FLAMES’ CORE DRIVING POSSESSION

The Flames
are seeing a remarkable upswing in their possession in the last few
months.  At its lowest point, right
before and after New Year’s, the Flames rolling 10-game 5v5 close FF% was 39.4%
(near the bottom of the league).  It has
been steadily climbing since the dust up with the Canucks in January and today
(March 26, 2014) the rolling 10-game 5v5 FF% sits at a respectable 53.6%.  

The question is what is happening with this
club that is creating a constant and significant improvement of possession in
the past two months?

Recent
visualized Corsi analysis, provided by Justin, gives a hint to what might be
happening.  We can see there are a few
guys that are driving the boat – those being Backlund, Brodie and Giordano
(BBG) with honorable mentions to Cammalleri and Galiardi.  It’s clear that those three in particular are
possession beasts, despite facing the toughest competition on the team. BBG has
been so dominant, compared to the rest of the team, that Kent and I discussed
whether or not it was possible that it was these three that could equate to the
dramatic increase in possession.  The
theory we came up with was that the coaching staff was strategically placing BBG
on the ice together and this was leading to a positive feedback loop of
possession dominance that was boosting the team up from disaster possession
rates to pretty darn good. 

To
investigate whether or not this was the case, we took 10-game snapshots of the
dark days (the memorable low scoring streak around New Year’s) and the
entertaining and admirable March performance. 
Each game in the 10-game snapshot has been broken down, play-by-play, to
parcel out the Corsi (total shot attempts for – total shot attempts against) of
various scenarios (e.g., Backlund solo, Backlund and Giordano, Backlund and
Brodie, Backlund, Giordano and Brodie, etc.) to suss out if there were any
differences between the scenarios. 

Let’s have a
look…

At the low
point, every combination of Backlund, Giordano and Brodie, whether playing
together or by themselves, was better than when none of them were on the
ice.  The only exceptions were Brodie
playing by himself and Brodie playing with Backlund.  Those two situations were slightly worse than
when none of them were on the ice.  Both
instances had rather small sample sizes, however.

Today (the
high point), the same trend emerges, without the Brodie exceptions.  Every instance where any of Backlund, Brodie
and/or Giordano is on the ice leads to a higher possession rate than when none
of them are on the ice.  Interestingly,
the Corsi when none of the big three are on the ice has actually decreased
quite substantially in the current 10-game set to a pretty horrible 37% (keep
in mind: there are several instances when none of BBG is on the ice for the PP
and it’s still this bad). Obviously, BBG is having a huge effect on how the
Flames perform. Additionally,
some interesting things emerge between the two 10-game sets. 

First, the three
are clearly playing more together these days. 
Based on the possession rates, the three are on the ice at the same time
about 14% more now than they were earlier (about 33% overall). Whether it’s two
of them on the ice at a time or all three, it has increased in almost every
instance except for the Backlund – Brodie combination (coincidentally, the only
combination that hasn’t proved to work extremely well). 

Second,
Backlund is being used much more effectively nowadays than he was earlier.  His ice-time has only increased by about a
minute but the total Corsi attempts (for and against) when he’s on the ice has increased
by approx. 20%.  The increase in attempts
both ways can likely be attributed to playing with more skilled linemates and
in all situations (5v5, PP, PK and final minutes of a close game).

Third,
unlike Backlund, Giordano and Brodie are not playing any more now than they
were in the low-point 10-game set. 
They’re actually playing slightly less. 
However, Gio, today, finds himself on the ice with Backlund and/or
Brodie 86% of the time compared to 75% of the time before.  Brodie, less noticeably, is on the ice with
at least one of Backlund or Gio 82% of the time now compared to 78% of the time
before.

Fourth,
Backlund and Giordano are playing together much more now and they are
especially dominant.  Their Corsi over
the most recent 10-game set was a ridiculous 74%.  This is likely due to the fact that the two
of them are playing on the #1 PP together while Brodie is on the second unit.
But what’s important to note is that they also often play together on the top
penalty killing unit and the astronomical Corsi still persists.  Their penalty kill shift will often be much
shorter than their powerplay shift which provides some insight into the stark
difference in CF and CA but still.

Fifth, over
the past few months, Giordano and Brodie (aka Brodano) have solidified themselves as the # 1 D
unit for the Flames.  In the first
10-game set, Brodie and Gio were together only 58% of the time.  Today, the two are paired 67% of the time and
seem to be getting better by the game (as noted by the drastic change in their Corsi
from the first 10 game set – 56%, which was still incredible, to today – 64%).  The only time they don’t play together
nowadays is on special teams and the adjustment time after the PP or PK ends. 

Sixth,
Brodie appears to have had a rough patch in the first 10-game set but is back
in form now which is helping the Flames’ rising possession rates. His possession
when just he was on the ice was 39% in the ugly set.  Conversely, today, playing about 16% less by
himself than he was, his possession rates are right up there with Giordano and
Backlund at 50%.  It is important to note,
this possession rate includes significant penalty kill time without Giordano
and Backlund. 

Last, and
perhaps most interesting, is the difference when one of those players is on the
ice without the other two compared to when they are on the ice with one or
both.  Backlund, Giordano and Brodie are
still admirable possession players playing by themselves (50%, 49% and 50%,
respectively).  But together, any
combination, has yielded an average possession rate of 64%.  The eye test suggest that BBG feed off of
each other when they’re on the ice and this certainly provides evidence that
they should continue to do so forever and ever.  

The Flames
possession rise over the past few months is likely due to a multitude of
variables.  However, one significant
variable that appears to be playing a large role is the increase in mutual
playing time of the big three – Backlund, Giordano and Brodie.  Alone they can hold their own,
possession-wise, but in combinations of two or all three together is a whole
different story.  When playing together,
their possession rates are off the charts, verging into the elite category.
What’s more, based on the 10-game snap shots of now and the low-point of the
season, they seem to be getting better the more they play with each other.  This is something to be excited about as the
Flames, assuming they realize this dominance, can build around these three
players.  If the Flames can add a few
more possession dynamos to go along with the high-end skill they will likely be
drafting over the next couple of years, this rebuild could be shorter than
anybody ever anticipated.