Jay Bouwmeester’s Comparables
12 years ago
Jay Bouwmeester is a 28-year-old defenseman playing his 9th full NHL season, and whose basic career statistics are currently summarized like this.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 2010-11 82 4 20 24 1 121 6.4 2009-10 82 3 26 29 1 130 6.5 Previous 471 53 150 203 18 922 38.7
For the past two seasons we’ve used a system named after Vancouver legend Harold Snepsts to search NHL’s history for player’s similar to Calgary Flames like Jay Bouwmeester, and using their future performance to help set our expectations as objectively as possible.
There is a new version of the system coming out this off-season, and here’s a sneak peek at a dozen of the players that bubbled up as being comparable to Calgary’s top blue liner, what ultimately happened to each one, and what we can therefore conclude about Bouwmeester’s likely fate.
Doug Crossman
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1988-89 74 10 15 25 2 137 0.5 1987-88 76 9 29 38 6 153 6.9 Previous 475 51 199 250 25 804 45.9
Key Differences: Doug Crossman was a 6th round choice, and rarely found himself as the top-line, go-to defenseman (that happens when you’re on the same team as Mark Howe).
What Happened: Crossman was traded to the New York Islanders – one of the seven trades in which he was involved in a five-year period, and had a monster season, scoring a career-high 59 points. He played four more seasons, scoring 92 points in 209 games.
Phil Russell
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1981-82 71 4 25 29 0 114 6.9 1980-81 80 6 23 29 1 109 6.1 Previous 597 59 213 272 13 1189 83.8
Key Differences: Phil Russell had a slightly longer and better career to this point than Bouwmeester, and played a far grittier and harder-hitting style.
What Happened: Russell scored a career-high 13 goals and added 18 assists for the Calgary Flames, then enjoyed three more seasons with 63 points in 190 games, including a 3rd All-Star appearance in 1985.
Rick Lanz
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1987-88 75 6 22 28 3 145 -1.1 1986-87 61 3 25 28 2 130 2.3 Previous 400 55 165 220 36 960 46.1
Key Differences: Rick Lanz was more of a power play specialist than Bouwmeester, but was generally lacking defensively.
What Happened: Lanz’ career was effectively over when his scoring dropped, he managed just 10 points in 33 games the rest of the way.
Paul Mara
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 2007-08 61 1 16 17 0 80 5.1 2006-07 78 5 18 23 1 100 3.5 Previous 424 52 126 178 19 661 35.6
Key Differences: Mara takes slightly fewer shots, and perhaps couldn’t move the puck as well as Bouwmeester.
What Happened: Mara managed one more decent season: 21 points in 76 games for the Rangers on the depth pairings, before fading away completely with just 14 points in 95 games over the next two seasons.
Greg Smith
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1984-85 73 2 18 20 0 54 0.5 1983-84 76 3 20 23 0 63 6.1 Previous 506 45 157 202 11 906 40.2
Key Differences: Greg Smith was hardly a blue chipper – a 4th round pick who only fought his way into the NHL by playing on awful teams. Though not as rough as Russell, he played a grittier style than Bouwmeester too.
What Happened: Smith scored 27 points in 76 games, then just 16 points in 99 games over the next two years.
Dan Hamhuis
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 2010-11 64 6 17 23 2 109 9.2 2009-10 78 5 19 24 0 115 7.2 Previous 405 27 110 137 8 596 36.2
Key Differences: Dan Hamhuis isn’t used on the power play, and his shots-per-game and scoring consequently doesn’t match Bouwmeester’s in his prime.
What Happened: Hamhuis has 26 points in 58 games this season – a slight bit better than Bouwmeester.
Jean Potvin
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1978-79 64 5 16 21 2 89 4.1 1977-78 74 4 24 28 0 121 6.9 Previous 425 50 168 218 21 648 48.4
Key Differences: The much smaller Jean Potvin took far fewer shots, but in his prime managed a monster 72-point season for the New York Islanders in 1975-76.
What Happened: Potvin scored 21 points in 64 games before heading back to Long Island, where he scored 20 points in his 50 remaining games spread out over two seasons.
Charlie Huddy
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1986-87 58 4 15 19 0 75 4.2 1985-86 76 6 35 41 1 151 3.6 Previous 284 41 131 172 14 565 34.7
Key Differences: Charlie Huddy got a slightly later start to his career, but played on an incredible team, once led the league in plus/minus, and had won 3 Stanley Cups by this point.
What Happened: Huddy played nine more seasons, and won 2 more Stanley Cups. He scored back-to-back 40+ point seasons, and then settled down into a consistent 23-27 point scorer for four more.
Derian Hatcher
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 2001-02 80 4 21 25 1 111 9.9 2000-01 80 2 21 23 1 97 7.7 Previous 585 57 159 216 12 840 75.7
Key Differences: Almost as physical as Russell, according to GVT Derian Hatcher had made almost twice the over-all contributions as Bouwmeester by this stage of his career.
What Happened: Hatcher played five more seasons, including his fifth 30-point campaign in 2002-03 with the Dallas Stars. He scored 37 points in 218 games after that, as a top-four defenseman.
Dmitry Yushkevich
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 2000-01 81 5 19 24 1 110 5.6 1999-00 77 3 24 27 2 103 5.3 Previous 490 26 115 141 9 753 22.8
Key Differences: Dmitry Yushkevich was a 6th round pick and much shorter than Bouwmeester. More importantly he didn’t play much on the power play, and therefore had much lighter scoring, but unlike Hamhuis, didn’t make up for this shortfall with superior (or even equivalent) defensive abilities.
What Happened: Yushkevich played two more seasons, scoring 33 points in 138 games.
Ron Hainsey
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 2010-11 82 3 16 19 0 83 6.0 2009-10 80 5 21 26 0 121 5.2 Previous 326 26 98 124 20 549 25.4
Key Differences: Despite ample power-play opportunities in his earlier years, Hainsey wasn’t quite the same scorer as Bouwmeester, and was a step behind defensively too.
What Happened: Hainsey has 9 points in 36 games as a top-four blueliner for the Winnipeg Jets this season
Rick Green
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots GVT 1982-83 66 2 24 26 1 71 5.9 1981-82 65 3 25 28 1 91 4.4 Previous 312 28 102 130 9 531 11.0
Key Differences: A 1st-overall selection in 1976, Rick Green was more of a defensive-minded player than Bouwmeester, especially by this stage of his career – he only twice topped 30 points in a season.
What Happened: Green played seven more seasons, though never topping 20 points, and won a Stanley Cup as one of Montreal’s top shut-down guys in 1985-86.
The Verdict
Twelve players, all with similar seasons and histories to Jay Bouwmeester. Those who lacked a strong defensive game were essentially done, like Yushkevich, Potvin, Smith, Mara, Lanz and (probably) Hainsey. Those with strong defensive games enjoyed between three to seven more seasons, like Russell, Hatcher, Green and (probably) Hamhuis. Those who managed to get their scoring back (if only temporarily) also managed to keep going for four to nine more seasons, like Crossman and Huddy.
Jay Bouwmeester remains on contract for two more seasons, with a cap hit of $6.68 million per season – the fifth highest among defensemen (Hainsey and Hamuis are both $4.5 million). Based on these comparables, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever top 30 points a season in this contract, and that he’ll be relying on his defensive abilities to keep his career going much longer when it’s done.
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