It’s much too early to worry about James Neal

James Neal is arguably the one of the biggest free agent adds of Brad Treliving’s tenure. His arrival was supposed to elevate the Flames’ offence into the upper echelon of the league. Twelve games into the season, Neal hasn’t found his offensive touch quite yet, but should there be concern?

Neal has enjoyed a very productive NHL career thus far, renowned mainly for his scoring ability. He joined the Flames as a 31-year-old, and is signed to play through his age 35 season. Not exactly prime playing years for a hockey player per se, but someone with Neal’s scoring prowess should have no problem finding the back of the net and contributing to the Flames’ offence. Yet, with the season well underway, Neal only has two goals and one assist to his name. So what’s the deal?

Looking back over his previous four seasons as a member of the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights and comparing them to this year, it’s clear that his point production has suffered, but his play might not be too different at all. He might just be largely unlucky to start this segment of his career. Taking a look at the numbers, his slow start might just have an explanation after all.

All data via Natural Stat Trick.

Neal’s spent most of his time as a Flame on the third line, and his reduction in ice time is evident. Unless he gets a bump up to the first or second line, he’s likely going to be working with less ice time than he’s used to. Perhaps this speaks to the Flames’ offensive depth that they’re able to slot Neal into their third line, but in terms of opportunities to get onto the scoreboard, this is to Neal’s detriment.

Pat Steinberg recently wrote on where James Neal should fit in the lineup, and as it is still early in the season, there is plenty of time to experiment with line combinations.

In terms of 5v5 scoring, things haven’t quite gone Neal’s way yet. However, in terms of his individual offensive output, he’s still getting shots at very similar rates as he did when with Nashville and Vegas. There’s really no indication that his play has worsened since joining the Flames, but instead, it looks like a case of simply being snakebitten.

Speaking of being snakebitten, Neal’s most common linemate has been Sam Bennett by a large margin of time. He’s spent 81:16 of 5v5 ice time with Bennett, and his next most common linemates are Derek Ryan and Dillon Dube, at 43:34 and 41:06, respectively. If there was any other player who’s been unlucky, Bennett puts up a pretty decent argument for himself. Neal’s probably had a handful of assists that evaporated in front of both his and Bennett’s eyes as Bennett has seen his fair share of grade-A opportunities turn into extremely near misses. As one starts scoring, maybe so too will the other.

On top of that, playing with Ryan and Dube, who themselves are struggling on offence, probably add to Neal’s lack of production.

Looking at the five-man units that Neal’s been a part of, the 5v5 on-ice numbers aren’t too different year-to-year. While the numbers trend slightly more south this year, the differences just aren’t large enough to raise any red flags.

Nothing stands out as a reason to be alarmed, as Neal and his current linemates are playing at similar rates as his linemates from previous teams. The discrepancy between last season and this one is minimal, yet Neal was still productive as a Golden Knight. Conversely, his linemates in Nashville seem to have far better on-ice numbers, especially when it comes to generating scoring chances and high-danger opportunities. While that might be an indicator, there’s probably still yet better explanations.

Neal’s still being used on the powerplay, much like he has been in previous years. He’s still getting about two and half minutes of powerplay time per game, but hasn’t been able to score at all. Neal is firing pucks at the net as frequently as ever when on the man-advantage. However, the shots that he’s been shooting have not been high-danger. That alone might be the reason why his point production isn’t where it’s expected.

However, the Flames are well-versed with having a putrid powerplay, and this season offers little difference. From Neal’s perspective, this could be one of the worst powerplays he’s ever been a part of. It’s not clear how much of that can be blamed on Neal and how much on the Flames’ powerplay system on a whole, but it’s a definite area in need of immediate improvement.

It’s true, some part of that will be up to Neal, but the Flames must also figure out a powerplay system that actually works for them. There’s no reason that a powerplay with the skill level that the Flames have should be performing at its current level.

The numbers speak for themselves. It’s really mind-boggling just how poor the powerplay has performed so far. A powerplay shooting at 3.85% is unheard of and it’s likely a direct reason why Neal’s been held to such low point totals.

All in all, there’s no need to panic with Neal. He’s been solid as a Flame so far, and things should turn around sooner than not. If Bennett starts scoring, Neal will likely be a primary beneficiary of that. If the powerplay starts to convert, Neal will definitely be a beneficiary. There are much bigger areas of concern as the Flames continue to figure out their game, but it doesn’t look like Neal should be one.