Black Box: Week 14
12 years ago
The road trips we warned you about are over, and the Flames walked away with 5 points in 7 games after 2 points in first 4, which actually isn’t that bad a fate for the league’s worst road team. Now they’re back at home where they have 7 wins in the past 8 games, thanks most recently to their softie over Minnesota Saturday.
This week they should easily handle Anaheim, and hopefully beat at least one of New Jersey and Los Angeles before heading off on a reasonably easier road trip – it’s only three games and features both Edmonton, and San Jose, where even the Ducks can win (2 of their 3 road wins are over the Sharks).
OZQoC Charts (explanation)
The OZQoC Chart got a little more crowded after “everybody gets to play” week. Lance Bouma played against top competition but in the offensive zone, Blair Jones and Clay Wilson start in the defensive zone, but against the 3rd and 4th lines, and Raitis Ivanans got Scotiabank Kid minutes (and results).
Even-Strength Scoring (explanation)
It can be daunting to make sense of all these numbers, but if you learned nothing else these past few weeks, just learn this: Mikael Backlund is actually playing very well.
You can see from the OZQoC chart that Backlund plays top-six minutes, just like Curtis Glencross, Olli Jokinen, Jarome Iginla, and Alex Tanguay. Despite playing in those tough situations the only player with whom the Flames have greater territorial advantage is Matt Stajan – and he plays exclusively against fourth lines, and usually in the offensive zone.
Look at the numbers for yourself. The most successful of the other four top-liners, Alex Tanguay, is only at 48.0%. The problem is that far-right column, because even though the Flames enjoy 53.9% of the shots with Backlund, and 52.1% of the scoring chances, they’re only getting 32.1% of the goals.
Also, as we’ve discussed the same sort of thing is happening to that third line of Matt Stajan, Tim Jackman and Tom Kostopoulos.
Forward ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Lance Bouma 5.5 99 28 78.2% 27 16 62.5% 5.49 0.00 100.0% Matt Stajan 1.1 56 47 54.2% 14 13 52.1% 1.77 2.88 38.1% Mikael Backlund 0.7 58 49 53.9% 17 15 52.1% 1.50 3.18 32.1% Lee Stempniak 1.5 55 49 53.0% 16 15 51.4% 2.30 2.96 43.7% David Moss 1.9 55 49 53.0% 11 14 43.3% 1.85 1.48 55.6% Tim Jackman 1.1 52 49 51.3% 12 13 49.4% 1.26 3.14 28.6% Blake Comeau 0.7 52 50 50.9% 13 13 50.4% 0.87 2.60 25.1% Tom Kostopoulos 1.0 49 49 50.1% 12 12 50.6% 1.72 3.16 35.2% Alex Tanguay 1.8 50 54 48.0% 19 15 55.8% 2.48 2.62 48.6% Jarome Iginla 1.9 52 58 47.0% 17 17 50.6% 2.47 2.74 47.4% Rene Bourque 1.4 43 51 46.1% 13 16 44.8% 2.56 2.82 47.6% Blair Jones 1.4 41 48 46.0% 16 31 33.3% 1.42 1.77 44.5% Curtis Glencross 2.2 49 57 45.9% 15 17 46.9% 2.69 3.12 46.3% Olli Jokinen 2.1 50 59 45.9% 15 17 47.7% 3.01 2.92 50.8% Brendan Morrison 1.5 46 54 45.7% 15 16 48.1% 2.31 2.31 50.0% Greg Nemisz 0.0 34 43 44.5% 4 9 33.3% 0.00 0.00 0.0% P-L. Leblond 0.0 46 58 43.9% 8 12 40.0% 4.16 0.00 100.0% Roman Horak 1.4 40 53 43.3% 13 13 50.9% 2.13 1.52 58.4% Paul Byron 1.2 35 53 40.0% 12 12 50.0% 1.92 0.77 71.4% Raitis Ivanans 0.0 27 65 29.4% 5 27 16.7% 0.00 5.41 0.0%
The Calgary Flame who is scoring at the highest even-strength rate is Curtis Glencross, followed by his linemate Olli Jokinen – one of the few bright spots at even-strength this season.
On defense the big message is that Scott Hannan continues his deterioration since Mark Giordano’s injury. The Flames may have a lot of defensemen, but very few of them are really capable of playing in the front four, and at this stage of his career Hannan can’t carry dead weight anymore.
