Adjusted Corsi Check-In

Once in a while, we like to check in with the Calgary Flames on an individual basis to see how they’re doing relative to their positions on the team. But that can be tough with raw Corsi numbers or other unadjusted analytics because players are used differently and have different roles.

Thankfully, via our pal Michael Parkatti, we have Adjusted Corsi to save the day.

There will be a lot of terms used in the below tables. Here’s the gist of what you need to know.

Corsi QoC: A measure of the quality of the players an individual plays against (QoC) based upon their on-ice Corsi. Higher numbers mean tougher competition.

Corsi QoT: Similar to the previous metric, a measure of the quality of the players an individual plays with (QoT) based upon their on-ice Corsi. (Calgary’s numbers are entirely negative because Calgary is not a good Corsi team.)

OZS%: Percentage of all even-strength shifts that begin in the offensive zone (ignoring all neutral zone starts; just comparing offensive and defensive deployments).

Corsi On: A player’s Corsi plus/minus (the difference in all shots, blocked shots and missed shots) when they’re on the ice.

Expected Corsi: Based on a metric developed by Michael Parkatti (over at Boys on the Bus), it’s calculated thusly: (Quality Difference [QoT – QoC]) + (Zone Start% x 0.24) – 11.91. It’s what your Corsi On is expected to be given the circumstances you play in.

Adjusted Corsi: The difference between your Expected Corsi and your Corsi On. A positive number indicates you’re doing better than expected, a negative number worse than expected.

Sample size warnings about Stajan and Backlund, obviously, but that’s a pretty surprising group up there at the top. And it’s mostly young guys and Jiri Hudler. Byron, in particular, needs to be either re-signed or traded immediately to maximize his value.

On the flip-side, Ferland has played against tough competition and has sample size is small, but that’s not a great start. Bollig is flat-out not very good. Weird that Setoguchi got demoted while so many guys have worse underlyings than him. But the guys below him on this chart play a role. And/or score goals.

And Baertschi’s QoC is crazy-low. Like, easier comp than the fourth liners. That’s crazy.

I’m really interested to see what happens with Raymond, Colborne and Stajan once everyone’s healthy, given that Glencross and Monahan have been ridden hard (in terms of tough minutes) along with Jones and Bouma.

Brodie and Giordano are super-duper. Wideman, Russell and Smid are decent. (Smid is surprising!) Engelland is not that good. Diaz’s numbers are bad but his sample size is small compared to the other guys.

I have much less to say about the defensemen than the forwards, simply because the forwards are moved around a lot more, and there have been a lot of injuries and guys are coming in and out of the line-up and up and down from Adirondack.