Analyzing Johnny Gaudreau’s torrid first quarter

We all know Johnny Gaudreau is having an incredible start to the season, so I’ll save you some sort of obvious “this guy is really good” hot take. But, even knowing how well Gaudreau has played through the first quarter, I was still blown away when looking at his scoring rates through 21 games. Gaudreau is playing better than we’ve ever seen him, but it might surprise you by how much.

Gaudreau had his point streak snapped at 10 and his goal scoring streak halted at six in Calgary’s 1-0 overtime loss to Columbus on Wednesday, but that doesn’t change his place on the NHL’s scoring list. Through one quarter of the season, only two players have produced more than Gaudreau.

Even knowing Gaudreau has been a top 10 point producer the last couple years, seeing a Flames player that highly ranked is impressive. I can almost guarantee, though, a more thorough look at Gaudreau’s production will impress you even more.

It’s important to note how productive Gaudreau has been throughout his short NHL career. Since his 2014-15 rookie season, Gaudreau has been one of the league’s most productive players relative to his time on ice. By using points-per-60 at all strengths via Corsica (minimum 2,000 minutes), you can see how prolific Gaudreau has been and the company he’s kept since entering the league.

Seeing Gaudreau in that company may not shock you, especially taking powerplay points into account on top of five-on-five play. Prior to running the numbers, I figured he was going to be right around the top 10, but it’s still impressive to see him on the same page with names like Crosby, Malkin, and McDavid.

Additionally, Gaudreau’s playmaking ability has him even higher up the list. Since the start of 2014-15, Gaudreau’s assists-per-60 rate of 1.89 is eighth overall, trailing all time great playmakers like Joe Thornton and Nicklas Backstrom (McDavid’s 2.31 mark is the highest). So, yeah, Gaudreau has put up points in his three-plus seasons in the NHL, but you already knew that.

So let’s take a deeper look at what Gaudreau has done through 21 games this season, because it’s stunning.

What really jumps out is Gaudreau’s productivity five-on-five. In his first three NHL seasons, Gaudreau was good but not incredible; his 2.08 points-per-60 is 24th best at five-on-five. This season has seen him take a massive step forward.

Those are staggering jumps when compared to Gaudreau’s three-season average. While this year’s scoring rates are likely unsustainable at the above clip, it doesn’t make what he’s done through 21 games any less impressive. The guy has been on an unbelievable tear with no sign of slowing down, even after having a couple streaks snapped on Wednesday.

Gaudreau’s points-per-60 ranks him seventh at five-on-five and second behind only Stamkos overall. Both marks are encouraging, but seeing Gaudreau look so dangerous at even strength is the more significant number of the two, even if it does come down a little.

We see the same type of massive jumps when looking at Gaudreau’s assist totals, too.

Once again, Gaudreau has taken some big strides, especially at five-on-five. His assists-per-60 rate has gone from eighth to third at all strengths, which is good. At even strength, though, that number has gone from 18th to 10th.

One of the criticisms pointed at Gaudreau through his first three seasons pertained his five-on-five play, and was warranted at times. This season, however, is a different story, as Gaudreau has produced across the board and has carried the offensive load on his back.

That doesn’t mean Gaudreau hasn’t been deadly on the powerplay, though. In fact, only four other players have been more prolific with the man advantage.

So let’s put it into context: Gaudreau is one of the NHL’s top 10 most productive players overall, at five-on-five, and on the powerplay. We all knew he was playing out of his mind hockey, but I didn’t realize just how ridiculous a tear he’s been on until I really dug into the numbers.

Only a handful of players have been as truly dangerous as we’ve seen from Gaudreau through the first half of the season. On top of that, I think it would be tough to find a player more important to his team up to this point. Gaudreau has been in on more than 50% of Calgary’s goals this season, which is just another reason why I’d argue he’s been Calgary’s MVP through the first quarter of the season.