Defense ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Brett Carson 0.0 70 41 63.4% 19 11 63.6% 0.00 5.41 0.0% T.J. Brodie 0.9 51 44 53.6% 15 12 54.9% 2.29 2.29 50.0% Cory Sarich 0.2 52 48 52.3% 14 10 57.7% 1.78 1.95 47.7% Derek Smith 0.8 50 50 49.9% 15 13 52.3% 2.08 1.82 53.3% Chris Butler 0.6 51 53 49.2% 16 16 50.4% 2.48 2.56 49.2% Jay Bouwmeester 0.6 51 53 48.8% 15 16 48.5% 2.21 2.73 44.7% Joe Piskula 0.0 50 59 45.9% 19 14 56.7% 0.00 5.54 0.0% Mark Giordano 0.7 48 58 45.7% 14 15 48.3% 2.29 2.29 50.0% Scott Hannan 0.4 44 56 44.0% 14 17 44.4% 2.38 3.06 43.8% Clay Wilson 0.0 27 40 39.9% 4 9 33.3% 0.00 0.00 0.0% Anton Babchuk 1.1 36 63 36.6% 8 16 33.8% 1.90 2.28 45.5%
T.J. Brodie and Cory Sarich are doing just fine against the third lines. Brodie is generating more offense than anyone but Babchuk, but without being an absolute disaster defensively like the highly paid Russian, and Sarich is doing quite well for someone who usually starts in his own zone.
Special teams (explanation)
Calgary has fallen back down below the league average, but not because of Anton Babchuk, who is as good on the power play as he is bad at even strength. Mikael Backlund also made a big jump and could currently be their best option up front with the man advantage.
Player TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 Clay Wilson 1.7 0.0 346.2 Anton Babchuk 2.0 2.4 111.3 Mikael Backlund 1.1 4.1 93.3 David Moss 1.3 0.0 88.7 Blair Jones 0.4 0.0 87.9 Roman Horak 0.6 0.0 87.5 Lee Stempniak 1.8 2.3 82.3 Rene Bourque 2.9 2.7 81.1 Jay Bouwmeester 2.6 2.7 79.7 Jarome Iginla 3.3 4.2 78.3 Olli Jokinen 3.1 4.9 78.2 Chris Butler 0.8 3.5 74.0 Alex Tanguay 3.4 4.8 73.4 T.J. Brodie 2.0 3.2 71.0 Mark Giordano 3.5 3.0 70.0 Tim Jackman 0.4 0.0 67.8 Curtis Glencross 2.0 6.0 66.4 Derek Smith 1.4 5.2 65.1 Brendan Morrison 1.3 3.7 64.0 Blake Comeau 0.8 0.0 61.6
Last week we mentioned that Calgary was one of only two teams without a shorthanded goal, and as luck would have it the other (Anaheim Ducks) scored one this week, leaving the Flames as the last team to be shut-out while down a man. Let’s start a pool, who will be the first Flame to score a short-hander? Smart money is on Curtis Glencross.
Player TOI/GP CE/60 Jay Bouwmeester 3.7 86.8 Scott Hannan 2.7 79.8 Chris Butler 2.3 90.7 Curtis Glencross 2.3 87.1 Mark Giordano 2.2 92.6 Lee Stempniak 1.7 75.2 Rene Bourque 1.5 87.9 David Moss 1.5 143.1 Tom Kostopoulos 1.3 88.6 Blake Comeau 1.1 72.7 Alex Tanguay 0.9 70.3 Mikael Backlund 0.9 83.8 Olli Jokinen 0.6 76.2 Matt Stajan 0.6 139.5 Cory Sarich 0.5 132.7 Derek Smith 0.4 60.0 Blair Jones 0.3 71.4 Lance Bouma 0.3 0.0 Brendan Morrison 0.3 95.5 Roman Horak 0.3 115.2 Brett Carson 0.3 109.1
Kudos to Jay Bouwmeester who has really been carrying a heavy load in Mark Giordano’s absence, as Sutter is reluctant to trust anyone but him, Hannan and Butler while down a man.
Goaltending (explanation)
Only one Quality Start this week, which was Saturday’s home win over the Minnesota Wild. Why would they play a rookie on the road against the defending Stanley Cup champions, who are fast on their way to setting a record for the most 6-goal victories in a season?
Goalie GS QS QS% ESSV% Miikka Kiprusoff 34 20 58.8% .924 Leland Irving 4 3 75.0% .909 Henrik Karlsson 5 1 20.0% .904
Anyway, that’s how it looks after 14 weeks. To recap: Mikael Backlund is awesome but unlucky, Scott Hannan is struggling without Mark Giordano due to Calgary’s lack of any other defensemen who can play top-four minutes, and Anton Babchuk may really suck at even-strength, but has the skill to help one of the league’s worst power plays.
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