Flames Comparables: Stempniak and Jokinen

12 years ago

Every Thursday we’re using the Snepsts system to project how many points each of the Flames may score this year. The Snepsts system, explained over at Hockey Prospectus, searches history for players with similar statistics (adjusted for era scoring levels) and uses their future performance as yardsticks for today’s.

Part 1 of our series covered Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay. This week we’ll be looking at Olli Jokinen and Daymond Langkow. Err … make that Lee Stempniak.

Lee Stempniak, RW

28-year-old utility winger Lee Stempniak, acquired for Daymond Langkow in a salary dump, is a classic do-it-all player. He can be a depth option on the power play and the penalty kill, and can provide secondary scoring at even-strength.

His strongest season was actually his second, when he scored 27 goals and 52 points for the St. Louis Blues as a 23-year-old in 2006-07. Establishing himself as more of a 40-point scorer in the following seasons, he eventually moved to the Phoenix Coyotes where he caught fire, shooting 29.2% to score 14 goals in the final 18 games, setting a new career high of 28 goals, to go with 48 points.

Last year his Snepsts projection accurately forecast his 19 goals based on 29 historical matches, but projected a little high in assists, with 26 assists – 7 more than he actually earned last year as a Coyote.

Age Player            Season  GP  G  A PTS
30 Mark Parrish       2007-08 66 16 14  30
26 Lorne Ferguson     1956-57 70 13 11  24
26 Bob Crawford       1985-86 68 10 16  26
28 Ross Lonsberry     1975-76 80 15 23  38
28 Ryan Malone        2007-08 77 27 24  51
29 Inge Hammarstrom   1976-77 78 20 15  35
27 Sergei Berezin     1998-99 76 38 23  61
26 Eric Nesterenko    1959-60 61 12 22  34
30 Anders Kallur      1982-83 55  4  6  10
28 Cliff Koroll       1974-75 80 22 27  49

VUKOTA                        69 19 20  39
Worst (Kallur)                82  6  9  15
Best (Berezin)                82 41 25  66
Average                       82 20 20  40

Stempniak’s 55 historical matches agree with this top ten, pegging him as a 40-point man with an even chance for 20 goals should he play all 82 games – having missed just 11 games in the past five seasons, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll be close.

There isn’t much downside to a player like Stempniak, whose post-rookie career low is last year’s decent 38 points, and he’s still a couple of years removed from where similar do-it-all forward Anders Kallur (the first European player to win the Stanley Cup) began his decline.

The upside is the real appeal of having Stempniak on the roster. Just as he caught fire when he first moved to Phoenix, he could find the same chemistry with Calgary’s ample supply of comparably skilled forwards, and have a season more similar to Sergei Berezin’s – who was also traded from Toronto to Phoenix at one point.

Of course, Berezin – who would go on to score the 10,000th goal in Montreal Canain history – struck instant chemistry with an in-his-prime Mats Sundin, consequently finishing 5th in the NHL in even-strength goals, so a 40-goal season is seriously pushing it.

While it’s more realistic that Stempniak’s high-water mark is already set (at 48-52 points), and he’s likely to continue in the 20-goal, 40-point range, he’s really a no-risk pick-up with tangible upside.

Olli Jokinen, C

Olli Jokinen’s history with Calgary is truly bizarre. He has to be one of the team’s most expensive players if you include both dollars and the cost of acquisition. The Flames traded Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and the 1st-round selection used on Brandon Gormley for him, then dealt him a season later to the Rangers with a reacquired (for Jim Vandermeer) Brandon Prust for two overpriced replacement players in Chris Higgins and Ales Kotalik.

Strangely, the Flames brought him back in the off-season at his maximum possible market value of $3.0 million, and ultimately had to give the Sabres Robyn Regehr to get Ales Kotalik’s contract off their hands. You could argue that having Jokinen has cost the Flames $3.0 million per season, Robyn Regehr, Brandon Prust, Jim Vandermeer, Matthew Lombardi and prospect Brandon Gormley.

Needless to say, expectations have always been high for Olli Jokinen that it’s probably impossible for him to fulfill them, short of regaining the mid-30-goal level he consistently reached back in his prime.

Unfortunately last year Snepsts had Jokinen down for 21 goals and 53 points, with a good chance of scoring even more if his shooting percentage improved from a terrible 6.4% back to 10% (he stopped at 8.2%). and that 60 points was a possibility, but likely pushing it. In the end, Jokinen wound up with 54 points, beating the projection by just a single point.

Age Player            Season  GP  G  A PTS
31 Fred Stanfield     1975-76 80 14 25  39
34 Todd Bertuzzi      2009-10 82 18 25  43
33 Vic Stasiuk        1962-63 36  6 11  17
35 Ulf Dahlen         2001-02 69 24 31  55
34 Shawn McEachern    2003-04 82 18 41  59
31 Joe Carveth        1949-50 71 14 21  35
32 Steve Rucchin      2003-04 82 21 25  46
34 Kelly Kisio        1993-94 51  6 20  26
31 Dennis Maruk       1986-87 67 12 23  35
32 Mark Johnson       1989-90 63 12 22  34

VUKOTA                        68 17 30  47
Worst (Stasiuk)               82 13 24  37
Best (Dahlen)                 82 29 36  65
Average                       82 17 29  46

Jokinen’s goal posts are pretty close together, with Kelly Kisio, Shawn McEachern and Joe Carveth all show up for the second year in a row. Let’s take a closer look at them, and remember these numbers are adjusted for scoring levels.

Olli Jokinen
1997-2009 723 206 248 454
2008-09    76  28  26  54
2009-10    82  15  34  51
2010-11    79  17  37  54

Kelly Kisio
1983-1990 521 117 225 342
1990-91    51  12  16  28
1991-92    48   9  21  30
1992-93    78  20  40  60

Shawn McEachern
1991-2000 593 167 179 346
2000-01    82  32  40  72
2001-02    80  16  33  49
2002-03    46  10  16  26

Joe Carveth
1940-1946 235 68 107 175
1946-47    51 18  17  35
1947-48    57  8  22  30
1948-49    60 15  28  43

Together Kisio, McEachern and Carveth would project 15 goals, 32 assists and 47 points for Jokinen this season, should he play all 82 games – making this one of the more probable projections.

Coming Up

September:
Matt Stajan and Niklas Hagman
Rene Bourque and Curtis Glencross
David Moss and Brendan Morrison

October:
Jay Bouwmeester, Mark Giordano and Anton Babchuk
Tom Kostopoulous, Tim Jackman, Cory Sarich, Chris Butler and Scott Hannan
Mikael Backlund and Brett Carson
Raitis Ivanans and Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond.

Flames Comparables: Stempniak and Jokinen

Check out these posts...