FlamesNation Mailbag: Playoff performances, good and bad

After waiting for what felt like forever for the postseason to start, we’re finally in the midst of things. The Flames have had an okay start to their playoffs: a convincing, but not top of their game, Game 1 win, followed up by a poorly played Game 2 loss. The constant? Great goaltending. Everything else? Well, in most cases, there’s definitely room for improvement – so good thing it’s only two games in.

Mike Smith looks absolutely nothing like his regular season self, which is great news for the Flames. In the regular season, he posted a .898 save percentage: 53rd out of 60 goalies (minimum 20 games played). The only playoff goalies below him were Joonas Korpisalo (.897%), Martin Jones (.896%), and Aaron Dell (.886%).

Compare that to his playoff results through two games so far, where his .954% leads the pack. Korpisalo has yet to see the ice in the postseason, while Jones (.849%) and Dell (.875%) are faring as poorly as you’d expect based on their regular season results.

Will that last? It could, but remember, this is also comparing a sample size of 42 games to just two, and smart money would pay more attention to the 42 games. For the playoffs, you go with Smith as long as he continues to look to be at the top of his game; if he falters, you re-evaluate and determine if it’s worth sticking with him over giving David Rittich a chance.

The 2019-20 season, however, will be something else all together. The regular season is a marathon, not a sprint, and in 2018-19 Smith didn’t look ready for the marathon. His play cost the team points at times, and it’s all well and good that the Sharks went on a seven-game losing streak in March to basically hand the Flames the West, but those early, preventable losses could have been costly in a more competent division. When planning for an entire season you have to take the entire body of work into account, not just an arbitrary cutoff point when it was deemed he started to turn things around, and if you find you can improve on the entire body of work (which, again, he was 53rd out of 60 goalies in a minimum 20-game sample size), then you have to.

The counterpoint to this requires a couple of factors:

The first point we don’t yet know, so we can’t judge anything there. The second point, though, speaks to the Flames’ futility in finding a long-term netminder since Miikka Kiprusoff retired. Jay Feaster’s strategy was to go with unproven goalies playing in European leagues (they all failed). Brad Treliving’s strategy has been to acquire proven goaltenders already over 30 years in age (initial success, then failure), and also a couple of unproven goalies in European leagues (success pending). Aside from Mark Giordano, look at the core of this team: they’re all relatively young. Who’s the goalie to match them? Is it Rittich? Who else could it possibly be? At some point it has to be addressed: just as the forward depth was built, just as young defencemen were brought in.

It would make sense to re-sign Smith if he has a truly great, sustained playoffs and if there are no other feasible options available. Otherwise? Don’t overlook an entire season of results just because it doesn’t fit the desired recent narrative.

Next season’s cap is expected to have an upper limit of about $83 million. The Flames will already have nine forwards under contract, eight defencemen, and one goalie at a little over $66 million. That leaves them with a little under $17 million to sign four forwards and a goalie, with the potential for further flexibility (a defenceman could be demoted; Jon Gillies is the goalie but maybe it could be Artyom Zagidulin; there are still a lot of moving parts).

The most notable players who will need to be re-signed are Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane, and Rittich. Tkachuk is going to cost the lion’s share; let’s go with the $9 million estimate (though that’s probably on the higher end). That still leaves the Flames $8 million to sign Bennett (maybe $2-2.5 million, his regular season results still leave a fair bit to be desired), Mangiapane ($1.3 million, perhaps? He’s only just getting his career started and still has a lot to prove), and Rittich ($3 million? He had an up and down season). If Dillon Dube makes the Flames full time next season he carries a cool $778,333 cap hit. Everyone fits, with possible room to keep Garnet Hathaway should he want to come back at a reasonable price.

This is also assuming no moves on defence, in which there are a number of young defencemen fighting to become and/or stay full-timers. TJ Brodie ($4.65 million) could be traded to make room. Michael Stone ($3.5 million) could be facing a buyout if the Flames really need the extra cap space (that’s a lot for a seventh defenceman).

As for Smith: he currently takes up $4.25 million on the Flames’ cap. I would assume, should he come back, it would be on a one-year deal for a fair bit less (again: regular season results can’t be ignored). I would think spending a collective $4.25 million on both goalies – assuming no major moves at that position (i.e. they’re not signing Sergei Bobrovsky) – entirely reasonable.

Things will be tight, but we know Treliving has performed well in keeping cap hits down, so I think they’ll be fine, even with Tkachuk getting paid.

Speaking of Bennett, he’s an odd case. I wouldn’t go so far as to say long-term – he hasn’t come close to posting the results of a Mikael Backlund or Johnny Gaudreau – but I think he sticks around for a while yet, should he want to. He isn’t a player one worries about locking up for years to come, but he’s good depth that has a track record of strong playoff performances (though, as has been in a theme in this mailbag, regular season results can’t be ignored). He’ll also only be 23 to start next season: his restricted free agent years, at least, seem like a good starting point for the Flames.

I would have to guess – because I don’t actually know, and I don’t think anyone’s ever going to get a straight answer out of the Flames (most teams don’t speak poorly of their own players) – it’s due to James Neal’s reputation as a scorer. This is the first season of his career in which he’s failed to really produce offensively, and he has his moments in which it looks like he’s about to do something and then just doesn’t (a bad bounce, he loses track of the play, he can’t keep up, and everything in between).

That, and experience. The Flames went with Smith over Rittich because he has far more experience; it’s not a stretch to think that’s why they’re going with Neal over, say, Mangiapane. Smith’s current results speak for themselves and work in his favour; Neal’s do the opposite. At some point, you would think Mangiapane’s efforts and talent would be recognized and he’d get the promotion, but it seems to take some time to concede that the rookie might be better than the vet.

I really think that would be a mistake. TJ Brodie is one of this team’s top six defencemen, easily, and while he’s prone to bad games at times (like Game 2) he’s also still entirely capable of good games (like Game 1). If anything, his skating ability alone should keep him in the lineup; being able to cover as much ice as he does is valuable, and it’s not like he was the only defenceman giving up breakaways.

That doesn’t mean he has to stay on the top pairing, but he should at least stay in the lineup. He and Rasmus Andersson could swap partners (as they have in the regular season), and Brodie could remain an insurance policy if Andersson ends up overwhelmed on the top pairing (the alternative would be… nobody). If any defenceman draws out, it would likely be Oscar Fantenberg, who has played by far the least out of all Flames defenders (averaging 12:57 a game; Andersson has been getting 18:53, and Brodie 23:51).

Say, for example, Juuso Valimaki draws in: how about the Flames telling Brodie to focus primarily on covering for him? Again: his skating would allow him to do just that.

Brodie on the bottom pairing still gives the Flames a lot of good options. No Brodie at all takes a lot of them away. Oliver Kylington would probably be one of the closest comparables in sheer ability to cover the ice, and you definitely want Brodie in the lineup over Kylington at this stage of their careers. Any of the other options could very well find themselves in difficulty trying to keep up.

I would say yes, but then, I would also try to angle work to buy a jersey for you if it’s a requirement… if that’s feasible, that is, I don’t know your workplace. But a shirt should be acceptable either way. Jerseys are expensive!