and alongside an additional year logged on this planet he logged another in this league, refined his play every night. Whether the age-induced improvement proves incremental or immense is unclear, but it is perfectly reasonable to anticipate a drop in giveaways at the very least. After all, enough lapses on that front and the staff will dimply demote you to a position where you physically cannot make so many mistakes.

But beside whom will he be guarding the blueline? The two likeliest candidates for his partner on the second pairing this season are Rasmus Andersson and Chris Tanev.

Now, Hanifin and Andersson positively thrived as a duo thrust together by circumstance in the play-in series against the Winnipeg Jets after Hamonic withdrew from the roster. Against the Dallas Stars? Not as resounding a success, sure, but the two still cemented themselves this summer as a largely solid defensive tandem in this league. All preventing another season starring them as a pair, honestly, seems to be the tangible chance that Andersson graduates to the top pairing beside Mark Giordano.

But shadowing Tanev just might expand Hanifin’s role on the Flames blueline. Touted as a prototypical shutdown defenceman, Tanev invites match-ups against strong opponents. His offensive numbers, however, lend little to fortify an attacking troop in the other team’s end. Matched with Tanev, Hanifin would likely establish himself as the premier puck-mover on that pair—while Andersson could easily shoulder, split those duties every night. Hanifin already led all Flames defencemen last season with the highest on-ice even-strength xGF. With a seasoned stay-at-home force at his rear, one could expect Hanifin to engineer plenty of his own breakout and rush opportunities starting in his own zone, which could then transform into more lanes, more touches, more points in the offensive zone. And hey, even if a partnership with Tanev pins him in the defensive zone against daunting forecheckers? Well, all the more opportunity for Hanifin to showcase why he quietly led all Flames defencemen in hits last season, too.

And the Valimaki in the room. The star of the top Finnish league this fall, Juuso Valimaki may challenge for a top-four role on the Calgary sooner rather than later as the season unravels. If he plays the right side alongside Hanifin, that will in no way affect the latter’s deployment or role. If he plays left, however, Hanifin could see himself shuffled. So Flames fans can reasonably expect Hanifin to play with a purpose, preserving his role on that second pair—which he wholly deserves—only by a consistent reinforcement of his worth. And if Valimaki somehow falters at the NHL level? Consider Hanifin short-term insurance against any team-wide consequences posed by that possibility.

So, expect Hanifin to maintain his top-four role and top-four numbers at the very least. If his deployment encourages greater emphasis on his offensive game—and if Giordano wanes in his age— expect Hanifin to vie for the team’s defensive scoring crown alongside Andersson. Expect him to use his sturdy build to his advantage. And expect him to slowly but surely shed the blips and blunders that plague young defencemen—especially those still three years estranged from their prime.