FGD 32: Back to back in Toronto (5pm MT, SN West)

Photo credit:Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Pike
2 years ago
Just 24 hours after picking up a big win, the Calgary Flames (15-13-3, 33 points) remain in Toronto play the Maple Leafs (19-10-2, 40 points) for the second half of a back-to-back in Canada’s largest city. Can the Flames pick up a sweep in the Six?
The puck drops just after 5 p.m. MT and you can catch the action on Sportsnet West (and the national feed) or on Sportsnet 960 The Fan.
For a view from the other side, visit the fine folks over at Leafs Nation!

The Flames

Projected lines, via Daily Faceoff:
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
Gaudreau – Monahan – Ritchie
Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane
Bennett – Ryan – Leivo
Giordano – Andersson
Hanifin – Tanev
Valimaki – Nesterov
David Rittich starts for the Flames, backed up by Jacob Markstrom (who played last night). The taxi squad is Artyom Zagidulin, Alex Petrovic, Zac Rinaldo, Buddy Robinson and Dominik Simon, while Oliver Kylington is the lone healthy active extra player. With the back-to-back, expect a few lineup tweaks.
The Flames have played five games under Darryl Sutter and won four of them. They never trailed in the four games they’ve won, and have only trailed for 55:21 (just over 10 minutes per game) – and all of that was against Edmonton in that 7-3 loss. So, the key for the Flames is to get a lead – they’ve shown the ability to defend well enough on most occasions when they’re up.

The Maple Leafs

Projected lines, via Daily Faceoff:
Thornton – Matthews – Marner
Galchenyuk – Tavares – Nylander
Mikheyev – Kerfoot – Hyman
Simmonds – Engvall – Spezza
Rielly – Brodie
Muzzin – Holl
Dermott – Bogosian
Jack Campbell is expected to start in net, backed up by Frederik Andersen. Their lone healthy active extra body is Travis Boyd, while their taxi squad is Michael Hutchinson, Martin Marincin, Timothy Liljegren, Alexander Barabanov, Nick Robertson and Nic Petan.
The Leafs are 1-6-0 in their last seven and in a span when they’re not playing a ton. The Flames were able to keep up with the Buds last night, but they’ll need to avoid the penalty box as Toronto got a ton of good looks, good shots and momentum from their man advantages – even if they didn’t score.

The numbers

Points (%)33 (.532)40 (.645)
Adjusted Corsi For50.9%51.1%
Expected Goals For52.0%52.5%
Power Play20.9%28.9%
Penalty Kill79.2%75.3%

The drive to 65

If you peruse most standings projections, it becomes apparent that 65 points probably gets you into the playoffs. That’s a 32-23-1 record, or thereabouts, or a .580 points percentage.
The Flames have an 15-13-3 record, 33 points, and an .532 points percentage. They need 32 more points to punch their ticket to the post-season with 25 games remaining, which would translate to a .640 points percentage over the remaining games.

Unfit to play report

The Flames are without Joakim Nordstrom.
The Leafs are healthy.

When last we met

The Flames have captured five of a possible 10 points from their games with Toronto so far, going 2-2-1.

Know thy enemy

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