Black Box: Week 20
12 years ago
Calgary is yet to lose in regulation time in February, going 5-0-3 in that span, doubling their odds of qualifying for the post-season into the 49%-52% range, their highest of the season. However, they are still 27th in close-game shot-based possession metrics, and their -13 goal differential would certainly be the worst of any post-season participant, so they’re peddling uphill.
OZQoC Charts (explanation)
Calgary’s OZQoC chart demonstrates how Brent Sutter doesn’t subscribe to the popular coaching theory of slanting the ice in favour of certain players – everyone gets roughly the same opportunity to play in the offensive zone.
Calgary’s also a four-horse team on the blue line, making Cory Sarich a $3.6 million replacement player and Anton Babchuk a $2.5 million paperweight.
Even-Strength Scoring (explanation)
Since we wrote an article about his potential to come back to life, Mike Cammalleri has 5 points in 6 games. Thank you for your cooperation, sir!
Calgary’s top six enjoyed a lot of scoring this week, but that was despite poor possession-based metrics. Things could get pretty ugly should they regress any time soon, especially with Olli Jokinen.
Top-Six Forward ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Mikael Backlund 0.9 53 50 51.6% 16 14 51.7% 1.57 2.92 35.0% Mike Cammalleri 1.7 49 54 47.5% 17 20 45.3% 2.26 2.95 43.4% Alex Tanguay 2.2 48 57 45.6% 19 17 52.9% 2.98 2.34 56.0% Curtis Glencross 2.3 48 58 45.2% 14 17 45.7% 2.84 3.04 48.3% Jarome Iginla 2.1 48 60 44.7% 17 18 48.1% 2.61 2.55 50.6% Olli Jokinen 2.2 47 60 44.0% 15 18 46.2% 3.34 2.66 55.8%
Beyond when the top-six is playing, scoring really drops off at both ends of the ice, with the possible exception of quasi-top-sixer Lee Stempniak.
3rd Line Forward ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% David Moss 1.9 55 49 53.0% 11 14 43.3% 1.85 1.48 55.6% Lee Stempniak 1.9 54 51 51.3% 16 15 51.7% 2.61 2.70 49.2% Blake Comeau 0.9 49 51 48.9% 13 14 47.7% 1.19 2.30 34.1% Lance Bouma 0.8 45 53 46.1% 13 13 50.7% 1.15 1.15 50.0% Blair Jones 0.9 44 52 45.7% 19 19 50.6% 1.11 1.29 46.3%
One of this season’s biggest mysteries is how their veteran fourth line of Matt Stajan, Tim Jackman and Tom Kostopoulos can generally have possession of the puck more often than their opponents, but get outscored so incredibly badly. It’s especially puzzling since the exact opposite thing is happening to fellow depth players like Roman Horak and Paul Byron.
Depth Forward ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Matt Stajan 0.8 52 47 52.7% 13 13 49.4% 1.32 2.80 32.0% Tim Jackman 0.8 50 49 50.9% 11 12 47.8% 0.93 2.91 24.2% Tom Kostopoulos 0.7 50 52 49.1% 12 13 47.8% 1.42 2.64 35.0% Krys Kolanos 0.0 51 58 46.9% 11 10 52.0% 0.95 0.95 50.0% Greg Nemisz 0.0 34 43 44.5% 4 9 33.3% 0.00 0.00 0.0% P-L. Leblond 0.0 46 58 43.9% 8 12 40.0% 4.16 0.00 100.0% Roman Horak 1.3 40 52 43.3% 13 12 50.8% 1.98 1.59 55.5% Paul Byron 0.9 34 52 39.8% 11 11 50.0% 1.49 0.60 71.3% Raitis Ivanans 0.0 27 65 29.4% 5 27 16.7% 0.00 5.41 0.0%
On defense Butler is still carrying the bags (yeesh – sorry about that one). Scott Hannan’s continued slide has to be troubling – it looks like he might need to transition to a depth unit. Mark Giordano may have enjoyed some scoring last week but his possession numbers were miserable.
Top-4 Defense ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Chris Butler 0.6 50 56 46.9% 16 17 48.5% 2.49 2.43 50.6% Jay Bouwmeester 0.7 49 56 46.9% 16 17 47.6% 2.26 2.42 48.3% Mark Giordano 0.7 46 57 44.7% 13 14 48.6% 2.18 1.88 53.7% Scott Hannan 0.5 43 57 42.7% 13 17 43.0% 2.24 2.71 45.3%
One of Calgary’s bright spots is the respectable play of their depth defensemen T.J. Brodie, Cory Sarich and Derek Smith.
