FN Mailbag – February 13, 2015

It’s time for another edition of the FN Friday Mailbag and there’s lots to talk about. The trade deadline looms, wildcard teams are nipping at the Flames heels and the club continues to defy expectations (despite suffering two of its toughest losses of the season in the last week or so).

Let’s start with some questions about the Flames blueline. 

This will likely come down to the  perceived fit between the new guy and Wideman or Russell. That said, my eyes and gut say “Wideman”, because I think he struggles more often south of the redline and I think the coaching staff trusts him a little less defensively. 

Diaz’s future with the Flames depends on a number of factors: the development of Tyler Wotherspoon, the continued health/play of both Engelland and Smid and whether the team can acquire other, better defenders via trade or free agency. 

I think Diaz has been the best of a bad bunch on the third pairing this year, so it’s definitely possible he gets re-upped if a few other things fall into place. 

The closer the Flames are to a playoff spot on March 2, the more likely it is they won’t be moving Glencross for futures, even though I contend (like I did with Cammalleri), trading him would be the right move. As unexpectedly good as this season has been, the Flames are still a team that can’t really afford to let noteworthy assets walk away for nothing. 

Of interest to this discussion is a recent article by Travis Yost at TSN, looking at the value of different draft picks and the probability of getting an NHL player as you collect assets. Worth a read. 

Only if someone blew down the doors with an incredible offer, which is unlikely. 

The Flames are nicely set up for their goaltending succession plan moving forward. Hiller has proven he can be a capable NHL starter this year, which gives Joni Ortio a nice environment to come in as backup next year and learn the craft without any pressure to grab the starters job right away. That also leaves the AHL job up to Jon Gillies, who will probably turn pro next. 

Calgary should shop Ramo this year. They will have the opportunity to shop Hiller next season if it looks like Ortio will be able to grab the reins. 

Calgary’s ability to stay out of the penalty box is one of the “non-percentage-based” factors that has helped them exceed expectations this year. 

The Flames have been short-handed just 130 times so far. The median rate in the NHL is 174, a differential of 44 penalties. To put that in another light, Calgary has spent just 213 minutes killing penalties. The next best team has spend 234 minutes on the PK. Winnipeg, the worst team in the league by this measure, has spent over 398 minutes killing penalties. That’s a 185 minute differential, and the season isn’t even over yet. 

The Flames PK is a mediocre 79%, so it’s even more important they stay out of the box. 

Anyways, assuming a steady 79% kill rate, the Flames have saved about 10 goals versus the median penalty rate in the NHL. If Calgary was addicted to PIMs like Winnipeg, they likely would have given up an additional 22 goals (!) to date. In terms of standings value, that’s worth about 3 points and 7 points, respectively. 

A profound effect. Calgary’s season has been uncanny in a number of areas. Combined with their sky high shooting percentage, their weird proclivity for incredible 3rd periods and raw lack of penalties explained above, their performance in extra time is the other big contributor to the Flames Cinderella story. 

The Flames have gone beyond 60 minutes 13 times to date. Their record is an incredible 10-3, including a 3-1 record in the shoot-out. This is especially key because many of Calgary’s playoff spot competitors have struggled in extra time, including LAK (2-12), DAL (3-8), SJS (4-8) and MIN (4-7). 

As thought experiment, If you reversed the Kings and Flames fortunes in OT/SO (so 12-2 for LAK and 3-10 for CGY), LA would have additional 10 points, meaning they’d be at 70, tied with CHI for 4th in the Conference. Calgary, on the other hand, would drop 7 points leaving them at 56, ahead of only ARI and EDM in the West.