Flames Scoring Projections
12 years ago
For the past couple of months we’ve been using the Snepsts System to search the NHL’s entire history for players with similar era-adjusted statistics as our beloved Flames, and then basing projections on what happened to those similar players. This week we’re going to bring it all together and see what the final scoring totals may look like at year’s end.
Snepsts GP G A PTS Jarome Iginla 82 30 38 68 Rene Bourque 72 23 26 49 Olli Jokinen 82 17 29 46 Alex Tanguay 79 13 32 45 Mark Giordano 82 9 34 43 Curtis Glencross 71 17 23 40 Lee Stempniak 82 20 20 40 Mikael Backlund 82 15 19 34 Anton Babchuk 82 11 23 34 Matt Stajan 82 10 23 33 Niklas Hagman 82 14 17 31 Brendan Morrison 70 9 18 27 Jay Bouwmeester 82 4 20 24 David Moss 56 9 10 19 Cory Sarich 70 4 10 14 Tom Kostopoulos 78 4 8 12 Chris Butler 53 2 9 11 Tim Jackman 82 4 6 10 Scott Hannan 80 1 5 6 Brett Carson 43 0 7 7
The Snepsts System finds historical players with similar era-adjusted scoring levels and trends, and lays out all the possible future paths for today’s players. With a little bit of further examination you can generally pick the most accurate spot in the range Snepsts provides, but for purposes of this exercise we just took the average outcomes.
As a group they would be expected to score 216 goals, roughly the same as Montreal last year, firmly in Los Angeles/Nashville/Toronto/Columbus range, 12 more than the Flames enjoyed two years ago in 2009-10. Jarome Iginla would remain the leading scorer in goals, assists, and points, trailed by Rene Bourque and Lee Stempniak in goals, and Mark Giordano and Alex Tanguay in assists.
Let’s compare these results to the similar but more optimistic VUKOTA system, which also predicts games played, and differs from Snepsts in that its based on more than just historical trends, and the trends it does use are post-expansion era only.
Vukota GP G A PTS Jarome Iginla 75 32 37 69 Rene Bourque 72 24 26 50 Alex Tanguay 69 15 33 48 Olli Jokinen 68 17 30 47 Curtis Glencross 71 19 21 40 Lee Stempniak 69 19 20 39 Brendan Morrison 59 10 25 35 Mark Giordano 71 8 27 35 Matt Stajan 66 10 24 34 Mikael Backlund 65 13 18 31 Niklas Hagman 63 14 16 30 Anton Babchuk 68 7 23 30 David Moss 56 14 14 28 Jay Bouwmeester 72 5 20 25 Tim Jackman 63 9 11 20 Tom Kostopoulos 62 7 10 17 Cory Sarich 62 3 11 14 Chris Butler 53 3 11 14 Paul Byron 30 6 7 13 Greg Nemisz 28 5 7 12 Clay Wilson 31 3 7 10 Lance Bouma 33 4 6 10 Scott Hannan 62 1 9 10 Stefan Meyer 31 4 5 9 Brett Carson 43 2 6 8 T.J. Brodie 25 2 5 7 Derek Smith 27 2 5 7 B. Mikkelson 34 1 4 5
That’s much better – now the Flames are looking at 259 goals, which is 9 more than last year, and roughly the same as Philadelphia, Detroit and Chicago, and just 3 short of Vancouver’s league lead.
This time there are only two 20-goal men – Iginla and Bourque, with Tanguay and Jokinen both edging out Giordano for 2nd in assists. As you can see the VUKOTA projection also includes the lesser players left out by Snepsts.
Let’s finish with the best-case scenario, where every Flames finishes at the very top of the range suggested by the Snepsts system – or the VUKOTA system, if it is still better. Every year there’s at least one team that does this, like the 2006-07 Sabres or the 2009-10 Avalanche. This year, why not the Flames? Here’s what it would look like.
Best Case GP G A PTS Jarome Iginla 82 37 51 88 Rene Bourque 72 37 38 75 Mark Giordano 82 14 54 68 Lee Stempniak 82 41 25 66 Alex Tanguay 79 19 46 65 Olli Jokinen 82 29 36 65 Curtis Glencross 71 22 38 60 Matt Stajan 82 19 40 59 Niklas Hagman 82 26 23 49 Brendan Morrison 70 22 25 47 David Moss 56 13 21 34 Mikael Backlund 82 15 19 34 Anton Babchuk 82 11 23 34 Jay Bouwmeester 82 4 29 33 Tim Jackman 63 9 11 20 Tom Kostopoulos 62 7 10 17 Cory Sarich 62 3 11 14 Chris Butler 53 3 11 14 Paul Byron 30 6 7 13 Greg Nemisz 28 5 7 12 Clay Wilson 31 3 7 10 Lance Bouma 33 4 6 10 Scott Hannan 62 1 9 10 Stefan Meyer 31 4 5 9 Brett Carson 43 2 6 8 T.J. Brodie 25 2 5 7 Derek Smith 27 2 5 7 B. Mikkelson 34 1 4 5
That may total 361 goals, but there’s also 1670 games instead of 1476, so they would actually end with 319. That’s about the same as Washington in 2009-10, which beat out Ottawa 2005-06 and Buffalo’s miracle 2006-07 season for post-lockout high.
The Flames would have an amazing seven 20-goal men with one right behind – and Lee Stempniak out-scoring Iginla and Bourque. Giordano would lead the team in assists and probably be in the mix for the Norris trophy as league’s best defenseman. A great team, no doubt!
Despite the unlikely nature of that best-case scenario, it’s probably best to wrap it up on that note. Unless it depresses you to be reminded of how good the team could be if it played its very best.
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