Scouting Teams Make Their Names In Later Rounds

Tod Button has been Calgary’s head of amateur scouting since late 2001. General managers have come and gone under his watch – if you include interim GMs, he’s on his fifth – but Button soldiers on despite Calgary’s shaky record in the first round.

An explanation as to why Button is still in the big scouting chair may be gleaned from a look at the later-round picks; general managers tend to be pretty hands-on when it comes to their shiny toys in the first round, but the scouting team typically calls the shots the later into the proceedings you go.

Darryl Sutter traded away the vast majority of his second round picks during his tenure. As GM, the Flames only chosen in the second round twice, and only once using their own second rounder. They’ve had a lot more in recent years, but…wow, that’s a lot of wasted picks. Granted, Wahl was hampered by injuries, but in general this is an unimpressive lot.

I’m splitting hairs a bit between “good” and “decent.” I’m choosing to judge NHL regulars as “good picks,” and guys that were bubble players but had some valuable as decent. Here, you can see that the Flames fared a lot better than in the second round. Lots of bottom-six energy and gritty players that ended up becoming decent NHLers.

Here’s where reputations begin to get made. Once you hit the fourth round, unless a draft is quite deep, you’re flying blind or relying on gut instincts and information from your network of scouts. Gaudreau and Brodie are both huge, huge pieces for the Flames going forward, and they found them mid-way through the proceedings. You’ll also notice longer and longer lists of whiffs as we go deeper, typically. That’s because as you get further into the draft, you get players with more apparent deficiencies than earlier-on.

Tons and tons of stretches and gambles here, with a lot of European players relative to the other rounds. But hey, here’s Micheal Ferland – who may get upgraded to “good” if he becomes a regular this season. I put Mickey Renaud in his own category, as he died tragically and you can’t really blame the scouting staff – or anybody, for that matter.

The Flames found veteran back-up Curtis “McBackup” McElhinney late in 2002 and depth defender Adam Pardy in 2004. I don’t know what it says about the Flames organization that their scouts are more likely to find NHL regulars late in the draft as early-on, but that’s basically what has happened. Ortio can be upgraded to “good” with a season as a competent NHL back-up. Brossoit’s not in the organization anymore, but he (a) had enough value to help Calgary get Ladislav Smid in a trade and (b) has been quite good in the minors.

Lots of no-names here, aside from 2001’s David Moss and 2002’s van der Gulik, who has been bouncing around the NHL for years. Patrick Holland stands out among the wash-outs, as he was a piece of the trade to Montreal that got Calgary the combination of Karri Ramo and Mike Cammalleri – so there was some value to that pick.

I wasn’t going to include the 8th and 9th rounds, but Button’s scouts did find journeyman NHLer Adam Cracknell in the 9th round in 2004, so that’s a minor victory for that group.

The moral of this story is to hold onto draft picks, folks. With the scouting team that the Calgary Flames have, there’s almost as good a chance that their fifth or sixth rounders will become productive NHLers as their first rounders. There’s something both sad and exciting in that circumstance.

For the curious, Calgary’s 2015 picks include a first, three seconds, two thirds, a fifth, a sixth and a seventh. The six picks in the first three rounds actually is the exact same set-up as they had in 1997. That year, they chose Daniel Tkazcuk (1st), Evan Lindsay (2nd), John Tripp (2nd), Dimitri Kokorev (2nd), Derek Schultz (3rd) and Erik Andersson (3rd) with their picks. The six players combined for 31 NHL games.

Let’s hope this year turns out a little better for the Flames.