Flames Comparables: Bourque and Glencross
12 years ago
Every Thursday we’re using the Snepsts system to project how many points each of the Flames may score this year. The Snepsts system, explained over at Hockey Prospectus, searches history for players with similar statistics (adjusted for era scoring levels) and uses their future performance as yardsticks for today’s.
Previously we’ve covered Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Olli Jokinen, Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan and Niklas Hagman. This week we’ll be looking at Rene Bourque and Curtis Glencross.
Rene Bourque, LW
The undrafted Rene Bourque finally broke into the NHL at age 24 with the Chicago Blackhawks, scoring 34 points in his rookie season. Once a Flame three years later, he regained that form with 21 goals and 40 points in just 58 games, before finishing 2nd to Iginla in goals (27), assists (31) and points (58) in 2009-10.
That strong season helped secure Bourque a six-year, $20 million dollar deal, with the requisite no-trade clause. Thanks to a very tight and accurate-looking pack of comparables, one of the more confident Snepsts projections last year called for Bourque to take a slight step back to 23 goals and 52 points, almost bang on with his 27 goals and 50 points. While some people saw that as a disappointment, the dispassionate eye of Snepsts saw it coming.
Age Player Season GP G A PTS 31 Nick Wasnie 1934-35 13 3 1 4 31 Marco Sturm 2009-10 76 22 15 37 30 Bill Guerin 2000-01 85 40 45 85 32 Yanic Perreault 2003-04 69 17 16 33 29 Ralph Backstrom 1966-67 69 13 26 39 31 Pat Verbeek 1995-96 69 36 37 73 28 Tony Granato 1992-93 81 28 34 62 29 Donald Audette 1998-99 49 19 19 38 29 Geoff Courtnall 1991-92 70 18 27 45 28 John Anderson 1985-86 79 20 32 52 VUKOTA 72 24 26 50 Worst (Wasnie) 72 18 7 25 Best (Verbeek) 72 37 38 75 Average 72 23 26 49
Given how often Bourque misses games, having averaged just 66 games per season in his six-season career, we’ll take Vukota’s games played estimate rather than use the customary 82. And over all his whopping 80 matches, Bourque is expected to score 20 goals and 44 points in 72 games, slightly less than the top ten would suggest.
Expect Bourque’s path to continue to follow players like Geoff Courtnall and Donald Audette, who were both also in Bourque’s comparables last season, but at different points of their careers. Their average results match both the top-ten average and even the VUKOTA projection exactly.
Optimists should instead study two other fairly comparable players – Pat Verbeek and Bill Guerin – who both establish a potential upside of a point-a-game pace this season. With the right opportunities with well-matched linemates and power play chances, it’s within Bourque’s abilities in the best-case scenario to lead the Flames in goals and points.
Curtis Glencross, LW
Glencross surprised many by finishing 3rd on the Flames with 24 goals last season, helping him score 43 points and top his previous career high of 40 points, set in his first season as a Flame in 2008-09. The undrafted winger’s got to an unfortunately late start, bouncing around the AHL and three NHL teams before landing in Calgary, but he’s certainly making up for lost time now.
Despite his occasional steps across the line on the ice, it’s hard not to cheer for Glencross, who gives generously to several local charities, and even playing at a discount to stay in Calgary. You almost have to wonder if it’s going to bother Glencross that ten people in the dressing room make more than him, with Anton Babchuk just $50,000 behind.
We didn’t include Glencross in our Snepsts analysis last year, but he had 98 matches, calling for 15 goals and 35 points in 79 games, a fair bit shy of his welcome totals of 24 goals and 43 points.
Age Player Season GP G A PTS 30 Mike McPhee 1990-91 64 17 17 34 27 Bill Touhey 1933-34 46 14 14 28 30 Ales Kotalik 2008-09 75 19 22 41 30 Ernie Hicke 1977-78 41 7 13 20 31 Kevin Miller 1996-97 69 13 16 29 27 Nik Antropov 2007-08 72 26 30 56 27 Tony McKegney 1985-86 70 10 18 28 27 Pierre Jarry 1976-77 21 7 11 18 29 Keith Jones 1997-98 23 3 7 10 29 Bob Kelly 1975-76 77 20 25 45 VUKOTA 71 19 21 40 Worst (McKegney) 71 10 18 28 Best (Jarry) 71 22 38 60 Average 71 17 23 40
Again we’ll use 71 games for our analysis instead of the customary 82, given that 71 is both the VUKOTA projection for games played, and also his average number of games played in his four-season career.
Ultimately both Snepsts and VUKOTA agree on a third 40-point season, but there are also three precedents for a 20-goal season: Ales Kotalik, Nik Antropov and Bob Kelly. On the flip side there are also three players struggling for 30 points: Kevin Miller, Tony McKegney and Keith Jones.
Glencross could easily finish anywhere in this range, it all depends on whether he can keep scoring, and fight off Calgary’s ample supply of secondary scorers for the prime opportunities with the best linemates.
Coming Up
David Moss and Brendan Morrison
Jay Bouwmeester, Mark Giordano and Anton Babchuk
Tom Kostopoulous, Tim Jackman, Cory Sarich, Chris Butler and Scott Hannan
Mikael Backlund and Brett Carson
Raitis Ivanans and Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond.
Jay Bouwmeester, Mark Giordano and Anton Babchuk
Tom Kostopoulous, Tim Jackman, Cory Sarich, Chris Butler and Scott Hannan
Mikael Backlund and Brett Carson
Raitis Ivanans and Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond.
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