Realignment and the Flames, Part 2

 

 

The obvious secondary off-shoot of the Calgary Flames being part of the NHL’s recent realignment is the changing composition of the Western Conference. Not only is Calgary part of a re-constituted Pacific Division, they’re also now part of a Western Conference that has changed fairly drastically as well.

Here’s a brief look at the rest of the Western Conference and how things have changed for the Flames.

Aside from the (since-disbanded) Northwest Division, the old Western Conference also involved the old Pacific Division and the old Central Division. The ten West-but-not-Northwest teams the Flames faced on a regular basis were Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles, Nashville, Phoenix, St. Louis and San Jose.

The Flames record over the past three seasons against these teams varied quite a bit:

7-2-2 against the Stars
6-5-0 against the Predators
6-5-0 against the Blues
5-4-2 against the Blue Jackets
5-4-2 against the Red Wings
4-5-2 against the Coyotes
4-5-2 against the Sharks
4-6-1 against the Blackhawks
3-4-4 against the Ducks
3-6-2 against the Kings

Collectively, the Flames went 47-46-17 against the remainder of the old Western Conference, earning just over 50% of their available points. Half of the available regular season points over a full season would be, duh, 82 points, which would put them well outside the playoff picture, but decently outside the draft lottery picture as well.

Under the old scheduling system, the Flames played each of their conference opponents four times apiece, so they accounted collectively for 40 games. On average, the Flames would be expected to get about 40 points out of their conference/non-division opponents.

Oddly, Calgary posted identical records against the Red Wings and Blue Jackets, and they’re both off to the Eastern Conference.

The new Western Conference contains just two divisions and 14 teams. The other main division, aside from the Pacific, is the new Central Division, comprised partially of members of the old Central Division.

11-4-1 against the Avalanche
8-5-2 against the Wild
7-2-2 against the Stars
6-5-0 against the Predators
6-5-0 against the Blues
4-6-1 against the Blackhawks
1-0-0 against the Jets

On the whole, the Flames put up a 43-27-6 record against members of the realigned Central Division, which accounted for just over 60% of their points. While they’re unlikely to keep that pace up this year, that would translate into 99 points over a full 82 games. Optimism!

Under the new scheduling set-up, the Flames will play just 21 games against the Central – three games against each – and a 60% points percentage would generate 25 points. Again, that’s probably reaching a bit given where the roster is at this point. 

The Central Division has three playoff spots of its own, and shares in two “at-large” berths with the Northwest. The Blackhawks and Blues probably have two spots locked down, and the Wild made the playoffs last season. The Avalanche are bound to be better. In short, the Flames will be hoping to get one of the two “at-large” berths – as getting one of the three Northwest Division spots will be tough – but they face similarly tough sledding in terms of those berths, too.

The realignment of the Central Division helps the Flames chances, but considering the team’s heading into a rebuilding phase, it’d be unrealistic to expect them to get 60% of the available points against an entire division for a whole season. Heck, it’d be a pretty good accomplishment for a team in the state that Calgary is in to go .500 against a division for a season.

If 97 points is the playoff cut-off – and recent history suggests that it is – the projected points total for the Flames via their 50 games against their conference opponents would give them 52 points. They’d need 45 points in their remaining 32 games against the Eastern Conference to make the post-season.

Of course, that is likely all moot, but it gives you some context heading into the new season and new format.