Flames in March

 

 

It’s been a strange last leg for Calgary. The club has gone through consecutive five game winning and losing streaks in March, with the latter ironically occurring as the club has gotten healthier. Throw in Matt Stajan getting hot and Olli Jokinen falling off a cliff and you have perhaps the oddest month of the year for the Flames.

Frequent commenter the wolf asked me to look at the club’s underlying numbers over the last 15-games or so, specifically because the team’s results have sunk despite the return of various veterans. That seems counter-intuitive, but suggests maybe the club was better off playing the kids.

I’m going to do this a number of ways: first we’ll take a look at how the team has done overall this month by looking at possession numbers (shots, fenwick and corsi) and the the percentages (on-ice SH% and SV%). Then we’ll break things up into halves since the first part of the month was wholly different than the second part. The results are both interesting and instructive.

Before I reveal everything, let’s engage in a brief experiment…

Here are the possession numbers for each player this month. Instead of adding their percentages, I’ve included a "GRADE" column beside each of their names. Take a few moments and mentally grade each player based on his performance over the last little while. Use whatever scoring system you want (A to F, 1 to 5, etc) and you can even employ the possession rates to inform your marking (or not). Concentrate on just a few players who have stood out (good and bad) or look at the entire team if you want. 

The first group is the regular forwards, the second the regular defenders and the third the call-ups and kids whose samples are so small, all of their results should be taken with a grain of salt.

Now, here they are with the percentages included:

With your player grades in mind, take a look at each guys percentages and in particular his PDO. You’ll find almost invariably your best marks went to those with the highest percentages and your poor marks to those with the lowest.

Matt Stajan’s incredible revival and Jarome Iginla’s emergence as a Hart candidate are both narratives based on the more or less random fluctuation of percentages around a mean. On the other hand, Olli Jokinen has suffered a precipitous fall from grace even though his possession numbers have improved with the return of David Moss. Please keep in mind that Jokinen was leading the Flames in terms of PDO (104) heading into this month with a on-ice SH% north of 13%. When he was riding that wave, of course, Olli was celebrated as a guy who was "the most consistent player on the team" this year because he had "completely changed his game to be a capable two-way center". This was despite, of course, some fairly unimpressive possession rates at the time.

Blake Comeau may have been an exception to your grading rule because he ended up with a fairly decent PDO due to a really nice on-ice save percentage. However, the factor that more often determines perception for forwards is on-ice SH% and he suffered through month at 4.1% at even strength (league mean = 8%). That is despite the fact he had one of the very best possession rates on the team. This probably heightened the general dislike and frustration with Comeau in the Flames fanbase – no matter how much he had the puck in the offensive zone, his line almost never seemed to score.

The exercise isn’t to castigate anyone as blinkered or stupid, just to again highlight the role randomness and scoring outcomes has in shaping our view of players and teams as a whole. It’s always tempting to feel that the most recent streak is also the most indicative of a players abilities and worth, but the truth is natural variance plays a giant role in determining each guys percentages as it bounces around the mean.

We can investigate this further by looking at the Flames month of March split into the first and latter halves.

Here is the first 7 games.

Here is the the last 8 games.

For those too impatient to click and wait, here’s a summary of some key figures –

First half:

Second half:

You can see how various players percentages changed over the course of the month. Glencross and Jokinen in particular have seen their fortunes dip drastically, despite the fact they were two of the luckiest players on the squad up until recently. The top line was still technically lucky over the last 8 games or so, but nowhere near as fortunate as they had been to open March…particularly Jarome who rode an uncanny on-ice SH% of 19% through the first 7 games. He had previously been hovering around the league average of 8% by the way.

Giordano is an interesting case. Over the last two weeks his possession rate has been the best amongst regular blueliners and well above what he’s managed all year. This may be because he’s playing easier minutes now that Butler is back or seeing a lot more offensive zone ice with the team trailing late in games. Whatever it is, he has looked more like the player of old for whatever reason. Even a lousy on-ice SV% hasn’t been able to undermine his perceived (and apparently real) improvement.

The numbers to really pay attention to are the overall team results. Through their earlier winning streak, the Flames were below water in terms of shots and possession at even strength, but won thanks to a PDO of 103.2. As the team has become healthier they’ve been able to control shots and possession better, but the percentages have ironically collapsed (PDO = 98.5) resulting in that five game winless streak prior to last night.

Calgary’s ability to control the play has gradually improved as the month has gone on. This is due in part  to the return of useful players like Moss, Butler and Jones and in part it’s because their schedule has been littered with pretty lousy teams. Add in some playing to score effects since Calgary has trailed a bit more often in the last 8 games or so and you have better possession numbers.

However, the club’s shooting percentage cratered for a spell and Kipper went from excellent to merely human – and probably not for any significant reason besides randomness. This is why the team got better on paper, but suffered worse results.

Ironically, if you combine the first and second halves of March, the Flames stats are wholly average across the board: 50.2% corsi, 92.3 SV% and a 8.2% shooting percentage. The natural outcome of which is a mediocre .500 record when all is said and done.