Flames Comparables: Bouwmeester, Giordano and Babchuk
12 years ago
Every Thursday we’re using the Snepsts system to project how many points each of the Flames may score this year. The Snepsts system, explained over at Hockey Prospectus, searches history for players with similar statistics (adjusted for era scoring levels) and uses their future performance as yardsticks for today’s.
We’ve already looked at most of the Flames key forwards, including Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Olli Jokinen, Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Rene Bourque and Curtis Glencross. This week we’ll be looking at David Moss and Brendan Morrison. Today we’ll look at the key defensemen: Jay Bouwmeester, Mark Giordano and Anton Babchuk.
Jay Bouwmeester
Last year the average historical projection for the league’s 4th richest defenseman was 10 goals and 37 points, but instead JayBo dropped even further back from his 37-46 point four-year track record in Florida. In the end he managed just 4 goals and 24 points, not much better than his worst-case scenario, a 17-point Richard Smehlik-like season (Richard Smeh-like?), smack dab in the middle of Glen Wesley and Rick Lanz territory.
This year Snepsts has essentially given up on Bouwmeester’s upside, so brace yourself for something like the following, likely over the full 82 games just like the six previous seasons.
Age Player Season GP G A PTS 26 Gus Mortson 1950-51 60 3 12 15 27 Rick Lanz 1988-89 32 1 7 8 30 Bill Brydge 1931-32 48 2 14 16 26 Jim Morrison 1957-58 70 3 21 24 29 Brian Engblom 1983-84 80 1 20 21 27 Wally Stanowski 1946-47 51 3 18 21 29 Phil Russell 1981-82 71 3 18 21 27 Marty Burke 1931-32 48 3 11 14 27 Jason York 1997-98 73 3 14 17 29 Bucko McDonald 1943-44 50 5 8 13 VUKOTA 72 5 20 25 Worst (York) 82 3 16 19 Best (Stanowski) 82 4 29 33 Average 82 4 20 24
The comparables are very clear, and very tight: expect 19-33 points, much like Rick Lanz, whose statistic bear an eerie resemblance to Bouwmeester’s.
Jay Bouwmeester Season GP G A PTS 2002-08 389 38 123 161 2008-09 82 15 27 42 2009-10 82 3 26 29 2010-11 82 4 20 24 Rick Lanz Season GP G A PTS 1980-85 325 40 127 167 1985-86 75 15 38 53 1986-87 61 3 25 28 1987-88 75 6 22 28
Rick Lanz was a 7th overall pick (Bouwmeester was 3rd) scored 29 points in his rookie season with Vancouver at age 19 (Bouwmeester scored 16). After a similar sophomore season, Lanz went on to score 10-18 goals and 48-57 points in 3 of the following 4 seasons, much like JayBo. Then, like Bouwmeester, Lanz was shipped off to another team – Toronto in this case – where he managed a couple of sub-30 point seasons, before washing out.
Of course, Jay Bouwmeester is far better defensively than Rick Lanz, and a far more complete player all around. Nevertheless, there’s ample historical evidence that his high scoring days are over.
Mark Giordano
Last year Mark Giordano’s high-water scoring prediction was 8 goals and 37 assists for 45 points, using Duncan Keith’s historical similarity – and he practically nailed it (just 2 assists short)! Could the Flames really have a Duncan Keith on their hands?
Age Player Season GP G A PTS 26 Duncan Keith 2009-10 82 14 54 68 28 Kurtis Foster 2009-10 71 8 33 41 28 Marty McSorley 1991-92 71 5 18 23 27 Brent Sopel 2003-04 80 11 34 45 27 Tomas Jonsson 1987-88 72 4 31 35 30 Steve Smith 1993-94 57 4 19 23 28 Ted Green 1968-69 65 7 36 43 27 Dan McGillis 1999-00 68 4 14 18 27 Jason Woolley 1996-97 60 6 29 35 28 Igor Kravchuk 1994-95 36 6 10 16 VUKOTA 71 8 27 35 Worst (McGillis) 82 5 17 22 Best (Keith) 82 14 54 68 Average 82 9 34 43
For once VUKOTA is the pessimist! There’s historical precedent in both directions, but it is all centred around his current performance – scoring in the low-40s. And take a look at the upside – his statistics match Duncan Keith’s almost perfectly.
Mark Giordano Season GP G A PTS 2005-09 113 9 26 35 2009-10 82 11 19 30 2010-11 82 8 35 43 Duncan Keith Season GP G A PTS 2005-07 163 11 41 52 2007-08 82 12 20 32 2008-09 77 8 36 44
The next year for Keith was the big one – 14 goals, 55 assists, 69 points and a Norris Trophy! We’re not saying that Giordano is the next Duncan Keith, we’re saying that history suggests he has a very big upside.
Anton Babchuk
We can’t run standard Snepsts comparables on Anton Babchuk since it requires at least two consecutive NHL seasons, and Babchuk was in the KHL in 2009-10. However, he has scored 35 points in each of his past two NHL seasons, although that was while playing highly sheltered ice-time.
Instead we’ll search for all players within a year of his age last season (26), who scored within a goal and an assist of Bachuk’s 11 goals and 24 assists in 82 games – era-adjusted for scoring levels, of course – and see what happened to them.
VUKOTA projects 7 goals, 23 assists and 30 points in 68 games, but the 31 players we found together averages 11 goals and 23 assists for 82 games. One of the better case scenarios is Dan Boyle’s 54 points in 77 games, or Lubomir Visnovsky’s 31 points in 58 games. On the other hand, Babchuk could find himself more like Fredrick Olausson or Michel Petit, and be lucky to crack 20 points.
Coming Up
Tom Kostopoulous, Tim Jackman, and Mikael Backlund
Cory Sarich, Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Brett Carson
Derek Smith, Clay Wilson, T.J. Brodie and Brendan Mikkelson
Lance Bouma, Stefan Meyer, Paul Byron and Greg Nemisz
Raitis Ivanans, Guillaume Desbiens and Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond.
Cory Sarich, Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Brett Carson
Derek Smith, Clay Wilson, T.J. Brodie and Brendan Mikkelson
Lance Bouma, Stefan Meyer, Paul Byron and Greg Nemisz
Raitis Ivanans, Guillaume Desbiens and Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond.
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