How does the Flames’ defending compare to other high-scoring defences?

Generating points from the blueline is an important component of a successful team. These days in the NHL, the more players you have in on the offence, the better – and that includes defence. And as commenter “smith” pointed out:

This comes from our look at just how impressive the Flames’ top defenders are when it comes to scoring points: they’re at the very top of the league.

Also important for defencemen? Actual defending. The Flames allowed the second-most goals against in the NHL at 5v5. Teams scored against them 168 times at even strength over the season; the only team worse than the Flames was the Edmonton Oilers (surprise!) who had 170 goals go against them at 5v5.

And as Brad Treliving was certain to emphasize in his post-season presser: that’s not just a goaltending stat, that’s a team stat. For as much as the Flames’ blueline has been great at putting points on the board, there was something fundamentally wrong with the team as a whole when it came to actually preventing goals.

So let’s take a look at how individual defencemen performed there.

For the sake of both the length of this post and my sanity, we’re only going to look at the individual defencemen on the top five most offensive bluelines in the NHL (as judged by groups of top fours; the list can be found in the link above). This is because while the main job of the defence is to actually defend, actually scoring is an important component as well. We want the best of both worlds.

To that end, the tables below will be ordered by corsi events against, fewest to most. Looking at just points against doesn’t necessarily give the full story – but seeing how often a defender prevents a shot attempt against his goalie should paint a clearer picture.

Numbers from War on Ice. Minimum 20 games played, excluding traded players. ZSO% is how often a player starts in the offensive zone versus the defensive zone; the higher the percentage, the more often they started in the offensive zone (i.e. easier playing circumstances). CA60 means “corsi events against per 60 minutes”, HDSCA60 means “high danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes”.

Compare the names at the top of the Flames’ table to the bottom. The bottom are (mostly) the old group that should be on their way out; the guys at the top are the new blood coming in.

Consider the Russell-Wideman defence pairing; contrast them with the numbers a Jokipakka-Nakladal pairing should have. True, the latter play fewer minutes, but that’s why we’re comparing stats on a per 60 basis – and the Russell-Wideman pairing was, simply, not good. Even having Smid or Engelland in place is a downgrade from the potential a Jokipakka-Nakladal bottom pairing holds.

That leaves the Flames’ big three. Giordano, Brodie, and Hamilton scored the most points – and Giordano and Brodie certainly weren’t problems defensively (although Hamilton was one of the worst offenders for high danger chances going against them; perhaps a suggestion he could man a more sheltered second pairing for the time being?). In fact, Giordano and Brodie post similar CA60 numbers as Weber and Josi in Nashville, a top pairing on a superior team, with worse zone starts.

The entire Flames team still gets buried in terms of allowing high danger chances against, however. 

Russell didn’t spend a ton of time with his new team during the regular season; however, he’s still right at the bottom. His overall numbers have improved, but that should be expected with his playing on a better team; it still hurts, though, that relative to the rest of his teammates, he still allows more to go against him, even with relatively easier zone starts (although he limited more high danger chances against than most of his teammates). 

Jokipakka, meanwhile, appeared to get better with the increased responsibility he had on the Flames. However, just like with Russell, limited sample sizes must be stressed here.

Compared to their fellow high-scoring bluelines, both the Flames and Stars are well behind the standards the Predators, Sharks, and Kings set defensively. The Flames give up the most CA60 on average with 57.00, while the Stars give up the most HDSCA60 on average with 11.58 – though neither is far behind the other when one flips the categories.

Consider: the Kings gave up the fewest 5v5 goals in the NHL with just 126 surrendered, while the Predators gave up 143 and the Sharks, 134. This would give the Kings one of the best bluelines in the entire NHL: high scoring, but also, incredibly affective defensively.

The Flames, meanwhile, gave up 168 5v5 goals; the Stars gave up 156, sixth worst in the NHL. These are two teams that relied on high-scoring to get the job done, and their defensive groups had to play a role in that. Dallas scored more goals, though – and even though they didn’t have great goaltending, their team average was still a full .12 points above Calgary’s.

And for all the Stars gave up, they simply had the puck much more than the Flames did: 52.6% CF to 48.0% at 5v5. 

Only three players in this group saw more than 60.00 CA60 against them: Alec Martinez, Dennis Wideman, and Kris Russell (when on Calgary). Alex Goligoski and Matt Tennyson were the worst when it came to HDSCA60, but immediately after them were John Klingberg, Wideman, Dougie Hamilton, and Russell (when on Calgary). That’s far too many Flames right at the bottom of these categories.

The Flames actually already appear well on their way towards fixing some of their defensive woes.

The simple act of exchanging Russell for Jyrki Jokipakka was an extremely productive move. If Calgary can find some way to ship out Wideman and play Jakub Nakladal in his place, then the bottom pairing is already that much better. And with Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and Ladislav Smid’s contracts set to expire after 2016-17, the Flames will be able to drop some of their worst defenders.

This does leave Hamilton as a potential issue, but for a couple of factors:

Russell and Wideman were often placed together on a highly sheltered second pairing. If the plan is to continue using Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie difficult situations and have a sheltered second, then Hamilton is the perfect candidate to run it.

At this point, it’s really just a matter of shedding dead weight and allowing players to develop.