Flames 2012-13 Prospects NHLE – October 23, 2012
By Kent Wilson
11 years agoI shared some qualitative observations of Calgary’s AHL prospects in the post below, so it’s about time I spiked that with some quantitative stuff. Of course, it’s much too early in the season to take anything substantive from a players stats line so far, but I plan to establish this database now and update it regularly as the year progresses.
As usual, I will be employing NHL equivalency (NHLE) to compare kids scattered across various leagues. If you’re unfamiliar, Gabriel Desjardins’ original article on the subject can be found here (warning, .pdf). Short version: it’s a method of translating a players output based on the quality of his league.
To the tables!
Flames Forward Prospects NHLE
| Forwards | League | PPG | Translation | NHLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Baertschi | AHL | 1.50 | 0.55* | 68 |
| John Gaudreau | NCAA | 1.67 | 0.41 | 56 |
| Roman Horak | AHL | 1.00 | 0.55* | 45 |
| Coda Gordon | CHL | 1.07 | 0.3 | 26 |
| Markus Granlund | SM-liiga | 0.57 | 0.54 | 25 |
| Mark Jankowski | NCAA | 0.75 | 0.41 | 25 |
| Max Reinhart | AHL | 0.25 | 0.55* | 11 |
| Bill Arnold | NCAA | 0.33 | 0.41 | 11 |
| Greg Nemisz | AHL | 0.00 | 0.55* | 0 |
| Paul Byron | AHL | 0.00 | 0.55* | 0 |
NHLE = potential NHL point total over an 82-game schedule
For the purposes of this exercise, I excluded some guys who aren’t prospects anymore (Backlund) or who aren’t going to rely on offensive output in any real way to make their way to the show (ie; low impact, replacement level guys) such as Lance Bouma or Akim Aliu.
Also, the AHL has a different translation factor than usual (0.55 vs 0.4) because the league measurably improves during lock-outs. Eric T investigated this issue recently and came up with the new, lock-out specefic ratio of 0.55 at NHLNumbers. O f course, if the lock-out ends sooner rather than later, the AHL NHLE will revert to its typical rate.
Finally, as mentioned in to the intro, nobody on this list has played enough for his numbers to be very meaningful. Baertschi, Gaudreau and Horak are off to goo starts, which is encouraging, but the sample size is way too small to attach any significance.
Also, remember that Nemisz and Byron have yet to play a game this year.
Flames Defense Prospects NHLE
| Defensemen | League | PPG | Translation | NHLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Brodie | AHL | 1.00 | 0.55 | 45 |
| Ryan Culkin | CHL | 1.09 | 0.3 | 27 |
| Tyler Wotherspoon | CHL | 0.70 | 0.3 | 17 |
| Brett Kulak | CHL | 0.50 | 0.3 | 12 |
| Patrick Seiloff | CHL | 0.23 | 0.3 | 6 |
| John Ramage | NCAA | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0 |
| Brady Lamb | AHL | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0 |
Point totals and translation factors are obviously less important for defenders, but since the organization has a couple of guys in the system who have the "two-way" label attached to them, I figured it would be worthwhile to look at anyways.
Again, early in the season, small sample, blah blah blah…
I plan to re-post these tables, perhaps monthly, as we move along. If anyone wants a certain player added to the analysis, please let me know.
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