Setting expectations for the 2015 Flames draft class

Training camp is almost here, so we’re taking a trip down memory lane and checking out previous Calgary Flames draft classes. Which picks are doing well?
Which are doing poorly? And what are reasonable expectations for their
performances this coming season?

Onto the 2015 NHL Draft class! (NHLE calculations from the most recent Hockey Abstract revisions.)

(Draft year NHLE was 25.1.) Andersson’s had a couple really nice years, with consistent production on a consistently good hockey team. Granted, he seems like a sure bet to dip in production a bit this coming season (since history says defensemen typically do so as they adjust to the pro game), but he also seems like a player that will get a ton of special teams time (and top four minutes) with Stockton. For the curious, maintaining last season’s 24.6 NHLE in the AHL would take 40 points.

(Draft year NHLE was 13.7.) Kylington was drafted out of the Swedish Hockey League and saw his numbers dip ever-so-slightly (when controlling for league differences) when he made the jump to the smaller North American ice. The Flames seem confident that this is as rough as his game is going to get, so don’t be shocked if his production upticks significantly this season, since he’ll get a ton of ice time both at even strength and the power-play. And he’s only 19 years old.

(Draft year NHLE was 13.5.) Karnaukhov fought injuries last year, resulting in him running in place rather than improving. Then he opted to sign with CSKA Moscow… and ended up not making their KHL roster, so he’s in the Russian junior league. His production points-wise will be good, but he’s in a league that produces so few NHLers that there’s no commonly accepted NHLE conversion.

(Draft year NHLE was 40.1.) Drafted in his second year of eligibility, Mangiapane followed up a really good season with another, even better, season. He’s almost destined to under-perform in the AHL (relative to his OHL mastery): a 47.1 NHLE in the AHL would be 83 points (in 68 games). Heck, a point-per-game year would be a 38.5 NHLE. He’ll get a ton of opportunities from the AHL coaching staff and be put in situations where he can score… but there’s a big difference between scoring against teenagers and scoring against grown-ass men. If he cracks 40 points as a rookie, that’d be good. If he cracks 50 points as a rookie, do a cartwheel.

(Draft year NHLE was 1.5.) Let’s be honest here: Bruce was not drafted for offense. I mean… his NHLE was 1.5. That’s insanely low. He’s played two full seasons in the OHL and barely scored any points. If you combine his NHLE from his first two seasons in the OHL, it’s still crazy-low. Anyway, he’ll be a regular in the OHL this year. His scoring rate will be slightly higher. It still won’t be very high.