Can Andrew Mangiapane make it at the next level?

8 years ago

We’ve written a ton about Andrew Mangiapane around these parts this season, primarily because he’s racked up a ton of points in the Ontario Hockey League as part of a very good Barrie Colts team. But one of the most frequent questions I get on Twitter is in regards to Mangiapane’s chances at the next level.

The short answer to that question is “Well, how is he achieving OHL success?” I dug into his numbers from the last three seasons to figure out what he’s good at.

EVEN-STRENGTH GOALS

2013-14: 22 (0.324 per game)
2014-15: 23 (0.338 per game)
2015-16: 24 (0.545 per game)

In terms of every other kind of goal (empty-net, short-handed and power-play), Mangiapane had two in 2013-14, 20 in 2014-15 and 17 in 2015-16.

EVEN-STRENGTH PRIMARY ASSISTS

2013-14: 17
2014-15: 15
2015-16: 13

In terms of all other kinds of assists (empty-net, short-handed, power-play and secondary even-strength), Mangiapane had 10 in 2013-14, 46 in 2014-15 and so far 23 in 2015-16.

This suggests that a ton of Mangiapane’s production last year was dependent on power-play time. But it also suggests that he’s getting better at even-strength, despite being a small, small man. Compare Mangiapane with Hunter Smith – another guy drafted in his second year of draft eligibility – and you’ll note a difference, as Smith’s production was inarguably a product of his immense size rather than a jump in skill.

EVEN-STRENGTH PRIMARY POINTS

2013-14: 39 (0.574 per game)
2014-15: 38 (0.559 per game)
2015-16: 37 (0.841 per game)

That’s a pretty huge jump, and lends credence to the “Mangiapane’s getting better at even-strength” theory.

GAMES WITHOUT A POINT

2013-14: 34 (50% of games)
2014-15: 14 (20.6% of games)
2015-16: 7 (15.9% of games)

I use this as a metric looking at consistency. I mean, sometimes players just aren’t feeling it. But Mangiapane just finds ways to get onto the scoresheet. Often.

MULTI-POINT GAMES

2013-14: 12 (17.6% of games)
2014-15: 33 (48.5% of games)
2015-16: 23 (52.3% of games)

This is the flip-side of the previous measure. Sometimes, the puck just goes in. Mangiapane has gotten a bit better at stringing together multi-point games. Included in here: one hat-trick in 2013-14, two hat-tricks in 2014-15, and five hat-tricks in 2015-16.

SOME OHL COMPARISONS

Why compare Mangiapane to the following three players? Mangiapane was a draft-plus 1 selection of smaller stature. Smith was a draft-plus 1 selection, but more due to his Sept. 11 birthday than anything else (had he been born five days later, he wouldn’t have been eligible). Rieder and Trocheck, meanwhile, are pretty close to Mangiapane-size, though they are a little bigger.

(Bolded sections are for when each player was drafted.)

	Andrew Mangiapane	Hunter Smith	Tobias Rieder	Vincent Trocheck
Draft-Minus 1	n/a	15gp; 0g/1pt (0 g/gp) (0.067 pts/gp)	n/a	68gp; 15g/43pts (0.221 g/gp) (0.632 pts/gp)
Draft (first year eligible)	68gp; 24g/51pts (0.353 g/gp) (0.750 pt/gp)	30gp; 0g/1pt (0 g/gp) (0.033 pts/gp)	65gp; 23g/49pts (0.354 g/gp) (0.754 pts/gp)	68gp; 26g/62pts (0.382 g/gp) (0.912 pts/gp)
Draft-Plus 1 (or second year eligible)	68gp; 43g/104pts (0.632 g/gp) (1.529 pts/gp)	64gp; 16g/40pts (0.250 g/gp) (0.625 pts/gp)	60gp; 40g/84pts (0.667 g/gp) (1.400 pts/gp)	65gp; 29g/85pts (0.446 g/gp) (1.308 pts/gp)
Draft-Plus 2	44gp; 39g/75pts (0.886 g/gp) (1.705 pts/gp)	57gp; 23g/49pts (0.404 g/gp) (0.860 pts/gp)	52gp; 27g/56pts (0.519 g/gp) (1.08 pts/gp)	63gp; 50g/101pts (0.794 g/gp) (1.603 pts/gp)

THE VERDICT

Is Mangiapane rag-dolling younger OHLers? Nope. He’s still not very large.

Is Mangiapane relying upon power-play production? He was last season, but he’s not nearly as dependent on special teams time for offense than he was then.

Is Mangiapane an offensive threat for his team? Definitely, and at an increasingly large amount at even-strength.

And when you compare him to Rieder and Trocheck – two players of similar size who have made it as NHLers – his production at the same age is comparable (and actually a little bit better) with those players. If he’s managed to put up these kind of numbers with his size, I don’t see why he can’t be at least a productive, Paul Byron-esque AHLer. He’s definitely earned the opportunity to prove himself at the next level, and he’ll probably get the chance next season.