Flames Since the Boston Massacre

 

 

Since the humiliating 9-0 loss to the Boston Bruins, Calgary has won five of their last eight games and garnered points in six of them. That’s a fine turn around in results after one of the worst defeats in recent history. The story goes that the Flames have begun to play fundamentally better hockey in the aftermath of the Bruins debacle, but as always it’s worth checking the data to see if the reality matches the perception.

That seven game span has included teams of all stripes – the lousy (ANA, EDM, MIN), the middling (LAK, NJD) and the excellent (SJSX2). Five of the eight were also on home ice. It’s a relatively small sample of games, so it’s worth noting the context as we proceed.

Here’s how the team has fared at even strength in terms of shots at the net for and against. For those who don’t click links or dislike big tables, here is a summary:

Flames managed a +5 even strength goal differential from January 7- 24 despite a -36 shot differential and team wide corsi of -54 (total shots for and against at the net). In terms of ratios, that means Calgary scored 62% of the ES goals in spite of a shot percentage of 45% and a possession rate of 46.3%. 

As you can no doubt guess, that’s a fairly unlikely set of outcomes. The secret of the Flames success over that span was an average 8.1 ES SH% and an astronomical .959 SV%. For those familiar, that’s a PDO of 104. In other words, the Flames and Kipper have channeled their inner Minnesota Wild and Nik Backstorm (or, if you prefer, early season Oilers and Khabibulin) to crawl back into the race recently. That’s notable because, as well all know, neither of those teams were able to keep it up forever.

Although the Flames have kept things low event recently (most notably the last four or five games), the shots and possession ratios remain rather poor. While Calgary has certainly limited the damage at their own end of the ice, the defensive commitment has come at the cost of offensive zone penetration, time and chances. 

Brent Sutter was noted as saying recently that Kipper has played well (beyond elite, in fact) during Calgary’s resurgence, but that the team has also managed to limit the quality chances against. And fair enough, that’s been true recently (although not so much if you back to, say, the New Jersey game). That said, there’s no system in the league and no goalie in the world that can continue to suppress the bad guys to the tune of a .960 even strength save rate.

In addition, you could also argue the Flames have been pretty lucky when it comes to their overall 8.1 shooting percentage. After all, it’s not like they have been generating even an average amount of scoring chances most nights.

For further context, let’s compare this more recent 8-game stretch to the previous one which included the long road trip and loss to the Bruins:

Flames ended up with a -10 goal differential this time around. They garnered 24 more shots on net relative to January 7- 24, but also surrendered 23 more. Although the Flames blocked more shots recently, they also had more of their shots blocked previously. The shot/possession differentials and ratios therefore remain very similar: -35 or 45.7% of shots on net and -60 corsi or 45.8% corsi. The difference in win rate, of course, being the Flames SH% (5.9) and SV% (.905) for a PDO of 96.4. 

The truth, of course, is somewhere in the middle. Kipper isn’t going to continue to stop nearly 96% of the shots he sees at ES and nor was it likely the Flames goaltending talent is just 90.5%. The bounces weren’t kind to the Flames around the start of the new year, but the hockey gods have taken pity on Calgary since.

The real issue is the shot and possession numbers which have been depressingly, and consistently, poor. Even though Calgary has notably tightened up in the defensive and neutral zones the last couple of weeks, the cost at the good end of the ice has resulted in a concurrent drop in the club’s own offensive opportunities. It’s a unpleasant reminder that structure, systems play and even effort are ultimately subordinate to talent level in the NHL.

– Jarome Iginla is giving up a ton whenever he’s on the ice at ES and it doesn’t seem to matter whom he skates with. In the recent 8-game sample, Jarome’s on-ice shot ratio was (+46-72) 37% (!) and a corsi ratio of 41.7%. Remember that a completely average/unremarkable number in the NHL is 50% which is usually the minimum coaches shoot for in their match-up decisions.  

The prior 8-game segment? Iginla was at 39.8% of shots and a 43.5% corsi (probably elevated slightly because the Flames spent a bit more time chasing). The only thing keeping Jarome alfoat at 5on5 right now is outstanding percentages. His on-ice SH% in the older sample was .944 (despite a team-wide SV% of .905) and in the more recent it was .950. Given how much ice time Iginla gets, the Flames are going to start absolutely bleeding goals against once things regress for the captain.

– The only regular Flames skaters who managed to crest 50% possession rate recently were Mikael Backlund (50.5%), Mark Giordano (50.3%) and Tom Kostopolous (50.3%). Everyone else is south of middling. Almost everyone besides Backlund who faces the other teams best players is deep in the red.

– This analysis obviously has consequences for the Flames plans going forward – of they truly want to compete for a playoff spot, they will either have to hope Kipper will continue to pull the Hasek routine or the club will have to find some way to get to at least average when it comes to possession and shots. The former will rely on Kipper staying healthy, the team continuing to suppress the bad guys as well as possible and huge heaping of luck. The latter will depend on Feaster’s potential subtractions and additions.