After Los Angeles’ Wednesday win, the Calgary Flames remain mathematically alive (but barely)
By Ryan Pike
3 months agoOn Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Kings beat the Seattle Kraken. The Kings’ win did not eliminate the Calgary Flames from the playoff hunt, but the Flames’ marginal post-season chances have been dwindling and could be fully extinguished with anything but a Flames win in Winnipeg on Thursday evening.
Let’s get into the dire math the Flames are facing.
The Flames have 73 points and eight games remaining. If they win every remaining games, they can reach 89 points. (The odds are distinctly against the Flames rolling off eight wins, but it’s technically possible.) Seven Western Conference teams already have more points than the Flames can possibly accumulate: Dallas (103), Colorado (100), Vancouver (100), Winnipeg (96), Edmonton (95), Vegas (92) and Nashville (90).
The Kings’ win pushed them to 89 points (and 39 wins, 32 regulation wins and 36 regulation/overtime wins). So, at best, the Flames could tie the Kings in standings points by winning out – this would also require Los Angeles to lose every remaining game on their schedule in regulation – and then eke into a post-season spot by virtue of the standings tiebreakers. The tiebreakers are, in order: regulation wins, regulation/overtime wins, overall wins, and then head-to-head record. If the Flames won out, they’d likely surpass the Kings in those tiebreakers.
As such, the Flames remain mathematically alive until they fail to win a game – making it impossible for them to reach 89 points – or Los Angeles earns another point – pushing them beyond 89 points.
It’s worth noting that once the Flames are mathematically eliminated from the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs, it will become impossible for them to select in the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft at 20th overall or later. As a result, the first of their many (many!) trade conditions in the Sean Monahan trade with Montreal will become impossible to fulfill – Montreal won’t have the option to take the Flames’ 2024 first-rounder – and the conditions for their 2025 and 2026 draft choices will remain in force.
(As Monahan trade conditions begin to become impossible to fulfill, we’ll provide an update on what conditions remain in force and which have fallen by the wayside.)
Nevertheless, the Flames remain hanging on by a thread. And that thread could snap completely on Thursday evening in Winnipeg.
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