FN Mailbag: October 18, 2015

Five games in and the Flames are stumbling through a nightmarish start to the season. It’s way too early to say the regression gods are taking their revenge, but it’s certainly been a discouraging opening foray. The Flames have seen a lot of the bounces that favoured them last year go the opposite way so far while the opportunistic offense and last minute comebacks have been tragically absent. 

No one is panicking yet, but it’s not unfair to say that the team has to play a lot better very soon in order to be a going concern in the hyper competitive West. 

This week in the mailbag we look at (question the) coaching, goaltending and defense.

This question came through in a couple of variations.

Given what we’ve seen so far, I think it’s highly likely that Brodie and Gio are a pairing again once Brodie comes back. 

The Hamilton/Gio duo has been just short of disastrous. This can be put down to a number of factors, including Hamilton’s unfamiliarity with the systems and Gio returning from a long lay-off, but they’ve been fairly awful. Both players are too good for it to continue indefinitely, so maybe they’ll be reformed before Brodie gets back. If not, it’ll be Brodie/Gio as the top pairing again.

By now my position on the current goalie situation is clear: trade or demote Ramo and ride a Hiller/Ortio pairing this year.

As for what will happen next year, we’re probably too far out to guess. It will depend entirely on how all the guys mentioned perform this year and who is available via trade or on the UFA market in the summer. Goaltending is probably not something to sweat about currently: if the team still isn’t sure about Ortio or Gillies by the summer of 2016, they’ll have the option of re-signing Hiller/Ramo or acquiring someone else (there are always a few goalies kicking around). 

Speaking of which…

At this point, Im sure the team will trade whoever out of Hiller or Ramo garners interest. Unless another team gets extra desperate for some reason, I’m guessing they don’t get anything more than a mid level pick or prospect in return.

I doubt it. I don’t think Columbus will give up on Bobrovsky that quickly, nor will they think that any of the Flames goalies would be the solution should he somehow continue to struggle.

The Flames have a couple of clear problems right now. 

First of all, many of the key players on the team simply aren’t executing at a high level. Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton and to a lesser extent, Mikael Backlund – all of these guys have had rough starts to the season to one degree or another. Giordano in particular has struggled through perhaps the roughest stretch in recent memory. Monahan looks like he did in the playoffs last year – completely overwhelmed by quality opposition.

For the Flames to be successful, they’ll need better execution from this collection of guys at both ends of the ice.

It also looks like there might be systemic issues plaguing the team as well. First and foremost is the club’s strong reliance on stretch passes in transition. Though this scheme can result in odd man rushes and sudden break aways when executed well, it can also result in a very stilted, easily defended system if the opposition team is successful at cutting off passing lanes (or if your players aren’t pinpoint accurate in their headman passes).

To my eye, the Flames have had a very hard time implementing this transitional strategy most nights. There’s altogether too many icings, as well as passes into skates or behind players. As a result, the team has a lot trouble establishing a consistent attack. They also finds themselves on their heels all too often.

Nakladal’s problems are logistical. With Brodie and Smid set to return, the Flames are going to be forced to demote at least one of their existing defenders (likely Kulak since he isn’t subject to waivers) and another body besides (unless they get rid of a goalie before that point).

So for Nakladal to get the call up, the team will have to suffer more than a few injuries.

Poirier is merely a decent AHLer right now. He was way over his head during his cup of coffee last year and he had a very mediocre training camp this season. I suspect Poirier is going to need a full soak (at least three seasons in the AHL) before we’ll really know if he can be an NHLer or not.

Coaching is a tough thing to gauge, because a coach is limited by the roster he’s given. Great coaches do tend to have teams who are better at controlling the puck than not – or they at least make mediocre rosters middling at it.

The Flames were one of the worst teams in the league last year at puck possession and one of the worst possession clubs to make the play-offs in the modern era. To some degree, Hartley tailored his game plan to the roster he had – one that foregrounded collapsing, blocking shots and counter punching. That said, as his roster improves through organic development or acquisitions, Hartley must find systemic methods to get the puck in the offensive zone and keep it there. 

The Flames can’t be a team overly reliant on comebacks and opportunistic scoring to make hay. As many other upstarts have discovered, that is not a long term solution.