Depth Defense ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Brett Carson 0.0 70 41 63.4% 19 11 63.6% 0.00 5.41 0.0% T.J. Brodie 0.7 50 47 51.6% 14 13 51.9% 2.18 2.18 50.0% Cory Sarich 0.3 49 48 50.2% 13 12 52.2% 1.66 2.18 43.2% Derek Smith 0.8 50 50 49.9% 15 13 52.3% 2.08 1.82 53.3% Joe Piskula 0.0 50 59 45.9% 19 14 56.7% 0.00 5.54 0.0% Anton Babchuk 0.9 39 60 39.8% 8 17 32.5% 1.45 1.74 45.5% Clay Wilson 0.0 29 48 37.5% 5 12 28.6% 0.00 0.00 0.0%
Special teams (explanation)
Calgary remains league average with both their power play and their penalty killing, the former of which has required a little bit of luck, and the latter of which has been accomplished without a single short-handed goal – something no team has gone an entire season without in over a decade.
Primary Forwards TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 Mike Cammalleri 3.0 2.6 97.0 Olli Jokinen 3.1 5.3 82.3 Jarome Iginla 3.3 4.0 82.3 Alex Tanguay 3.4 4.7 78.7
While Calgary’s top four is humming away, and may even improve once Cammalleri starts catching some breaks, their secondary options have been hammered by injuries – and Coach Sutter seems to be giving up on the only one to remain standing (Krys Kolanos).
Secondary Forwards TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 David Moss 1.3 0.0 88.7 Mikael Backlund 1.1 3.9 85.0 Lee Stempniak 1.7 2.0 78.6 Krys Kolanos 1.5 0.0 75.4 Curtis Glencross 1.9 6.2 64.5
Calgary has a few depth options, but very few of them are particularly spectacular – Blair Jones is the only one with even a single point with the man advantage.
Depth Forwards TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 Roman Horak 0.6 0.0 84.9 Blair Jones 0.8 2.2 73.6 Tim Jackman 0.4 0.0 73.1 Blake Comeau 0.7 0.0 59.3
On defense Calgary leans heavily on their highly-paid pair of Jay Bouwmeester and Mark Giordano. T.J. Brodie and Derek Smith may occasionally look good on the scoresheet, but the Flames aren’t getting as many opportunities with them on the ice.
Defensemen TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 Clay Wilson 2.5 0.0 130.7 Anton Babchuk 1.9 3.8 99.5 Jay Bouwmeester 2.4 3.8 79.9 Chris Butler 0.7 2.9 79.7 Mark Giordano 3.3 2.4 78.6 T.J. Brodie 1.9 3.6 67.8 Derek Smith 1.4 5.2 65.1
The penalty killing department is where Calgary has been hit hardest by injuries – Blake Comeau and Tom Kostopoulos are the only ones of their six regular forwards currently on their feet.
Primary Forwards TOI/GP CE/60 Lee Stempniak 1.7 76.2 Blake Comeau 1.1 78.2 Tom Kostopoulos 1.2 86.2 Curtis Glencross 2.2 87.0 Mikael Backlund 1.0 90.5 David Moss 1.5 143.1
Calgary’s gone with Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen recently, which worked quite well for them earlier this season. Blair Jones and Mike Cammalleri could be another couple usable options.
Depth Forwards TOI/GP CE/60 Mike Cammalleri 0.8 69.0 Alex Tanguay 1.0 74.1 Olli Jokinen 0.5 79.5 Blair Jones 0.6 79.7 Roman Horak 0.2 115.8 Lance Bouma 0.4 125.5 Matt Stajan 0.6 127.0
The one bright spot of Scott Hannan’s season has been killing penalties, where he’s been Calgary’s best option, along with workhorse Jay Bouwmeester.
Primary Defense TOI/GP CE/60 Scott Hannan 2.5 82.8 Mark Giordano 1.9 88.2 Jay Bouwmeester 3.3 88.6 Chris Butler 2.2 91.6
Calgary rarely dips below the big four, preferring to rotate three defensemen rather than risk having anyone else on the ice when they’re down a man.
Depth Defense TOI/GP CE/60 Derek Smith 0.4 60.0 Brett Carson 0.3 109.1 Cory Sarich 0.5 112.3
Goaltending (explanation)
Miikka Kiprusoff was 2-for-3 on Quality Starts this week, maintaining his impressive 65% Quality Start percentage for another week. Kipper is in the top-ten in even-strength percentage (minimum 20 starts), just 2-3 points below last year’s Vezina winner and runner-up Tim Thomas and Pekka Rinne.
Goalie GS QS QS% ESSV% Miikka Kiprusoff 49 32 65.3% .932 Leland Irving 5 4 80.0% .922 Henrik Karlsson 5 1 20.0% .904
That’s how it looks under the hood after 20 weeks. Either Calgary is teasing us just long enough to cheat us of good returns on deadline-day trades, or laying the foundation for their first post-season appearance since Mike Keenan was behind the bench.
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